2018
April
26
Thursday

Monitor Daily Podcast

April 26, 2018
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TODAY’S INTRO

Monitor Daily Intro for April 26, 2018

Yvonne Zipp
Features Editor

When Americans talk about memorials in the South, they’re usually talking about Confederate statues.

Today, a new memorial is opening – one that those who have seen it say is unlike any that has come before.

In Montgomery, Ala., 800 rust-red blocks rise in the air. They are inscribed with the names of the more than 4,400 black Americans who were brutally murdered between 1877 and 1950 during a wave of racial terrorism that swept the South.

The lynching memorial honors the memories of the men, women, and children whose murders previously were not spoken of – their families terrorized into silence, the towns that perpetrated the crimes unwilling to talk about their past. One frequent inscription is “unknown.”

The National Memorial for Peace and Justice is modeled after the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin and the Apartheid Museum in Johannesburg, South Africa. It was created by the Equal Justice Initiative, whose director Bryan Stevenson has represented impoverished death-row inmates for decades and won a MacArthur award for his human rights work.

Mr. Stevenson, whose great-grandparents were enslaved, calls racism a pollution that infects the air we breathe. To cleanse the country, he says, it’s necessary to confront the truth. Only then can reconciliation come.

“In these communities where people actually cheered and celebrated while black people were burned and brutalized, you want people to recover, to repent,” he told The New York Times. “Not just because you want to see them on their knees, but because you know that on the other side of that there’s a kind of liberation. There’s a kind of redemption.” You can scroll down to catch a glimpse of his vision in our Viewfinder today.

Now to our five stories of the day, including the examination of the very different messages underlying mass protests in two countries.

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South Korea’s summit aim: Prove talk with Kim is worth the while

At a much-scrutinized event Friday – where even the timing of the handshake has been negotiated in advance – a North Korean leader will sit down with his South Korean counterpart for only the third time in history. For South Korea's Moon Jae-in, the summit is a crucial chance to prove engagement doesn't mean appeasement. 

Ahn Young-joon/AP
People watch a TV broadcast showing images of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (r.) and South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the Seoul railway station in South Korea in March. Mr. Kim will be in uncharted territory when the third-generation autocrat crosses over to the southern half of the demilitarized zone separating the rival Koreas on April 27 to meet with Mr. Moon.
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South Korean President Moon Jae-in has kept the door open to diplomatic engagement with his northern neighbor, echoing past administrations’ “sunshine policy” in the early 2000s. But his strategy faced growing skepticism last year, both at home and abroad, as North Korea launched a volley of missile and nuclear tests. And engagement with Pyongyang had perhaps no louder critic than one in the White House, who warned his own secretary of State that talking with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was a waste of time. But Mr. Moon’s breakthrough came when Pyongyang accepted his invitation to participate in the Winter Olympics. And tomorrow, he sits down with Mr. Kim himself in the demilitarized zone for a history-making summit – the toughest test yet for his pro-engagement strategy. “Moon has done a great job in reversing the course and turning conflict into dialogue,” says one analyst. “He has been a good facilitator between North Korea and the United States.” But “It’s like a relay race,” he adds. “South Korea has got a good start, but the United States needs to finish.”

South Korea’s summit aim: Prove talk with Kim is worth the while

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South Korean President Moon Jae-in isn’t taking any chances ahead of his historic meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Friday. Officials from President Moon’s office have met with their counterparts from across the border three times to coordinate everything from security measures to media coverage. Even the timing of the handshake between the two leaders has been planned in excruciating detail – not to mention their symbol-laden dinner menu, featuring Pyongyang’s trademark noodles and an elaborate mousse with a map of the Korean peninsula. 

Much will be on the line during the meeting on the South Korean side of Panmunjom, a so-called truce village that straddles the border. Not only will it be the first time leaders of the two Koreas have met since 2007; it will also be the first time a supreme leader from the North sets foot in the South. The two men are expected to discuss the North’s nuclear weapons and missile programs and an official end to the Korean War, which ended in a stalemate in 1953 after three years of fighting.

For Moon, the summit presents the biggest test yet of his pro-engagement strategy toward North Korea. While progressives in South Korea widely support his approach, many conservatives remain deeply skeptical of where it will lead. The challenge Moon faces is to convince them – and Washington – that engagement doesn’t mean appeasement, a waste of time, or, worse yet, a gift of time to further bolster the North’s nuclear arsenal.

“We are standing at a crossroad to denuclearization not by military measures but through peaceful means and permanent peace," Moon said during a meeting with his top aides in Seoul on Monday. “The entire world is watching and the entire world is hoping for its success.”

The overarching goal of the summit on Friday is to lay the groundwork for Mr. Kim’s meeting with President Trump in late May or early June. To do that, Moon will need to convince Kim to keep denuclearization on the table, in hopes of aid or a security guarantee down the line. If Moon succeeds, the Korean Peninsula could be one step closer to lasting peace. If he fails, the risk of war on the peninsula could become greater than ever.

“Moon is taking a huge risk by trying to bring Kim and Trump together,” says Scott Snyder, a senior fellow for Korea Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “It’s clear that the North Koreans are willing to have a dialogue, but it’s unclear if that dialogue will lead to full denuclearization,” the outcome that Mr. Trump has emphasized.

