China's new balancing act

After years of rapid economic development and mounting regional clout, China has regarded itself as the preeminent Pacific Rim state if not the world's newest superpower.

Yet in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks, a major internal reassessment is taking place among elites in Beijing.

Sudden geopolitical changes in Asia, the relative ease with which the US has projected power into Central Asia, and tattered plans to keep Russia and even close military ally Pakistan in a "China sphere" of influence have brought a more realistic assessment of China's global position.

"The speed with which other nations - that China thought it half had in its back pocket - lined up with the US has been a little shocking to Beijing," says a European diplomat here, on customary condition of anonymity.

Sources say that Chinese leaders realize they must place political, economic, and military resources on two fronts: In the far west, where they face terrorism and Islamic radicalism on the Central Asian border; and in the far east, where they face Taiwan - unruly democrats on an island China regards as a renegade territory.

Meanwhile, this two-front challenge comes as China is making a difficult and largely uncharted move toward World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and standards. On Saturday in Qatar, the WTO will formally approve China's membership. Reformers here see entry as a long-term boon. But it will also require much domestic energy and reform in China and possibly unleash destabilization in areas as different as banking and agriculture.

"Even the Chinese don't know what will happen in WTO. It is a risk, and people here have their fingers crossed," says a seasoned European diplomat in a different embassy.

China has for several years been building a new Central Asian coalition. It has extended military and technical help to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, and last summer signed a friendship pact with Russia. Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Russian President Vladimir Putin at one point were co-leaders of an effort to block the Bush administration's proposed nuclear missile defense (NMD) plan.

Yet, since Sept. 11, Central Asian states have been eager to help Washington battle terrorism, and President Putin has moved Russia closer to NATO and has backed off much of his anti-NMD stance. The US overnight became a supporting partner of Pakistan, a state that China helped with its nuclear and missile programs.

Ironically, perhaps, the Chinese perception of great-power status has in some ways played off Washington in recent years.

When the Clinton administration decided to "engage" China in 1996, President Clinton seemed to do so at the expense of China rivals Japan and Taiwan. His controversial Shanghai speech, known here as "the Three No's" seemed to back away from US support of Taiwan. Beijing took this as confirmation of its own preeminence and rise, some experts say.

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