Mitt Romney: Could a victory mean a stock market surge?

Mitt Romney victory in November could be a potential source of optimism for Wall Street, some analysts suggest. But can Mitt Romney or any other potential president elect truly have a lasting effect on the stock market?

  • close
    Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his wife Ann board their charter plane in Tel Aviv, Israel as they travel to Poland, Monday, July 30, 2012.
    Charles Dharapak/AP
    View Caption
  • About video ads
    View Caption

Sam Ro just published some recent commentary from Morgan Stanley's bearish chief strategist Adam Parker.  Parker says that one thing that could change the tone of this market for the better would be a perceived or actual victory of Mitt Romney:

The biggest possibility here would be Romney winning the Presidential election. Our guess is that the market multiple would expand if in fact more investors start believing Romney will win. Secondly, we think an improving outlook in China could create a bid for cyclicals in the US, given how much they have sold off. Interestingly, the microstructure of the market rally this past week was not full-on beta, with health care (our largest overweight) the best performing sector in Friday’s large uptrend. Investors are worried, they are just not worried now. We think the time for more worry is near. Perhaps the champagne should be for mood enhancement, not for celebration.

I agree with him.  The research shows that there is no stock market benefit in real life as to which party controls the White House.  But in this case, the business community is sick and tired of being sick and tired, they'd welcome the change with a great deal of pent-up optimism about the future.  Mitt is running as a fiscal conservative (because he has to) but in general, most of us know that he will keep taxes low and maybe even seek to cut them further to stimulate the economy.  The odds of a healthcare roll-back are slim but the potential would certainly stoke the fires as well.

The Christian Science Monitor has assembled a diverse group of the best economy-related bloggers out there. Our guest bloggers are not employed or directed by the Monitor and the views expressed are the bloggers' own, as is responsibility for the content of their blogs. To contact us about a blogger, click here.To add or view a comment on a guest blog, please go to the blogger's own site by clicking on


We want to hear, did we miss an angle we should have covered? Should we come back to this topic? Or just give us a rating for this story. We want to hear from you.