Apart from denuclearization, there are two other key issues on Friday’s agenda: a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War, and improving inter-Korean relations. Yet analysts don’t expect the summit to produce any major breakthroughs in and of itself, and say that any joint statement from Moon and Kim is likely to be short on specifics. Instead, many view the summit as simply a step toward the more substantial negotiations between Kim and Trump.

The stakes couldn’t be much higher. Last year, North Korea tested its sixth and most powerful nuclear device and three intercontinental ballistic missiles that experts warn could reach the US mainland. In response to the tests, the United Nations passed its harshest sanctions ever against North Korea. Meanwhile, fears of a US military strike on the North started to grow as Trump threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea, and said trying to negotiate with Kim was a waste of time.

Ahn Young-joon/AP
Members of a South Korean women's peace group stage a rally at the Imjingak Pavilion in Paju, near the border with North Korea, on April 26, 2018, to support the upcoming summit between South and North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in will plant a commemorative tree and inspect an honor guard together after Kim walks across the border Friday for their historic summit, Seoul officials said.

Despite the rising tensions – including the threats and insults Trump and Kim flung at one another – Moon maintained his commitment to peace through dialogue. He made his position clear in a speech he delivered in Berlin last July, two days after Pyongyang’s first intercontinental ballistic missile test, while asserting that Seoul must “sit in the driver’s seat” to manage the precarious situation on the Korean Peninsula.

“President Moon deserves a great deal of credit,” says Bong Young-shik, a research fellow at the Institute for North Korean Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. “He has walked a very fine line.”

Moon’s focus on engagement with North Korea stands in stark contrast to the hardline approach taken by his predecessor, Park Geun-hye. His strategy more closely resembles the “sunshine policy” pursued by Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, two liberals who held power from 1998 to 2008.

The “sunshine policy” emphasized diplomatic and economic engagement with the North, but it failed to secure any concrete gains and clashed with the more aggressive policies favored by President George W. Bush. In light of the policy’s shortcomings, analysts say, Moon has embraced dialogue with the North while still supporting the economic sanctions championed by the US.

“Moon knows that he has to keep the United States on his side,” Mr. Bong says. “He has not wavered in keeping maximum economic pressure on the North.”

At the same time, Moon has made sure to keep the door open for diplomatic engagement, a strategy that faced criticism during much of 2017 as Pyongyang ramped up its weapons testing. Moon’s first breakthrough came when North Korea accepted his invitation to participate in the Winter Olympics. The Games were widely hailed as a success, and they set in motion the series of events that led to this week’s summit.

“Moon has done a great job in reversing the course and turning conflict into dialogue,” say Shin Gi-wook, the director of the Korea Program at Stanford University. “He has been a good facilitator between North Korea and the United States.”

But facilitating will only get Moon so far before Trump needs to step in. “It’s like a relay race,” Dr. Shin says. “South Korea has got a good start, but the United States needs to finish.”

Now that talks are under way, Moon can only hope that Kim and Trump keep them going. The US president welcomed Kim’s announcement last week that North Korea no longer needed missile and nuclear tests, and would close a key nuclear facility – a mountain test site which reportedly has partially collapsed and is unsafe for further use. While many experts remain skeptical of Kim’s commitment, Trump has so far spoken positively about the prospect of negotiations. On Tuesday, he praised the North Korean leader as “very open and I think very honorable.”

Still, there is a large gap between what Kim has pledged and what the White House has demanded: full denuclearization. Whether Moon can find a way to help narrow that gap will go a long way in determining the chances of the US and North Korea reaching any agreement. Failure to do so could spell the end of his engagement strategy by pushing officials in Seoul and Washington to endorse a more hard-line approach. Alternatively, Moon could decide to risk South Korea's partnership with the US and continue bilateral negotiations with North Korea.

“If the meetings fall apart, then conservatives in South Korea will blame Moon,” Shin says. “They will say that we were deceived by North Korea once again.”

But some analysts question how much influence Moon will have over the US-North Korea summit. Jenny Town, assistant director of the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, says that while the US will take what comes out of Friday’s meeting into consideration, it will also pursue its own agenda, which could include stricter terms about denuclearization.

“The Moon administration has portrayed this as a lead-in to the next summit, as if it’s almost guaranteed that whatever they come up with the US will rubber stamp,” she says. “I don’t know if that’s really the case.”

For the next 24 hours, however, all eyes will be on Panmunjom, and whether the two Korean leaders’ talks will clear a path for a US-Pyongyang summit in the first place.

“Moon’s job is to make a good volley,” says Mr. Snyder of the Council on Foreign Relations, “and then we’ll wait and see if Trump can spike the ball."

Low unemployment, but US job-market challenges still linger

Even with a strong economy, many Americans have grown detached from the job market. It's sparked a rare bipartisan moment: a focus on getting Americans back into the workforce. As economist Isabel Sawhill puts it, “Work provides self-respect and a sense of well-being and makes for healthier communities.”

