With midterms looming, Democrats play defense on crime
| Bristol, Pa.
Crime is not the uppermost concern for voters right now, most of whom list the economy and inflation as the most important issues facing the country.
But with just weeks to go until Election Day, Republicans across the country are making violent crime – and the charge that Democrats are unable or unwilling to curb it – a central focus. And recent shifts in the polls in several key races suggest the attacks may be moving the needle.
Why We Wrote This
Republicans running on crime is nothing new. But as many Democratic-run cities struggle with elevated levels of violence and disorder, the GOP message may be resonating.
Many large Democratic-controlled cities in swing states have struggled with higher levels of crime and homelessness since the pandemic, and Democratic candidates are being forced to distance themselves from previously held positions on things like bail reform or the controversial push to “defund the police.”
In Pennsylvania, where the number of Philadelphia homicides is already close to surpassing last year’s record high, Mehmet Oz has spent millions on ads calling his Democratic opponent John Fetterman “soft on crime.” The Republican’s campaign has particularly focused on Mr. Fetterman’s role securing releases for some convicted murderers.
Mr. Fetterman addressed the attacks directly at a recent rally in critical Bucks County. “[Dr. Oz is] lying about my record on crime. I’m running on my record on crime,” he said.
Heading into Senate candidate John Fetterman’s rally on a recent Sunday, Democratic voter Kate Sommerer waves dismissively at the protesters across the street. The group, some wearing orange prison jumpsuits, are waving posters that read: “Violent Criminals 4 Fetterman” and “Felons 4 Fetterman.”
“It’s because they don’t have anything else to go on,” says Ms. Sommerer, rolling her eyes. “I think [the race] is going to be tighter than what we initially thought,” she adds. “But I still think John’s going to pull it off.”
In the final stretch before Election Day, the race for Pennsylvania’s open Senate seat has tightened considerably, with the independent Cook Political Report recently moving it back to “tossup” status. Mr. Fetterman, the hoodie-wearing lieutenant governor who previously held a double-digit lead in the polls, was forced to limit his public schedule throughout the summer while recovering from a stroke. And lately, he has been thrown on the defensive over one issue in particular: crime.
Why We Wrote This
Republicans running on crime is nothing new. But as many Democratic-run cities struggle with elevated levels of violence and disorder, the GOP message may be resonating.
It’s not just Pennsylvania. In contests across the country, Republicans are making violent crime – and charges that Democrats are unable or unwilling to curb it – a central focus of their campaigns.
In many ways, it’s an age-old political play – one that Democrats say often has racist undertones. Richard Nixon famously promised to restore “law and order” after the civil rights clashes of the 1960s. Two decades later, George H.W. Bush released his controversial Willie Horton ad about a Black inmate who committed a rape after being granted a weekend furlough by Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. More recently, Donald Trump made urban crime a central focus of both his campaigns, frequently highlighting violent offenses by unauthorized immigrants among others.
Crime is not the uppermost concern for most voters right now. In the New York Times/Siena poll released this week, voters from both parties overwhelmingly listed the economy and inflation as the most important issues facing the country, while the percentage choosing crime as the top issue was in the low single digits.
Still, recent shifts in the polls in several key races suggest the GOP’s attacks could be helping to move the needle. Many large Democratic-controlled cities in swing states have struggled with higher levels of crime and homelessness – as well as a general sense of disorder – since the pandemic. And several Democratic candidates are being forced to explain or distance themselves from previously held positions on things like bail reform or the controversial push to “defund the police.”
In Pennsylvania, where the number of Philadelphia homicides is already close to surpassing last year’s record high, Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz has spent millions on ads calling Mr. Fetterman “soft on crime.” The Oz campaign has particularly focused on Mr. Fetterman’s role on the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons, where he secured releases for many nonviolent offenders but also for some convicted murderers.
“Lieutenant Governor Fetterman has some outlandish views on crime and punishment, and he has not been shy about talking about them for many years. The ads you see running against him on crime are just clips of audio he’s said himself,” says Chris Nicholas, a GOP political consultant and former campaign manager for the late Sen. Arlen Specter. “Add that to the fact that violent crime in Pennsylvania is on the rise. ... You have the perfect storm for Republicans in this Senate race.”
A pattern from Wisconsin to Oregon
A similar dynamic is unfolding in the Wisconsin Senate race, where Democrat Mandela Barnes – also his state’s lieutenant governor – is now trailing incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, after holding slim leads in polls over the summer. As the homicide rate in Milwaukee continues to tick up, Republicans have been emphasizing Mr. Barnes’ past support for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, “defunding the police,” and eliminating cash bail.
Mr. Barnes has had to play defense. “I’ll make sure our police have the resources and training they need to keep our communities safe,” Mr. Barnes says to the camera while unpacking groceries in an ad titled “Truth.”
