New residential construction falls in September

Single family permits declined 0.2 percent: 76.81 percent below the September 2005 peak.

This chart shows the number (in thousands) of single family construction permits issued annually over the past decade. Numbers are nearly 77 percent below the 2005 peak.

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed that in September, single family permits declined while single family starts increased from August with both measures continuing to show tepid results when compared on a year-over-year basis.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, declined 0.2% from last month to 417K single family units (SAAR), increasing 3.47% above the level seen in September 2010 but remaining an astonishing 76.81% below the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts increased 1.7% to 425K units (SAAR), but dropped 4.92% below the level seen in September 2010 and a stunning 76.69% below the peak set in early 2006.

With the substantial headwinds of elevated unemployment, epic levels of foreclosure and delinquency, mounting bankruptcies, contracting consumer credit, and falling real wages, an overhang of inventory and still falling home prices, the environment for “organic” home sales remains weak and likely very fragile.

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