Senate map favors the GOP. But Steve Daines won’t predict a ‘red wave.’

Montana Sen. Steve Daines learned a big lesson from his predecessor as chair of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm: Don’t overpromise. Don’t utter the phrase “red wave.” 

Before the 2022 midterm elections, with the Senate tied 50-50, GOP Sen. Rick Scott of Florida confidently predicted his party would win control of the chamber – handily. 

“I think we can get 53, 54, 55,” Senator Scott told a roomful of Republicans in North Carolina less than a month before Election Day. “The energy is on our side. People are fed up with the Biden agenda.”

Not only did Democrats keep the Senate that November; they gained a seat, and still enjoy a 51-49 majority. 

On Thursday, at a Monitor Breakfast with reporters, Chair Daines was relentlessly on message. When asked for his prediction on how many Senate seats the Republicans will have come January, Mr. Daines was blunt: “Fifty-one.”

“Why 51?” a reporter followed up. 

“Because that gives us the majority,” said Mr. Daines, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).  

The Montanan was fully in sync with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who also tempered expectations in a Politico interview published Thursday morning by focusing on the number 51. That means control of the chamber, the Senate minority leader said, “no matter who’s elected president.” 

Never mind that Republicans have the most favorable Senate map in a decade, with one Democratic-held seat already certain to flip – that of retiring Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Seven more are ranked as either toss-ups or “lean Democrat,” according to the Cook Political Report. 

And that’s not including Maryland, where former Gov. Larry Hogan, a moderate Republican, rocked the solid-blue state’s politics in February by jumping into the race to fill a retiring Democratic senator’s seat. Mr. Hogan leads in the polls, but it’s early and the Democrats don’t yet have a nominee.  

Mr. Daines has also broken with his NRSC predecessor, Senator Scott, by actively recruiting candidates in the primaries who he believes can win in November, unlike in the last two cycles, when “candidate quality” (to quote Senator McConnell) was found wanting. The NRSC chair has effectively cleared the field in several key races, including in Pennsylvania, Montana, Nevada, and Arizona – and put Maryland in play by recruiting Mr. Hogan. And unlike Mr. McConnell, Mr. Daines has a good relationship with former President Donald Trump, the party’s presumptive presidential nominee.

The following excerpts from the breakfast have been lightly edited for length and clarity: 

Will having Mr. Trump at the top of the Republican ticket help or hurt your Senate candidates? 

It’s going to help in certain states, you know, the “blue wall,” places like Wisconsin, Michigan, certainly in Pennsylvania. You have these lower-propensity voters, oftentimes blue-collar voters, that are very supportive of President Trump and are going to show up in November. 

In Ohio [now a red state, where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown faces a tough reelection fight] you look at the difference between a midterm and a presidential. There’s about a 1 1/2  to almost 2 million higher voter turnout in the presidential, and the higher the turnout, the better it’s going to be for Republicans.

How will the abortion issue play in Senate elections? 

We’ve done extensive work in polling, as well as focus groups, particularly with women and suburban women voters. With single women, it’s the most important issue. We’ve said, first, it’s very important, supporting exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother, and then supporting reasonable limits on late-term abortion. The majority of the American people support that position. 

That’s a lesson learned from ’22 – to get the message right, and also for candidates to state where they stand on the issue. We expect each respective senator to take the position that’s right for each respective state. I wish you’d ask every Democrat where they would draw a line for taxpayer-funded abortion. 

Can Republicans avoid talking about abortion?

I think you’re already seeing it in most races right now. The voters want to talk about the border. They want to talk about inflation. They want to talk about crime. That’s top-of-mind issues in virtually every poll. You take the Republicans, independents, and Democrats. That’s where it lands.

How do you see the politics of the unrest on college campuses over Israel and Gaza?

It’s a dangerous moment in U.S. history. And we must stand up firm with full-throated rebuke and condemnation for what’s happening with the hate and the violence against these Jewish students and Jewish professors. Now, politically speaking, I think it’s a problem for the Democrats. 

We’ll see what happens as we get closer to the fall. This could be a big problem for Democrats [at their convention] in August in Chicago. But I’m guessing these same students that are pretty fired up right now on the campuses in May – remember, they’re going to be taking finals and going home here pretty soon. But they’ll be coming back in the fall. This could be a problem for the Democrats, politically speaking.