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It may sound odd that politicians are pushing for more jobs at a time when the unemployment rate sits at a 17-year low and many companies are begging for workers. Nevertheless, that’s exactly what politicians on both sides of the aisle are doing. In addition to traditional worries about the unemployment rate in places left behind by the recovery, they’re also focusing on a statistic that usually gets less attention: the labor participation rate. After peaking in 2000, the share of adults in the workforce fell several percentage points to levels not seen since the 1980s, although it has recovered somewhat. Reasons range from young adults staying in school longer to discouragement, drug addiction, and skills that don’t match today’s jobs. That’s why Democratic Sens. Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker, and others are looking at federal job-guarantee programs and Republicans are looking at ways to push more discouraged workers into the labor force. The two parties differ on policy but largely share the goal. “I think the Sanders people are right to recognize that that’s an important objective for policy,” Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said Thursday at a Monitor Breakfast.

Low unemployment, but US job-market challenges still linger

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Matt Orlando/The Christian Science Monitor
Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, speaks at a Monitor Breakfast on April 26, 2018, in Washington.

Ty Davenport is a man on a mission. As economic development director for Fairfield County in South Carolina, he’s traveling to places like Colorado and Germany trying to bring jobs back to a place that very much needs them.

Even though the national unemployment rate is down to 4.1 percent, pockets of the country – including his area – still face high joblessness, such as Fairfield County’s 9.5 percent. Often that's coupled with a high number of working-age people who have become disengaged from the labor force for reasons that range from discouragement and drug addiction to skills that don’t match today’s jobs.

In South Carolina, only 58.6 percent of working-age adults are in the labor force, well below both the national level (62.7 percent) and prior levels (in 2000 it stood at 67 percent nationally and similarly in the state).

It’s a hint of the job-market challenges that linger in America, even after a long recovery from recession. Will there be enough jobs, in an era of ever-rising automation? Will less-educated workers be able to make a living wage? These questions have retained their salience for both political parties despite a plunging official US jobless rate.

President Trump tweets persistently about “jobs, jobs, jobs!” and his annual economic report in February featured a chapter largely about how to boost labor-force participation. This week came a report that Sen. Bernie Sanders, who sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016, will soon pitch the idea of a guaranteed job for everyone who wants or needs one.

“I think the Sanders people are right to recognize that that’s an important objective for policy,” Kevin Hassett, chairman of Mr. Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, said Thursday, referring to the goal of a more inclusive job market.

“I’m hopeful that by the time we write the economic report of the president and release it next February, that we’ll have a significantly more optimistic forecast for labor-force participation than we had in this report,” added Mr. Hassett, speaking to reporters at a breakfast hosted by The Christian Science Monitor.

The bipartisan aspiration may sound ho-hum; who’s not for more jobs? Yet the shared focus is notable given that some economists see the job market essentially already at “full employment,” where the unemployment rate can’t fall much further without fueling inflation and risking an overheated economy.

Hassett is among economists who have opined that a still-lower unemployment is achievable. At a conference last week he said joblessness below 4 percent may be equivalent to full employment now. “I think it could be in the 3’s now,” he said, according to a Bloomberg report.

David McNew/AP/File
A woman filled out a job application during a job fair for the homeless at the Los Angeles Mission in the Skid Row area of Los Angeles in June 2015. A strong economy in the past few years has had some success drawing sidelined people back into the job market, and White House economist Kevin Hassett sees room for progress to continue. The official unemployment rate is 4.1 percent, but fewer people of prime working age are participating in the labor force (working or seeking work) than a generation ago.

Not surprisingly, the two major political parties differ on how to boost job-market opportunity and inclusion. Where Democrats emphasize the role that public spending can play, Hassett, Trump, and other Republicans see a key role for unleashing private investment and expanding individual incentives to work.

Yet there’s also common ground: Some on both sides have voiced concern about the role that drug addiction, prison records, and inadequate education and training have played in sidelining potential workers. Ditto for the need to address localized challenges like those in Fairfield County.

“One of the big divides is not so much on what we need to do but on how we pay for it,” says Isabel Sawhill, a Brookings Institution economist who’s involved in an effort among conservative and liberal experts to find common ground on work-related policy proposals.

Participation headed back up?

Hassett, at the Monitor Breakfast, said a positive shift in workforce participation may already be under way thanks to the strong economy.

“If you look at the chart, it was basically headed straight down” in the new millennium, and particularly since the Great Recession, he said. “Now it’s actually maybe even heading up, and the chart is really quite striking. I think that’s because … the tight labor market and increasing wage growth are attracting people back into the labor force.”

Since 2015, the share of civilians age 25 to 54 who are in the labor force has risen by nearly two full percentage points, according to Labor Department data.

Speaking to people who got discouraged in the past and felt the emotional strain of rejected job applications, Hassett said, “You should try it again right now. There’s been an enormous amount of success for people reattaching to the labor force.”

Ms. Sawhill echoes the idea that a strong economy is one of the best antidotes to weak participation in the workforce.

“[But] there are some risks to stepping on the gas too hard right now, because we don't want to have a credit bubble that creates another financial crisis,” she says.

Going for growth, not debt-reduction

Economists see the Trump tax cuts, coupled with a spending hike recently signed by the president, as a stimulus to the economy in the short run, but also as adding to a national debt burden – possibly harming long-term growth and leaving the nation in a poorer position to fight the next recession.

