An '83 risk forecast for business abroad

The risks for conducting international business in six countries - Australia, Chile, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, and Zimbabwe - will be greater next year than this, two professors at Syracuse University say. In six other countries, however - Belgium, Canada, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Italy, and Spain - the risks next year will be less.

The analysis provided forecasts in five areas of risk in 72 countries: to survival of the current regime; political turmoil affecting international business; to financial institutions; to manufacturing and extractive multinationals; and to exporters.

The best climates for over the next five years will be in Austria, the U.S. Ireland, Finland, Denmark, West Germany, the U.K., Singapore, the Netherlands, and Japan. The highest-risk countries will be Argentina, Bolivia, El Salvador, Iraq, Israel, Nicaragua, Pakistan, South Africa, and Zambia.

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