The persistence of high interest rates will make 1982 another bad year for the savings and loan (S&L) industry. At least that's the opinion of Mark Alpert, an analyst at Bear Stearns & Co. Inc. Mr. Alpert, in a recent research report, noted losses in 1982 could be worse than 1981 because many companies will have fewer nonoperating contributions to their income statements. Additionally, with the decline in real housing prices, loan losses may increase.
In spite of the gloom and doom, Alpert sees a few bright spots. One is the possibility that later this year, if interest rates fall, interest-rate spreads will turn positive for some of the large California S&L's. Over the longer term whoever is left in the industry is going to benefit from deregulation. Future reforms, he notes, are likely to include commerical lending powers, trust services, and mutual-fund underwriting.