While Hassett agreed that deficits need to be tackled, right now neither party seems focused on fiscal discipline. As Republicans champion what they see as the growth-inducing power of tax cuts, some leading Democrats are touting economic plans that would boost spending.

Sen. Cory Booker (D) of New Jersey recently said he plans to introduce legislation for a model federal job-guarantee program in 15 high-unemployment communities and regions, as a step toward possibly going nationwide with the idea.

“Both Martin Luther King Jr. and President Franklin Roosevelt believed that every American had the right to a job, and that right has only become more important in this age of increasing income inequality, labor market concentration, and continued employment discrimination,” he said in a statement announcing his plans.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, another possible contender for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, is supporting similar ideas.

Federal job creation under such plans could focus on areas such as infrastructure and education, where investment could arguably help boost America’s future prosperity as well as provide current jobs. But critics say the job-guarantee programs would be very costly and could disrupt private-sector job markets.

Work requirements for a safety net?

Republicans, meanwhile, are stirring controversy with their own ideas to embed more work requirements into safety net programs like food stamps. The idea has the potential to appeal across ideological lines, depending on how the work requirements are designed. But coming after tax cuts that benefit the rich, a GOP proposal attaching work requirements to food stamps is drawing fierce opposition from Democrats in Congress.

The stakes surrounding the issue go beyond mere dollars in the economy.

“Work provides self-respect and a sense of well-being and makes for healthier communities,” Sawhill says. “Work is a core activity and a core value in our society. [Often] when people aren't working other things fall apart – families, marriages, relationships with children.”

In his work for Fairfield County, Mr. Davenport is hoping that new job opportunities will arrive as a tight national job market helps him make the case to employers who are looking for a place to expand.

After the closure of a Caterpillar plant and a tire-industry factory, and cancellation of a nuclear-plant expansion, “a lot of those [unemployed] folks are still talented and educated and trained and still living in the area,” Davenport says.

He hopes new tax incentives will also help make the case. The Trump tax cuts call for the creation of “opportunity zones” where investors can gain tax relief by creating jobs – and Fairfield County expects to be a beneficiary.

“We've really ramped up our marketing efforts,” he says, while awaiting a meeting in Denver with a firm that he hopes will become a South Carolina job creator.

SOURCE:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

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Jacob Turcotte/Staff

What its cool stance on Armenian unrest says about Russia’s outlook

Does the Kremlin really fear democracy, as some have claimed? Russia's calm response to the "color" revolution going on in Armenia suggests not. Past Russian concern about revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia really probably was about NATO.

Narek Aleksanyan/PAN/AP
Protesters display an Armenian flag in Republic Square in Yerevan, Armenia, on April 25. Several thousand protesters took to the streets of the Armenian capital after talks between the opposition and the acting prime minister were called off.
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Armenia could be on the verge of striking a major blow for democracy and the power of civil society. Popular protests have undone an attempted power grab by the now-former prime minister, and his likely replacement is seeking sweeping political reforms. From all the hallmarks, it looks like another of the “color revolutions” in post-Soviet countries over the past decade and a half. But where Russia regarded most “color revolutions” as a dire threat, it has been surprisingly calm about events in Armenia. That, analysts say, is because the upheaval is purely an internal matter, and has no impact on Armenia’s standing between Russia and the West. The tiny republic, which depends on Russia for trade and security, will continue to do so moving ahead. “Armenia is in a complicated geopolitical situation, but the bottom line is that it doesn't have many alternatives,” says Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the official Institute for the Commonwealth of Independent States. “It needs Russia and is not likely to change its geopolitical position no matter who comes to power.”

What its cool stance on Armenian unrest says about Russia’s outlook

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It looks like the typical “color revolution.”

Pro-democracy crowds take to the streets in the capital of some post-Soviet republic to peacefully protest the political manipulations of their Moscow-friendly ruling elite and demand sweeping reforms to the corrupt, oligarchic economic system they've grown to despise.

That's what's happening right now in Armenia. For over two weeks, huge, mostly youthful crowds have been holding rolling demonstrations in the center of Yerevan and other Armenian cities, reacting to an attempt by two-term President Serzh Sargsyan to extend his grip on power. Most previous “color revolutions” in the former Soviet Union have been similarly triggered by fraudulent elections or other duplicitous abuses of power.

But unlike those previous cases, the massive popular upsurge in Armenia went almost unnoticed in Western capitals for 10 days, until Mr. Sargsyan suddenly bowed to the street and stepped aside last Monday. Moreover, Russia, which is home to more than 2 million Armenians and has been obsessed with the supposedly dire threat of “color revolutions” for years, was more alert but surprisingly calm.

Things are still up in the air on the streets of Yerevan, and the tense drama may well end up striking a major blow for democracy and the power of civil society. But there are few, if any, geopolitical stakes in Armenia. While the government might become more democratic, Armenia's reliance on Russia for trade and security will not change. And that is the main reason for the almost disinterested shrugs on all sides.

“We may await wide-scale changes in domestic policies. New people may come to the top, with a whole new attitude,” says Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the independent Caucasus Institute in Yerevan. “But this revolution has an entirely internal genesis. Foreign policy isn't even a subject for discussion.”

