Poll numbers has House Dems up against the ropes

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks at her weekly press conference inside the US Capitol, on July 30.

How bad is it going to be for House Democrats in 2010 elections? Depends on where you're standing.

Democrats have some cause for hope: the housing market is improving, consumers are growing more confident, and the economy shrunk at a slower-than-expected pace during the second quarter of 2009, the Associated Press reports. And if the White House healthcare proposal makes it through Congress, it could bolster faith in the majority party.

But a new Presidential Tracking Poll from Rasmussen Reports shows that only 29 percent of eligible voters are confident that Congress knows what it’s doing when it comes to the economy. Given the choice to keep or replace the entire Congress, 57 percent said they would throw out all the legislators and start over again. Worse yet: A meager 25 percent would vote to keep the Congress.

According to Politico, the situation is dire enough that many experts are predicting double-digit losses for the Democrats in the house – a plunge that would be akin to the drubbing that the left took in 1994. The "situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats," political analyst Charlie Cook wrote recently, adding:

Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats.

As David Sessions notes on Politics Daily, " The party in power almost always loses seats in the midterm elections – sometimes as many as 10 to 12." In other words, it's all politics as usual. Still, a 20-seat loss would likely set back many Democratic initiatives – including the push for healthcare reform.


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