New York — The large 1982 federal budget deficit and a grim budget outlook for the next several years could severely strain President Reagan's economic recovery program , according to the Conference Board's latest budget analysis.
The analysis projects a record budget deficit of $95 billion in fiscal 1982 (lower than the latest administration figures), with outlays of $730 billion to deficits, high interest rates, and recession are setting the stage for future conflict, the analysis says.
''The head-on collision of persistent monetary restraint with the recession, '' continues the analysis, ''and of the outsized supply-side tax cuts with uncontrollable deficits, is beginning to erode some vital support for the Reagan program. Before long, the divisive effects of high and rising unemployent rates and of the approaching 1982 elections will further strain the President's fragile majority coalition in Congress.''
The principal author of the report, Michael E. Levy, finds that while the essential ingredients of the administration's economic program are still in place, the toughest tests are ahead - even if the widely predicted economic recovery occurs in mid-1982. Dr. Levy points out: ''With the prevailing policy mix, if recovery triggers the long-awaited investment boom (spurred by the large supply-side tax cuts), private-sector financing needs will clash with huge federal budget deficits and persistent monetary restraint.''