'Russia will not intervene'

The tiny, landlocked republic of Armenia is a traditional Russian ally, a member of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union and military Collective Security Treaty Organization, and wedged between its long-standing enemies Turkey and Azerbaijan. So, it depends heavily on Russia for its national security.

Though chronically poor by Western standards, over half of Armenians have post-secondary education. Large numbers go abroad for permanent or temporary employment. There are huge Armenian diasporas in Russia, North America, and Europe, and contacts are intense. The country of around 3 million people has enjoyed about 7 percent annual growth in recent years, but its GDP of around 11 billion is modest and heavily dependent on around $500 million in annual remittances from Armenians working abroad, mostly in Russia.

The recent street revolt came in response to Sargsyan's attempt to “pull a Putin” by changing the constitution to vest the lion's share of authority in the parliament, then getting his ruling Republican party to name him prime minister. Though his party did appoint him prime minister, he only lasted six days before resigning under popular pressure.

The largely spontaneous eruption ended up with Nikol Pashinyan, whose Civil Contract party holds just 8 percent of the seats in the parliament, as its leading symbol and most likely beneficiary. He is demanding that the parliament choose a “people's candidate” who is not from the ruling Republican Party when it meets to decide on a new prime minister on May 1. Beyond that, he demands new elections and sweeping political reforms.

He hasn't suggested any changes to Armenia's complex relations with Russia. “I had a meeting with an official from Moscow and got reassurance that Russia would not intervene in Armenia's internal affairs,” Mr. Pashinyan told a rally in central Yerevan earlier this week.

That's a marked break from the Russian reaction to similar events which unfolded over the past decade and a half in Georgia, twice in Ukraine, and even twice in distant Kyrgyzstan. But in this case, the Kremlin has indeed repeatedly insisted that there is no cause for alarm. The fiery Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, even took to her Facebook page to declare “Armenia, Russia always stands with you!”

But in fact, Russia has not shown much interest in blocking Armenia's dalliances with democracy, including those with the European Union. In 2017, without any apparent objection from Moscow, Armenia signed a revised Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU, and announced its intentions to keep developing its relations with both Russia and the EU, even though its main trading partner is Russia.

Armenia needs Russia

That boils down in large part, analysts say, to the immutability of Armenia's security needs – even if it becomes more democratic.

“Armenia is in a complicated geopolitical situation, but the bottom line is that it doesn't have many alternatives,” says Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute for the Commonwealth of Independent States, part of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “It is very connected with its diaspora around the world, who are very influential. It always has maintained good relations with both Russia and the West. But, given that it is locked in [a frozen] war with Azerbaijan over [the Armenian-populated territory of] Nagorno-Karabakh, and has NATO member Turkey on its other border, it needs Russia and is not likely to change its geopolitical position no matter who comes to power.”

As a sharp example of a post-Soviet country whose population chafes at Russian-style “managed democracy” and corrupt crony-oriented economic policies, Armenia's pro-democracy revolt seems another in a familiar series rocking the Putin-era ex-Soviet region. But as a Moscow vassal tearing itself free and rushing into the West's embrace, not so much.

“It bears all the hallmarks of a 'colored revolution,' but it's completely driven by domestic politics,” says Sergei Strokan, foreign affairs columnist for the Moscow business daily Kommersant. “Armenia's agreement with the EU is mostly symbolic, since it remains highly dependent on Russian loans, arms, and trade. Indeed, there's very little the West could offer Armenia, even if there was a Ukrainian-style mood to change sides on the streets in Yerevan today. But there isn't. And I doubt the events in Armenia even register very much on US or European agendas at all as these very dramatic events unfold.”

Why reform bid, now withdrawn, ignited long-docile Nicaragua

Nicaragua's revolutionary leader, Daniel Ortega, is suddenly facing his own revolution. Long seen as compliant in the face of increasing authoritarianism, the country has been roiled in the past week by protesters who refuse to back down until new elections are held. One key age group: People too young to remember the Sandinista revolution that brought Mr. Ortega to power.

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When protesters took to the streets in Nicaragua last week to oppose changes to social-security benefits, few expected President Daniel Ortega to yield. For more than a decade, Mr. Ortega – a Socialist whose revolutionary forces fought in the 1980s against US-backed contra rebels – has hollowed out the country’s democratic institutions. His opponents rarely win. But the latest protests, and Ortega’s brutal response to them, have led to sustained antigovernment activism that now threatens his grip on power. The reforms have been shelved. But demonstrators, including university students, are seething at the regime’s violent tactics and want to see justice done and new elections held. Behind this shift is an emboldened young generation who didn’t experience the revolution. “The social security was just the trigger, and then this is the spontaneous combustion,” says a Nicaraguan sociologist. Ortega’s position is also weaker because Venezuela has cut the aid that paid for Nicaragua’s social programs. The survival of his Socialist government may depend, ironically, on the business class that he has cultivated. But the crack in his regime won’t easily be papered over.

Why reform bid, now withdrawn, ignited long-docile Nicaragua

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Jose Cabezas/Reuters
People participate in a protest against police violence and the government of Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega in Managua, Nicaragua, on April 25, 2018.

