To his critics, Alexander Lukashenko is the "last dictator in Europe," who wants to keep Belarus a Soviet-style fiefdom.

The State Department has deemed as "credible" reports from former KGB and other security officers linking him to "death squads" that resulted in the disappearance of several opponents.

But here, on the impoverished state farm where he was boss in the late 1980s, Lukashenko is a beloved, if fearsome, father figure. This rural region east of Minsk is a bedrock of support for Lukashenko, who seeks reelection in a vote this Sunday being closely watched by international observers.

"We know him personally," says milkmaid Larisa Boronova, her muddy toes protruding from one shoe, "and what we hear about him [as president] is more than wonderful."

Strategically placed as the western anchor of Russia's modern sphere of influence - as a budding unity deal between Minsk and Moscow attests - Belarus can serve as either the limit of NATO's eastward expansion in Europe, or as a Russian gateway to the West. But the West has made clear that ending Belarus's current isolation will depend on respect for democracy.

During Lukashenko's seven-year tenure, opponents have been harassed; newspapers raided and hassled, or their print runs stolen. The KGB - which, unlike its Russian counterpart, hasn't changed its name here since Soviet days - bugs phones and confiscates computers.

On Tuesday, Lukashenko accused the opposition of serving "Western puppet masters," and declared that he would kick out the US ambassador and head of the European observer team after the election.

While campaigning last month, Lukashenko scoffed at his detractors: "What totalitarianism? What dictatorship? We have just ensured order."

Lukashenko supporters point out that pensions and salaries have been paid on time. Belarus has also escaped the mayhem and uncertainties that plagued Russia and other ex-Soviet states during the 1990s.

"Our president divides society like an ax that leaves no one indifferent," says Alexander Feduta, an independent analyst and former Lukashenko insider in Minsk.

"The older generation sees Lukashenko as a flashback to Soviet times, when everyone was equally poor, and no one rich," he says. "They chose him the way Robin Hood was chosen in Sherwood Forest, as a noble thief. They don't recognize that change has to come."

Though the president's support is more than 40 percent, it remains flat and may actually be 20 percent in "crystallized" support when the "fear factor" is measured in, says pollster Andrei Vardomatski, head of the Novak group, an independent polling organization. He forecast Lukashenko's 1994 election victory to within 1.5 percent, and has polled regularly every since.

Lukashenko hopes to win in one round with at least 50 percent in the election, which allows voters to cast a ballot for no candidate.

Vardomatski's figures show opposition candidate Vladimir Goncharik, a bland veteran trade unionist, jumping from almost zero to nearly 20 percent support in recent weeks.

The opposition - which has received heavy US and Western backing - is calling for street protests if they lose.

"We are waiting for victory, and if the results don't add up, there will be a cry of indignation that will lead to clashes. The opposition could provoke unrest, and seize victory in a coup d'état," warns Jaroslav Romanchuk, an opposition leader and deputy editor of the Belorusskaya Gazeta newspaper.

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