US grand plan proves hard sell

The Bush administration is promising a brave new world of relations with Russia: In the boldest attempt at redefining relations in nearly a decade, Washington is seeking a "new strategic framework" meant to leave cold-war thinking behind.

But as US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld met yesterday in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin to sell Washington's concept and lay the foundation for a broader relationship, it became clear that the Kremlin is far from signing on.

A chummy second meeting between Mr. Putin and President George Bush in Genoa, Italy, last month led to a surprise agreement to link talks on America's missile defense plans - which Moscow vehemently opposes - to Russia's wish to deeply cut nuclear warheads.

A key sticking point is the 1972 Antiballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, which Russia wants to preserve. Washington says the treaty is a "relic" it wants to scrap, before it is violated by robust US missile-shield testing.

Putin rejected administration hopes of a joint withdrawal, however, even before he met Rumsfeld: "You know our attitude toward the ABM treaty," Putin said. "For us, it's unconditionally linked with both the Start II and Start I [nuclear reduction] treaties."

"I am afraid I am not [convinced]," said Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, reaffirming the tough Russian view. Russia fears a US shield could undermine its own nuclear deterrence. "The existing, multilayered system of strategic security which exists in the world today fully meets Russian needs," Ivanov said. "We still think the ABM treaty is one of the major important elements of the complex of international treaties."

But Rumsfeld told Russian journalists earlier in the day that the ABM treaty, which bans national missile defenses, has "outlived its usefulness." "I am a simple soul," he said. "I think life is a lot simpler if we pick up and go on."

Despite the flurry of US-Russian diplomatic activity in the warm afterglow of the Genoa meeting - and the setting aside of hostile Bush administration rhetoric that strained ties with Russia earlier this year - the United States is facing a tough sell.

"There has to be a collision at some time," says Marshall Goldman, associate director of Harvard University's Davis Center for Russian Studies. "It is hard to see how they can look at each other's eyes, and pat each other's souls, and say 'OK, we can each go our different directions.' "

Both sides want to reduce warheads, Mr. Goldman says, "but I don't see [the Russians] letting missile testing go on in Alaska without making some noises.... I don't think they can be bought."

The carrots Washington is offering include plans to boost American investment in Russia, high-tech sales, and even a sharing of some missile-defense technology, officials say - if Moscow moves to stop its weapons proliferation to North Korea and Iran. One aim is to bring Russia closer to the Western democracies.

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