On a grassy embankment in Managua, dozens of metal crosses with black flags honoring the dead and disappeared stand as a coda to more than a week of anti-government unrest. Beside the makeshift memorial, protesters dressed in black chant, “They weren’t criminals, they were students!”

Amid a cacophony of clanging cymbals and honking klaxons, Maria, a chef in her late 50s, stands in front of one of the crosses. She laments her silence during the long and increasingly repressive rule of President Daniel Ortega, a Socialist revolutionary who joined the fight to oust a US-backed dictator in 1979.

“With this government, we’ve been quiet,” she says. “We thought that these people who have power now were saints. They aren’t saints, they’re criminals.”

Over the past nine days, protests have rocked this tiny nation, often viewed as an island of stability in Central America. Hundreds of people took to the streets to oppose social-security reforms that would require workers to pay more and receive fewer benefits. Protesters and analysts here say that the reform – since reversed by Mr. Ortega – simply ignited the flame of anger and frustration that’s been smoldering for the past decade, as Ortega has centralized power, curbed media freedoms, and made his wife the vice president.

The government’s violent response to what started off as small-scale student protests has led to nationwide calls for new elections, raising doubts over the survival of Ortega and his Sandinista movement.

“The Sandinistas stopped being a revolutionary party long ago. It has forgotten its ethical principles and created an elite,” says Cirilo Otero, a sociologist and columnist for national newspaper La Prensa. “The social security was just the trigger, and then this is the spontaneous combustion.”

Another factor: Venezuela, an aligned leftist regional power, is pulling back aid and falling into its own political tailspin, making Nicaraguans think twice about going down the same path.

'I can't just cross my arms'

On Wednesday afternoon, students gathered in front of a police line guarding El Chipote prison to call for the release of scores of young protesters who have been detained without criminal charges over the past week.

Human rights groups say over 30 people have been killed, an unknown number are disappeared, and hundreds more have been detained during the unrest, while those in custody have reportedly been abused. Unarmed street protesters were beaten by police and pro-government militias, which Ortega claimed was the work of provocateurs trying to undermine him.

“For me, it’s simple. People have let history repeat itself,” says Sophia Paz, a college student waiting in front of the prison. She says the curbs on political rights under Ortega echo the dictatorship the Sandinistas overthrew in 1979, a struggle that her own parents joined.

“I have in my mind that there’s a chance I won’t return home, but if I don’t [protest] what is going to happen – let them take advantage of us more?” she asks. “Our parents stood up and fought and now we need to. I can’t just cross my arms.”

Students have been at the heart of the protests, in large part because their parents and older generations had been afraid of speaking out against the government. Nicaraguans under the age of 35 make up nearly two-thirds of the population of 6 million, and their frustration over their educational and job opportunities has been building for years. Young Nicaraguans are also more likely to be digitally connected, and to follow global political news. This is partly Ortega’s doing: Public parks now offer free internet access.  

For Lilly Arellano, a middle-aged doctor turned protester, Nicaraguans’ quiescence has long been grounded in fear, a spell that appears to have been broken. “They’ve always threatened people’s livelihood if they go against the government and repressed protest with these paramilitaries that they support. We had responsibilities, so we kept our mouths shut.”

A role for church mediators

As political tensions have risen, the Catholic Church agreed Tuesday to mediate negotiations between the government, students, and other private sectors, including COSEP, the powerful business chamber that has largely stood by Ortega. Students initially refused to participate in the talks, but agreed late Wednesday to join if the government meets certain conditions, like investigating protester murders. They say they will continue their demonstrations.

A 2016 survey by Vanderbilt University shows that Nicaraguans have become more cautious about expressing their political opinions, even among friends. Kenneth Coleman, who helped gather data for the survey in 2014, says this speaks to the hollowing out of democratic institutions and freedom of expression under Ortega. “Everyone is using veiled language” when criticizing his weakening of the judiciary and other checks on power, including COSEP, an unlikely capitalist ally for Ortega’s socialist regime.

That Ortega leans on Nicaragua’s business class may yet be his Achilles’ heel. Last Friday, COSEP issued a supportive statement for the students taking to the streets. In an interview, the president of COSEP said that the government needed to change course if it wanted to avoid inciting further unrest.

“What’s been happening since Wednesday is a bit of a surprise for us – especially how the security forces are repressing” citizens, says José Adán Aguerri. “If they don’t create a base of change and respond to the people, we are going to end up in the same spot again.”

Venezuela's gusher runs dry 

Ortega has long cultivated Venezuela’s socialist rulers as patrons. But after a decade of subsidized oil and cheap loans the gusher has gone largely dry as Venezuela’s economy has crashed. That’s made it tougher for Nicaragua to fund social programs that have long placated the country’s poor. It’s also painted a vivid picture of what Nicaragua could become if its leaders are allowed free reign to concentrate power and quash civil liberties, observers say.

“People are discontent. And now they look around and think, ‘If we stay on this path, we could end up like Venezuela, with a dictator who has concentrated power and made it disastrous to recuperate,” says Ricardo de Léon Borge, a political analyst in Managua.

