Five reasons why Syria may be at a tipping point

Since the start of the conflict in Syria, international observers have been watching the government of President Bashar al-Assad for signs that the once-feared regime might be vulnerable to overthrow.  Despite Syrian efforts to crush the rebels and to stifle news out of the country, this past week has shown the strongest evidence yet that the end of the Assad regime may be near.  Here are five signs that the Syrian conflict may finally be tipping in favor of the rebels.

Syrian soldiers are celebrating after their entry al-Midan neighbourhood in Damascus, on July 20, in this photo taken on a guided government tour.

1. Assassination bombing

Syrian soldiers are celebrating after their entry al-Midan neighbourhood in Damascus, on July 20, in this photo taken on a guided government tour.

The biggest sign, which Foreign Policy’s Mitch Prothero calls “the equivalent of blowing up the Death Star,” is clearly the July 18 assassination bombing in Damascus that killed several key members of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, including Defense Minister Daoud Rajha, Deputy Defense Minister Assef Shawkat, and Assistant Vice President Hassan Turkmani.  The attack prompted “unrestrained glee” among Syria’s rebels, as it showed they had a much longer reach – into the heart of the Assad regime – than international observers had guessed.
The most significant death, writes the Monitor’s Nick Blanford, is probably Mr. Shawkat’s. While Mr. Rajha, a Christian, headed the defense ministry, Shawkat was Assad’s brother-in-law, a member of the Alawite sect that controls Syria, and a key enforcer for the regime.  His death “suggests that no one in the regime is immune from the potential reach of the armed opposition, a grim fact that must send a shudder up the collective spine of the Syrian leadership.”

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