Where the economy is heading

KEY INDICATORS Real growth, GNP 4th Qtr. 81 3rd Qtr. 81 Past year Percent, annual rate 5.2 1.4 1.6 Index of leading indicators Latest Month ago Year ago Seasonally adjusted 129.4 127.8 136.5 'Discomfort' index Inflational unemployment 12.1 14.2 16.5 Dow-Jones 30 industrials 824.39 870.34 938.91 New York Stock Exh. Composite index 65.33 70.94 64.95 Unemployment Percent 8.6 8.9 7.4 Civilian employment Millions, seasonally adj. 99.6 97.2 97.7 Auto production Units 279,825 349,702 455,479 Average weekly wages In 1977 dollars 164.05 $167.21 $171.12 Housing starts Millions of units 0.894 0.978 1.66 Productivity 4th Qt 81 3rd Qtr 81 Last year % change, annual rate -7.2 -1.0 1.0 Savings rate 4th Qtr 81 3rd Qtr 81 Last year Percent of salary 6.0 5.2 5.3 Net farm income 4th Qtr 81 3rd Qtr 81 4th Qtr 80 Billions, 1967 dollars 8.5 8.9 7.6 Corporate profits 4th Qtr 81 3rd Qtr 81 4th Qtr 80 Billions, after taxes $137.2 $156.3 $164.3 New plant & equipment 4th Qtr 81 3rd Qtr 81 4th Qtr 80 Invest., non-farm, bills. $332.1 $328.3 $299.6 US crude oil inventories Latest Month ago Year ago 335 Million/barrels avg. 385 375 376 US crude oil production Millions/barrels/day 8.6 8.7 8.5 US oil imports Millions/barrels/day 3.5 3.3 4.6

PRICES Consumer price index LatestDec. 12-month % change, annual rate 3.6 4.8 8.4 Gasoline Latest Month ago Year ago Per gallon, unleaded $1.358 $1.365 $1.298 Home heating oil Per gallon $1.254 $1.247 $1.15 Wheat Per bushel $4.255 $4.245 $4.445 Gold Latest Month ago Year ago London close, oz. $362.60 $377.25 $492.00 Silver New York close, oz. $7.795 $7.89 $12.28 Existing homes Latest Prev. month Year ago Median US sales price $66,800 $66,200 $63,000 Implicit price deflator 4th Qtr 81 3nd Qtr 81 4th Qtr 80 % change, annual rate 8.4 9.9 10.7

INTEREST RATES Prime rate This week Month ago Year ago Percent 16.50 15.75 20.00 AAA corporate bonds Percent yield 14.84 15.30 13.45 Treasury-bill rates 91-day, percent yield 12.430 12.505 14.103 Home Mortgages Latest Month ago Year ago 25% down, 25 years Avg. 'quoted' rate 17.33 17.02 13.07 Avg. contract rate 16.81 15.41 12.76 New car loans Avg. %, 5 Boston banks 19.40 19.20 16.60 Money market fund 7-day 30-day 12-month Percent, avg. yield 13.26 12.66 16.29

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Sources for table

Tables and graphs above are based on data from the American Petroleum Institute, Board of Trade of Kansas City, Comex Inc., Donoghue's Money Fund Report of Holliston, Ma 01746, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Federal Reserve Board, Massachusetts Commissioner of Banks, Moody's Investor Service, Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, National Association of Realtors, New York Stock Exchange, US Census Bureau, US Commerce Department Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Labor Department Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Treasury.

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