Students are calling for Ortega, who has been president since 2007 and changed the constitution to allow him to stand again, to step down before the end of his current term in 2021. Even if Ortega agreed to early elections, there are no obvious opposition candidates at this point. Most students are disillusioned with political parties, saying they have no interest in running for office themselves, says Mr. de Léon Borge. “If Ortega is smart about it, he could call early elections and play those divisions to his political advantage.”

Arturo Cruz, who served as ambassador to the US and Canada under Ortega between 2007 and 2009 who now teaches at INCAE Business School in Costa Rica, says he would prefer that the president finish out his term before leaving office so that the transition can succeed. “History in Latin America shows that your legacy is determined not by how your rule, but by how you leave,” he says.  

On Film

Our critic’s take: Three must-see movies for April

Peter Rainer does some real genre-jumping in his monthly best-of roundup. His picks include a story about a boy and his horse, a documentary that explores China’s Cultural Revolution in the context of three other radical late-’60s movements, and a horror film that innovates its way far beyond the standard scarefest. 

Jonny Cournoyer/Paramount Pictures/AP
Emily Blunt and Millicent Simmonds star in 'A Quiet Place.' The Monitor’s Peter Rainer calls it 'one of the most inventive and beautifully crafted and acted horror movies [he’s] seen in a very long time.'

Our critic’s take: Three must-see movies for April

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Emily Blunt (L.) and Millicent Simmonds star in 'A Quiet Place.'

A story about a boy and his horse and an innovative horror film are two of the movies that wowed Monitor film critic Peter Rainer during April.

‘A Quiet Place’ is about a good deal more than scaring us

At a brisk 90 minutes, "A Quiet Place" is one of the most inventive and beautifully crafted and acted horror movies I’ve seen in a very long time, and I think the main reason for its power is the family crisis at its core. John Krasinski, who costars, directed, and co-wrote the script, understands something crucial that is lost on far too many horrormeisters: The more we care about the people in a scare picture, the scarier and more emotionally imposing it becomes. 

The film’s setting is an apocalyptic near-future where the planet’s population has been decimated by ravenous crustacean-looking aliens who possess supersensitive hearing. Lee and Evelyn Abbott (Krasinski and Emily Blunt) and their two young children, Marcus (Noah Jupe) and Regan (Millicent Simmonds), have enclosed themselves in their isolated upstate New York homestead. 

I would admire “A Quiet Place” even if it were just a terrific scarefest. But what makes it a classic is that, like “Get Out,” a body-snatching movie about racism, or “The Babadook,” a supernatural horror film about childhood fears, it also works so well on so many other levels. It transcends its genre even as it fulfills it. Grade: A- (Rated PG-13 for terror and some bloody images.)

‘In the Intense Now’ is document of incendiary time 

Brazilian writer-director João Moreira Salles intercuts his mother’s movies of a 1966 group tour in China during the inception of the most radical phase of the Cultural Revolution with archival footage from three other radical movements, all from 1968: The May uprisings in France; the brutal ending of the Prague Spring; and the brief rebellion in Brazil against the reigning military dictatorship. 

It takes a while to get into the ruminative rhythm of this film. But it’s worth it. Salles is interested not only in the brief efflorescence of radicalism and rebellion in those years. He’s also caught up by what came after: the sense of loss that results from hopes shattered. 

It’s difficult to get all misty-eyed about students whose shining hour was lit, however blindly, by the depredations of Maoist and Soviet Communism. It’s more than a bit confusing that Salles doesn’t more acutely recognize the error of his ways in showcasing the parallel insurrections of France and Czechoslovakia as if they were on the same human rights plane.

In the end, the political confusions of Salles’s movie, which seem all of a piece with the political confusions of that era, sit small beside its achievement as a document of an incendiary time when hope, along with the stench of tear gas and gunfire, was in the air. Grade: B+

'Lean on Pete' is a tale of a boy and his horse

Fifteen-year-old Charley Thompson (Charlie Plummer) has recently relocated with his itinerant single father, Ray (Travis Fimmel), to Portland, Ore. and begins to frequent the local quarter horse track. A scruffy trainer and owner, Del Montgomery (Steve Buscemi), gives the boy part-time work, and pretty soon Charley has bonded with Lean on Pete, a 5-year-old quarter horse.

When a violent turn of events renders Charley essentially homeless, he attempts to rescue both Pete and himself by taking to the road. 

Writer-director Andrew Haigh is British, and his outsider’s eye probably accounts in part for the film’s lyrically askew vision of working-class fringes – the trailer homes, run-down fairgrounds, and homeless encampments. Plummer impresses here. Buscemi’s performance is likewise marvelous. 

Haigh’s films sometimes drift off into a desultory nothingness, but he has a real feeling for people – not to mention horses. At his best, he can strike more emotional notes from silence than most directors can with a full chorus of sound. Grade: B+ (Rated R for language and brief violence.)

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Why Trump and Merkel must discuss migration

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On Friday, the topic of migration will be on the table during a “working visit” by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to the White House. Both Ms. Merkel and President Trump have defined their political identity on the issue. Each has also been forced to learn they went too far. Merkel admits she made a mistake in welcoming so many migrants so quickly. For Mr. Trump, resistance from Congress and the courts has made him back down on many promises, such as insisting that Mexico pay for a border wall. In addition, both now recognize a greater need to stem the flow of migrants at its source: Germany is funding aid programs in Africa, while the US has tried to end the war in Syria. At a higher level, the US and Germany (along with much of Europe) are in the midst of reshaping their collective identity via the push and pull of debate over immigration. The key in such debates is humility to listen as equals for the best solutions. In their respective countries, Merkel and Trump have had to listen to others. Now they can listen to each other.

