House speaker ordeal: How will it play in swing districts?
| Virginia Beach, Va.
With Wednesday’s election of Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson as House speaker, Republicans on Capitol Hill were eager to put the three-week drama behind them.
Among voters, however, that might be easier said than done.
Why We Wrote This
After three weeks and four nominees, U.S. House Republicans finally elected a speaker on Wednesday. Voters in swing districts like one in Virginia were chagrined by the ordeal. But will that matter come election time?
In interviews with almost two dozen Republicans and Democrats in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, many acknowledge they’ll likely be focused on other issues come Election Day 2024. And some Republicans here see the replacement of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy with someone more conservative as a good thing, despite the painful process.
But there’s also no doubt that the 22-day ordeal left a bad impression – and much will depend on where the House GOP goes from here. If the infighting continues or leads to a government shutdown next month, Republicans’ narrow majority could be in jeopardy.
Steve, a retired CEO who lives in downtown Virginia Beach and declined to give his last name, voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and then GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans in 2022. He found the whole speaker fight “disappointing,” though he thinks Ms. Kiggans handled it well, “doing the best she can,” he says. Still, he hopes the larger GOP will face a reckoning for all the chaos it caused.
“I hope there are repercussions for all the Republicans in Congress because they are all a part of this mess,” he says.
When it comes to politics, childhood friends Angie Russell and Robin Callahan don’t agree on much.
Ms. Callahan, a retired teacher who lives in Virginia Beach, voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 because she couldn’t bring herself to vote for former President Donald Trump. Ms. Russell, also retired and living in Lynchburg, says she was “Trump all the way.” Both plan to vote the same way next year, when the two men are expected to face off in a rematch.
But when it comes to the prolonged speakership fight that paralyzed Capitol Hill for almost all of October, the two friends walking along Virginia Beach’s boardwalk are equally dismayed.
Why We Wrote This
After three weeks and four nominees, U.S. House Republicans finally elected a speaker on Wednesday. Voters in swing districts like one in Virginia were chagrined by the ordeal. But will that matter come election time?
“It makes us wonder: How can you solve any of the problems going on in our country or the world?” says Ms. Callahan.
“We look weak, and our enemies see that,” says Ms. Russell.
Wednesday’s election of Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson as House speaker put an end to the unprecedented drama, allowing Congress’ lower chamber to finally open for business. After three weeks of infighting, Republicans on Capitol Hill were eager to put the whole episode behind them.
“The American people, at one time, had great pride in this institution. But right now, that’s in jeopardy,” Mr. Johnson said in a speech on the House floor. “We have a challenge before us right now to rebuild and restore that trust.”
That might be easier said than done.
In interviews with almost two dozen Republican and Democratic voters in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, many acknowledge that memories are short, and they will likely be focused on other issues come Election Day 2024. And some Republicans here see the ousting of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the election of a more conservative replacement as a positive outcome, despite the painful process.
But there’s also no doubt that the ordeal left a bad impression – and, in the short term at least, may make voters less likely to give Republicans the benefit of the doubt. In this swing district that voted for President Biden in 2020 and then in 2022 replaced a Democratic representative with GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans, voters agree much will depend on where the House GOP goes from here. If the infighting continues or leads to a government shutdown next month, when the current funding is set to run out, Republicans’ narrow majority could be in jeopardy.
A useful analogy, says Republican pollster Whit Ayres, may be the government shutdown of 2013 led by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. The 16-day shutdown at the hands of Republicans in October of that year caused the party’s favorability ratings to drop by 10 points. But they had a year to recover, and in November 2014, Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives and gained seats in the Senate.
“It’s hard to imagine that this chaos at the moment is going to have a substantial effect on the midterms. The Trump trials may have more of an effect,” says Mr. Ayres. “It all depends on what happens between now and then, and what kind of job Speaker Johnson does. Can he keep the government open, get aid to Ukraine and Israel, and secure the border? It all depends on how he defines his role. His constituents are now the entire country and not a deep red district in the deep South.”
Vulnerable crossover districts?
More conservative than Mr. McCarthy, Mr. Johnson is already being attacked by Democrats for his role in Mr. Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion. If he leads his conference further to the right, it could make things more difficult for the dwindling number of moderate Republicans – particularly the 18 who represent “crossover” districts, or districts that Mr. Biden won.
When GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents a swing district in New York, voted for Mr. Johnson on the House floor Wednesday, a voice from the Democratic side of the aisle said, “Bye-bye.”
