Teacher layoffs ahead: Should seniority prevail? Six considerations.

Thousands of teachers are being notified this spring that their jobs are in jeopardy – and many of those layoffs may actually occur, given the severe budget crises affecting state and local governments.

6. Which side has the momentum?

Chris O'Meara/AP
Florida state Sen. Stephen Wise (R), left, shakes hands with fellow state Sen. John Thrasher (R) after the Florida Senate voted in Tallahassee, Fla., on a bill about teacher evaulations.

Some states are using the budget crisis and antiunion sentiment to move away from seniority rules. In recent months, Florida, Idaho, Utah, and Ohio have done away with LIFO, Georgia is on the verge of doing so, and a dozen or so other states have either introduced such legislation or are considering it.

"Prior to [StudentsFirst] getting started [in December], only three states across the country had what we considered the best LIFO language," says Ms. Rhee. "I think we'll see that number jump almost fourfold by the end of this legislative season."

Polling tends to show support for doing away with seniority-based layoffs. A recent StudentsFirst poll showed 74 percent of voters in favor of changing LIFO rules, and 43 percent of teachers wanting to change it. And a poll of teachers that The New Teacher Project conducted in two urban districts a year ago found 3 of 4 teachers believed factors other than seniority should be considered in layoff decisions.

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