Latest front in data integrity: Turkey
The president’s sacking of his statistics chief after a report of high inflation will run into the public’s demand for truthful economic data.
A vendor waits for customers at his stall in a street market in Istanbul, Turkey, Jan. 4.
Reuters
It’s not a term that immediately stirs political passions. Yet public demand for statistical integrity, or truth in data, drives much in the news these days. A year ago, the military in Myanmar declared an election count invalid and took power, triggering massive resistance. Protests in Brazil have been driven in part by government undercounting of COVID-19 deaths. Europe is still recovering from a financial crisis over the euro caused by Greece fudging its debt levels.
Even the World Bank got caught doctoring data to favor China about its investment climate. China itself faces internal criticism over the reliability of its data. In December, a former finance minister said the country’s official statistics do not correctly reflect economic changes.
Now it is Turkey’s turn. On Saturday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sacked the head of the national statistics bureau, Sait Erdal Dincer, after he released figures showing a 19-year high in inflation at 36%, one of the highest rates in the world. Mr. Dincer, who is the fourth chief of the Turkish Statistical Institute in the last five years, said he was simply following the procedures of Eurostat. The president said he was exaggerating the numbers.
Just a month earlier, Turkey’s political opposition staged a protest at the bureau, claiming it was underreporting the inflation rate. Mr. Erdoğan’s opponents are demanding transparency in all economic data and independence for the central bank and similar bodies. Turkey is facing a downward spiral in the value of its currency because the president has taken personal charge of economic policy. As a result, many Turks are facing financial hardship.
Any economy relies on the accuracy and transparency of its statistics. Governments that rely on heavy secrecy and bogus data for political purposes usually can expect a backlash when the public senses the effects in daily life. In global challenges, too, leaders must rely on statistical honesty, such as the need for each country to meet carbon-cutting targets in the struggle against climate change.
Clear and straightforward statistics help lift a society, highlighting both its weaknesses and successes. They are essential to set better policy, guide business, and assist citizens in civic responsibilities. “If we surrender to the feeling that we can no longer afford to know what is true, then we are depriving ourselves of a vital tool,” wrote journalist Tim Harford in a 2020 book on statistics, “How to Make the World Add Up.”
He suggests the antidote to cynicism about statistics is to “welcome information with curiosity and with constructive skepticism.” Faced with new data, he says, the public can learn to stop to think, put numbers in context, and ask questions. In Turkey, politics now turns not only on the integrity of statistics but also on the ability of its citizens to discern the truth in them.