Is Speaker Mike Johnson ‘full MAGA’? Not necessarily.

To many observers, Rep. Mike Johnson’s election as speaker of the House brings the Republican Party one step closer to a “full MAGA” takeover – that is, more fully aligned with former and possibly future President Donald Trump.

Speaker Johnson’s conservative record, centered in his deep Southern Baptist faith, puts him squarely within the party’s dominant wing. But it is the Louisianian’s staunch support of former President Trump, including organizing an amicus brief to the Supreme Court challenging the 2020 election results in four states, that really earned Mr. Johnson his “Make America Great Again” credentials.

Indeed, both Mr. Trump and GOP flamethrower Matt Gaetz, the Florida congressman who triggered the vote that ousted then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, instantly dubbed the new speaker “MAGA Mike.”

But the narrative around Mr. Johnson’s sudden rise from obscurity may not be so simple. Don’t discount the sheer exhaustion that had set in after three other candidates for speaker went down in flames, political analysts say. Mr. Johnson’s congenial manner and lack of enemies were also key to his success, with all Republicans present voting for him – including the 18 members from districts that had voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Perhaps most important, however, is that Mr. Johnson’s election reflects trends within the Republican Party that long predate the rise of Mr. Trump and the MAGA movement.

“[Mr. Johnson] represents the culmination of the revolt against the old Republican establishment that began with the tea party in 2009,” says William Galston, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution and former domestic policy adviser in the Clinton White House. 

The tea party movement, focused on lower taxes and smaller government, fueled big Republican gains in the House in the 2010 midterms. And, Mr. Galston says, it “signaled the fact that the grassroots of the Republican Party were not satisfied with what they were being offered by the Republican leadership.”

Mr. Trump tapped into that same rebellious, anti-establishment ethos on his way to the presidency. Recent Republican House speakers – before, during, and after Mr. Trump’s term – have all grappled with the party’s disparate factions, some calling it quits in exasperation or, as with the ideologically flexible Mr. McCarthy, losing the speakership at the hands of far-right colleagues.

New speaker mirrors GOP 

Which brings us back to Mr. Johnson.

“The Republican Party has been a conservative party and a rural party and a Christian-right party to some extent for quite some time,” says Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center. “Johnson’s elevation reflects that.”

Mr. Johnson’s MAGA credentials embody how the party has evolved to reflect its base, Mr. Olsen says. “But I don’t think this event” – Mr. Johnson’s election as speaker – “proves it’s Trump’s party.”

Doug Heye, former spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, gives no credit to Mr. Trump for Mr. Johnson’s election as House speaker.

“He endorsed him when it was clear he was gonna win,” Mr. Heye says. “Trump does that a lot.”

Mr. Trump also has a history of backing the wrong horse. Mr. Olsen notes past examples of Trump-endorsed candidates losing, whether in House or Senate primaries or in the just-concluded race for speaker. The former president had endorsed Rep. Jim Jordan, the firebrand Republican from Ohio – a bid that failed on three successive ballots, with GOP opposition rising on each subsequent vote, before he finally dropped out.

Still, even if Mr. Trump can’t dictate the House speakership or act as a puppet master – a skill set he may not possess – he still dominates the party like no one else. He is the overwhelming front-runner for the GOP nomination for president in 2024.

At the same time, the MAGA label has become a convenient shorthand for political players across the spectrum. Liberals want to tar Mr. Johnson as a Trumpist. And Mr. Trump and his allies want to own Mr. Johnson’s victory and make sure he doesn’t stray outside the MAGA fold in dealings with Republicans, House Democrats, and President Biden.

As speaker, Mr. Johnson operates under the same razor-thin margin of control as did Mr. McCarthy and the same “motion to vacate” rule that allows any single member to call for a vote to remove the speaker. On Monday, Ohio GOP Rep. Max Miller introduced a resolution calling for a change to that rule.

Mr. Johnson is already being tested – no honeymoon for this speaker – with limited congressional leadership experience. He’s just in his fourth two-year term, and the highest he rose in leadership before now was as the GOP conference vice chair, the seventh-ranking leader in the party.

Following the MAGA playbook 

So far, the new speaker seems to be playing it safe. He’s following the MAGA playbook, separating aid to Israel (which MAGA wants) from aid to Ukraine (which MAGA doesn’t want) in a $105 billion supplemental funding bill.

Mr. Johnson’s big test will come by Nov. 17, when congressional funding of the federal government runs out. If there’s a shutdown, and the public blames Republicans, that could harm the party’s chances of retaking the presidency in 2024.

Mid-November is also when the new speaker’s personal skills could become crucial. The Senate minority leader, Republican Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, hails from the party’s old establishment wing, and if he and Mr. Johnson can find a way to work together, that could go a long way toward helping the GOP set a reputation for effective governance.

Mr. Johnson’s skills at bipartisan negotiation could prove equally crucial. One day after his election as speaker, he attended a White House meeting with Mr. Biden on aid to both Israel and Ukraine. The new speaker’s decision to back separate legislation for funding of American allies in both wars, including spending offsets for funding of Israel’s battle against Hamas, demonstrates his challenge in maintaining his MAGA credentials.

But above all else, Mr. Johnson’s mild-mannered personality could be key if he is to succeed as House speaker.

“Temperament matters,” says Mr. Heye. The battle for speaker “was a long, drawn-out, stupid process, but ultimately, somebody emerged who was pretty representative of the House Republican conference.”