Four more years? Ecuador's Correa announces run for reelection

President Correa is famous abroad for protecting WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. But for Ecuadorean voters, Correa's personality may be decisive, writes a guest blogger.

Martin Jaramillo/AP
Ecuador's President Rafael Correa waves from his bicycle as he rides to the National Election Council headquarters to register his candidacy for reelection in next year's presidential election in Quito, Ecuador, Monday, Nov. 12.

• A version of this post ran on the author's blog, The views expressed are the author's own.

Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa announced he is running for reelection. His approval is above 50 percent in nearly every poll. He will face a large group of opposition candidates, none of whom have particularly strong support among voters.
 There are three issues that matter in this election:
 1) The Economy: Ecuador's economy is not great, but recent growth has been good enough to get President Correa reelected.
 2) Citizen Security: The perception of security on the streets of Ecuador's major cities has gotten worse in recent years due to organized crime and youth gangs. The country is far from a security crisis as is experienced in Central America and Venezuela, but security is a top issue on voters' minds.

RELATED: Think you know Latin America? Take our geography quiz!
 3) Personality: Correa retains support because his style remains well liked by many voters. The opposition candidates vary from charismatic but relatively unknown to completely despised by a majority of voters. The candidate who challenges Correa needs to have a likeable personality and some political charm to counter the president's advantage on this issue.
 At the moment, Correa has an advantage on the economy and personality [fronts[. The security problems aren't bad enough to push voters away and no opposition candidate is yet making a credible claim to do better. For Correa to lose this election, something about one or more of those three points must change significantly (an economic crash, a security crisis, or a major change in the perception of the president's and/or opposition candidates' personal likeability). If those three points in February look like they do today, Correa is nearly certain to win.
 I already see international journalists focusing on lots of things that don't matter to voters. Ecuador's voters aren't going to vote for or against the president's reelection based on Correa's media restrictions and war against the media barons, his abuse of the court system, his oil policies, his support for Assange, corruption, the country's debt to China or its alliance with Venezuela. Those other topics may matter to the international audience and are more entertaining to discuss than the basic fundamentals (economy, security, personality), but they aren't moving votes.

– James Bosworth is a freelance writer and consultant who runs Bloggings by Boz.

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.
Real news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.
What is the Monitor difference? Tackling the tough headlines – with humanity. Listening to sources – with respect. Seeing the story that others are missing by reporting what so often gets overlooked: the values that connect us. That’s Monitor reporting – news that changes how you see the world.

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to

QR Code to Four more years? Ecuador's Correa announces run for reelection
Read this article in
QR Code to Subscription page
Start your subscription today