Lessons of past in stopping terrorism

In fact, he says, history hints that big, broad terrorist movements can buckle under the weight of their own ambition - which paved the way for governments to wipe them out.

"The bolder your claim - and the wider your constituency," says Mr. Pollard, "the more destined you are to fail." He points to the loosely affiliated Marxist-Leninist groups that operated during the 1960s, '70s, and '80s, including the Japanese Red Army, Germany's Red Army Faction, and Peru's Shining Path. "They never came close to sparking a communist revolution anywhere," he says.

By contrast, groups with specific goals and smaller constituencies tend to have more success, Pollard notes. The PLO for instance, has partially achieved its goal of a Palestinian state - although its successes have come through a combination of political negotiation and violence. Some observers also see the IRA as having achieved some aims through violence.

Yet the US can also take cues from how the British have handled IRA terrorism, Juergensmeyer says - especially as it contrasts with how the current Israeli government has responded to Palestinian terror.

"The British went to pains not to always respond in kind," he says. "They treated former terrorists as human beings who could be negotiated with."

In Washington last week, British Foreign Minister Jack Straw said negotiation is "infinitely better" than military action. But he also said that while the goal of negotiation is to get "the other side to change its approach," getting to that point required "a firm police and military response."

In contrast, Juergensmeyer says Israel has responded to terrorist acts with such "dehumanizing" measures affecting all Palestinians that ending terrorism there only seems further off.

While it may be unrealistic to think Al Qaeda will back down, experts say part of ending its acts is separating Al Qaeda from any more moderate support bases it has come to rely on.

The US is already trying to split off the Taliban's more moderate elements. Putting out feelers for any disgruntled factions of the Taliban, Secretary of State Colin Powell has said that a future Afghan regime might include moderates from the Taliban.

Experts also point to Spain's approach to Basque separatists. The Spanish have culled out more moderate forces as elements the government could work with on sensitive issues such as autonomy, governance, and culture.

All in all, many observers are not pessimistic - just realistic - about ending Al Qaeda's terrorism. "It took the Italians years to deal with the Red Brigades, and that was a domestic problem," says Crenshaw. "Here we're talking about working with many and very diverse countries."

Seeing the terrorism of Sept. 11 in a historical context is also part of defeating it, experts say. Groups like the Red Brigades were destroyed not only by force but also by the government responding to the issues that spawned the organizations - everything from economic inequality to political exclusion. The same can happen with "new" terrorists like Al Qaeda.

Before this kind of terrorism can be defeated, however, the world will have to understand better why frustrated groups - and not only in Islam - meld their religious fervor with violence to try to defeat the modern world.

For Juergensmeyer, part of the answer to ending this terrorism will be a "renewed appreciation" for the role of religion in that globalized world.

"It's important we see that this is not the clash of civilizations," he says. "This is a moment in the transition to a globalized world."

Page: 1 | 2 | 3