Before Mr. Johnson was elected, Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, a hard-line conservative who is a popular figure among the GOP base, lost three successive speaker votes on the House floor in part because 11 holdout Republicans from crossover districts refused to support him. Several of those members – including Ms. Kiggans from Virginia’s 2nd District – received threats over their stance.
“I was a helicopter pilot in the United States Navy. ... Threats and intimidation tactics will not change my principles and values,” Ms. Kiggans posted on X, formerly Twitter.
Explaining her vote against Mr. Jordan in another X post, Ms. Kiggans said she couldn’t support someone who would cut the defense budget or shut down the government as a negotiating tactic, given the district she represents.
With the largest concentration of military personnel outside the Pentagon, Virginia’s 2nd District feels the impact of actions in Congress more immediately than most. If the federal government shuts down, it affects Virginia Beach’s almost 97,000 active-duty military members and their families. And Congress’ response to the current wars in Europe and the Middle East are also salient, say residents. One of the aircraft carrier strike groups stationed in the eastern Mediterranean amid the Israel-Hamas war – the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower – came from the Virginia Beach coastline.
Still, some of Ms. Kiggans’ constituents were unhappy about her votes against Mr. Jordan, which they viewed as a slight to the conservative movement.
“I wish Matt Gaetz had had more of a plan for who should replace McCarthy, but it’s a shame about Jim Jordan because he would have been such a good speaker,” says Bob Totty from Chesapeake, who recently retired from health care sales. “I know thousands of people were calling into her office supporting him.”
His wife, Deb Totty, was also disappointed with her congresswoman’s votes.
“She turned out to be the same as the rest of them in Washington,” says Ms. Totty, a retired special events coordinator.
When asked about the blowback that Ms. Kiggans might be getting at home over everything that went on in Washington this month, former 2nd District Rep. Scott Taylor just laughs.
“I know for a fact that Kiggans is getting grief because I know the district well,” says Mr. Taylor, a Republican who held the seat between 2017 and 2019. “It’s not easy for her,” he adds. “She’s a freshman congresswoman.”
Still, Ms. Kiggans may have complicated her message somewhat by voting first for Mr. McCarthy, then for acting Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry, and finally for Mr. Johnson. “She didn’t do herself any favors by being wishy-washy,” Mr. Taylor says. “I guess the whole process was wishy-washy.”
The case of Virginia Rep. Kiggans
Mr. Taylor, who was elected to Congress the same year as Mr. Johnson, says he has already texted his friend congratulations.
“Mike is a good choice. He’s a sensible guy. He’s more conservative than McCarthy, but if you don’t agree with him, he’s never disrespectful,” says Mr. Taylor. If Mr. Johnson is able to avoid a government shutdown and demonstrate a steady hand, he predicts “it won’t affect Kiggans or others next year.”
Even if there is a government shutdown, the bigger threat to Ms. Kiggans might be a primary challenge to her right. The district was reconfigured to be more Republican during the 2020 redistricting – creating a threat that “absolutely” increased in the wake of the speakership fight, says Mr. Taylor.
At the same time, Ms. Kiggans might gain some votes on the other side of the aisle. Some Democratic and independent constituents here say they were pleased with her votes against Mr. Jordan.
Steve, a retired CEO who lives in downtown Virginia Beach and declined to give his last name, voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 and then Ms. Kiggans in 2022. Despite finding the whole speaker fight “disappointing,” he says he thinks Ms. Kiggans handled it well, “doing the best she can.” He also hopes the GOP will face a reckoning for all the chaos it caused.
“I hope there are repercussions for all the Republicans in Congress because they are all a part of this mess,” he says. “The Republican Party is no longer the party that I know.”
Whether swing voters like Steve will carry this sentiment over into Virginia’s state legislature elections next month remains to be seen.
At the Virginia Beach GOP headquarters, Carol Hickman and two other volunteers assemble yard signs for a Republican state senate candidate, while in the background a TV plays Mr. Johnson’s acceptance speech. Ms. Hickman says she was “dismayed” that the House was effectively immobilized for three weeks. In the end, however, she says she would rather have Republicans take the time to choose the right person for the job.
Hopefully Republicans learned the “difficult lesson” that if you vote someone out of a position, you should have a backup plan in place, says Ms. Hickman. Now, it’s about looking forward.
“Every single Republican should take this to heart: You have a job to do.”