Even in deep-blue Oregon, polls show the Republican candidate for governor currently is leading amid a campaign focused largely on crime. Portland was the site of prolonged clashes between antifa, the radical left-wing groups, and law enforcement beginning in the summer of 2020. The city’s violent crime rate rose 38% last year, and homelessness and drug overdoses are up sharply.
In Pennsylvania, “Big John” Fetterman cuts a unique figure among Senate hopefuls with his Carhartt sweatshirts, goatee, and tattoos. The former mayor of Braddock, a small, mostly Black city outside Pittsburgh, he blends progressive positions on issues such as marijuana legalization and LGBTQ equality with more pragmatic stances on guns and hydraulic fracturing. Supporters hail him as a rare Democratic candidate with an Everyman persona who can appeal to both urban and suburban elites as well as working-class union members.
“He’s a good person. He was the mayor of a small town and seven people got murdered and he has them all tattooed up his arm. He’s passionate,” says Fetterman supporter Lisa Nastasiak. Mr. Fetterman’s right arm is in fact tattooed with nine dates memorializing residents lost to violence during his tenure as mayor. He frequently cites the fact that Braddock went for more than five years without a homicide due to gun violence while he was mayor.
But Mr. Fetterman’s past comments in favor of decriminalizing all drugs, support for sanctuary cities, and particularly his efforts to release convicted offenders from prison, have made him vulnerable to Republican attacks. In a review of three primetime Fox News programs during the month of September, Media Matters for America found Mr. Fetterman’s name was mentioned at least 120 times – more than triple the mentions of Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, the second-most mentioned Democratic candidate.
Mr. Fetterman addressed the attacks in a 10-minute rally appearance, in front of roughly 1,000 voters in a park above the Delaware River in politically crucial Bucks County.
“We’re still standing,” he said, in his slower, post-stroke cadence. “We’re more than standing, we’re winning.” Mr. Fetterman raised $22 million in the third quarter, a new Pennsylvania record according to the campaign. And he is still leading Dr. Oz in the polls, albeit by much smaller margins.
Perhaps more important, in a late September Fox News poll, 65% of Democrats said they supported Mr. Fetterman “enthusiastically.” Just 38% of Republicans said the same about Dr. Oz, a Turkish American surgeon who rose to fame as a regular guest on “The Oprah Winfrey Show” in the early 2000s. A longtime New Jersey resident, Dr. Oz also starred in his own daily talk show, during which he gave health advice that’s since been criticized by many in the medical community.
The Oz campaign did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
The suburban vote and abortion
As in most elections, the outcome in many close statewide races this year may hinge on the suburbs. While the violent crime in Philadelphia may not directly affect Bucks County’s small, suburban towns, that doesn’t mean the issue isn’t a potent one, says Bucks County Republican Committee Chair Pat Poprik.
“We’re law enforcement people here,” says Ms. Poprik. “The people of Bucks County feel it when they go into the city, and they don’t want it here.”
There’s some evidence Philadelphia’s rising crime rates have begun to concern not just Republicans but Democrats. In mid-September, both parties in the state legislature voted to hold Larry Krasner, Philadelphia’s progressive district attorney, in contempt for failing to comply with a subpoena from a newly formed Select Committee on Restoring Law and Order. Republican lawmakers have been trying to impeach Mr. Krasner – who filed his own contempt motions against the Philadelphia Police Department last year – accusing him of failing to enforce the law.
Earlier in the summer, following the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade and the right to an abortion, Democrats had begun to feel cautiously optimistic. Despite history showing the president’s party almost always loses seats in the first set of midterm elections, the sudden focus on abortion – which a majority of Americans believe should be legal – seemed to be energizing women voters, as state after state banned the procedure.
Still, some strategists warned against relying too heavily on it. “It’s a good issue,” Democratic strategist James Carville told The Associated Press. “But if you just sit there and they’re pummeling you on crime and pummeling you on the cost of living, you’ve got to be more aggressive than just yelling abortion every other word.”
At the Fetterman rally, the candidate’s wife, Gisele, reminds the crowd that her husband “understands that our basic rights, including abortion rights, are on the line.” Other Democratic candidates for statehouse races also mention abortion. Even Mr. Fetterman’s response to Dr. Oz’s crime attacks flows into an inevitable segue.
“Let me ask you: What has Dr. Oz ever known about crime, or fighting crime, living in a mansion in New Jersey? Oz might be a joke – but it’s really not funny because abortion rights are on the ballot right now,” says Mr. Fetterman to the cheering crowd.
“[Dr. Oz] spent his career lying about magic pills, and now he’s spending his entire campaign lying about my record on crime,” he says. “I’m running on my record on crime.”
