Hurdles to building a stable Afghan regime

In military parlance, it's called gathering in the victory: turning military success into a sustained win by making sure the political goals that justified war are achieved.

With the US-backed military effort in Afghanistan chalking up a rapid succession of tactical victories, officials are turning with urgency to what may be the far more difficult task of setting up a stable - and politically acceptable - government in Kabul.

For Afghanistan, that means replacing the hard-line Taliban regime with an effective national government that represents all the Afghan people. For the United States, that also means the Al Qaeda terrorist organization won't have a home in the country.

But getting there won't be easy. To begin with, US officials warn that, as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday, "We still have a ways to go" on the military front. Also, the US, the United Nations, and a growing list of countries keenly interested in Afghanistan's future must create a political solution at a time when just one of the country's forces, the Northern Alliance, has the upper hand. Already, this force is showing some resistance to outside mediation.

Broadly, stabilizing Afghanistan is expected to take two major steps. First, some kind of security force is likely to be sent in under the UN banner and made up of soldiers from predominantly Muslim countries. Second, a provisional government drawing from all of Afghanistan's tribes and ethnic populations will probably be set up - perhaps for a couple of years and under a unifying representative like the exiled former king, Mohammad Zahir Shah.

According to a blueprint drawn up by the UN's special envoy for Afghanistan, Lakhdar Brahimi, that would bridge the installation of a more permanent government, perhaps by a traditional loya jirga or grand council of Afghan tribal leaders.

In New York on Tuesday, Mr. Brahimi outlined to the UN Security Council a plan for a two-year transitional government. He said the UN would help organize a security force, to be manned largely by Muslim countries. But he also said it could not be a traditional UN peacekeeping force, which would take too long to assemble.

In Washington, President Bush expressed support for the UN effort in Afghanistan. But he said any post-Taliban government will have to be open to all ethnic groups, must not export "either terrorism or drugs," and must respect human rights - including freedom of religion.

Mr. Bush's words and a whirlwind of diplomatic efforts reflect underlying concern that military success against the Taliban and Al Qaeda may not fulfill the diplomatic goals. Officials are mindful that the alliance - already accused of atrocities against Taliban soldiers - was not a magnanimous ruler when it controlled Afghanistan in the early 1990s.

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