The Central Intelligence Agency is clinging to its forecast that Soviet crude oil output is overdue for a drop that could make Moscow a net oil importer by 1985, despite some signs of rising production. The conclusion emerges from a lengthy, confidential CIA draft report obtained this month by a consumer group through an official-disclosure request. "Growth has slowed dramatically in the last few years," the report said. "We believe that growth will end soon if it has not already, and that production cannot be stabilized. Production must fall."
But official -- and apparently undisputed -- Soviet production figures showed daily crude oil output of 12.15 million barrels a day in January, up from an averag e of 12.03 million in 1980.