Why Trump and Merkel must discuss migration

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A group of Germans take part in an April 15 workshop, led by Syrian migrants, to learn the traditional Arabic dance Dabke in Berlin, Germany.

One reason so many migrants try to reach Europe or the United States is that both guarantee free and open debate – about issues such as immigration. Democracy is alluring in its demand of citizens to listen to one another out of respect for equality. Such ideals are rare in much of Africa, Central America, and the Middle East, which are the main sources of today’s mass migrations.

On Friday, the topic of migration will be on the table during a “working visit” by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to the White House. Both Ms. Merkel and President Trump have defined their political identity on the issue. In 2015, she flung open Germany’s borders to more than 1 million refugees and migrants. On the opposite side of the political spectrum, Trump has tried to close America’s borders, mainly to those from the south and from Muslim countries.

Each has been forced to learn they went too far. Merkel admits she made a mistake in welcoming so many migrants so quickly. Now an anti-immigrant party is her lead opposition. For Mr. Trump, resistance from Congress and the courts has made him back down on many promises, such as insisting Mexico pay for a border wall.

In addition, both now recognize a greater need to stem the flow of migrants at its source. Germany is funding aid programs in Africa, while the US has tried to curb the flow of people from Syria with, for instance, missile strikes after the recent use of chemical weapons on Syrian civilians.

At a higher level, both the US and Germany (along with much of Europe) are in the midst of reshaping their collective identity via the push and pull of debate over immigration. Which values are at stake in allowing a more pluralistic society? Can new migrants keep their identity but coexist with a nation’s overarching identity? How should a country balance rule of law and sovereignty against a compassion for refugees or a need for workers?

Answering such questions takes more democracy, not less. In a speech this month, French President Emmanuel Macron decried the rise of anti-immigration parties in Europe, or what he called “selfish nationalism.” He said the political divide over values within the European Union is like a “civil war.” He called on EU leaders “to have a democratic, critical debate on what Europe is about” before the next election for a new European Parliament in 2019.

Would-be migrants to Europe or the US are attracted by such calls for a democratic way of resolving differences. In a new book titled “Suicide of the West,” American writer Jonah Goldberg writes, “Nearly all higher forms of social organization expand the definition of ‘us’ to permit large forms of cooperation.” Over centuries of history, smaller identities have been shed for more expansive ones.

The key in such debates is humility to listen as equals for the best solutions. In their respective countries, Merkel and Trump have had to listen to their opponents. Now they can also listen to each other.

A Christian Science Perspective

About this feature

Each weekday, the Monitor includes one clearly labeled religious article offering spiritual insight on contemporary issues, including the news. The publication – in its various forms – is produced for anyone who cares about the progress of the human endeavor around the world and seeks news reported with compassion, intelligence, and an essentially constructive lens. For many, that caring has religious roots. For many, it does not. The Monitor has always embraced both audiences. The Monitor is owned by a church – The First Church of Christ, Scientist, in Boston – whose founder was concerned with both the state of the world and the quality of available news.

The power of prayer to heal

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Today’s contributor, who was having ongoing breathing difficulties because of allergies, shares how she was healed as a deeper sense of Christianity brought a new perspective of her real identity.

The power of prayer to heal

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Today's Christian Science Perspective audio edition

Some years ago, as I was listening to an inspirational talk, I marveled at an account the speaker shared of his complete recovery from a serious car accident through relying entirely on prayer. The seemingly miraculous account reminded me of Christ Jesus’ healings in the Bible, which I had learned about as a child in Protestant Sunday School but frankly had not thought about since.

I wanted to know more about how this healing was possible. The speaker was a Christian Scientist, so I began attending the Wednesday testimony meetings at the local Christian Science Society. Here I heard the members joyously share how they had been healed of a range of difficulties by relying solely on the spiritual laws of God.

Inspired by this, I began to study Christian Science. Gradually I learned that spiritual healing was the natural outcome of understanding that God, Spirit, is the very source of our existence and that each of us, as God’s spiritual child, reflects and expresses the infinite goodness that constitutes God’s being.

One analogy that helped me understand this radical line of spiritual reasoning is that of the inseparability of the sun from its rays. I saw that just as the sun pours forth light as rays, God expresses His attributes – beauty, harmony, holiness, etc. – in His offspring, man (a generic term that includes woman, too).

This statement in “Science and Health with Key to the Scriptures” by Monitor founder Mary Baker Eddy further clarified the idea of our inseparability from our creator: “As a drop of water is one with the ocean, a ray of light one with the sun, even so God and man, Father and son, are one in being” (p. 361). I loved this so much that I put it to song and sang it as a prayer throughout my day.

The more I acknowledged the spiritual fact of my oneness with God, the more harmony I experienced in my daily affairs. For instance, up to this point, I’d had extreme breathing difficulties owing to an allergy. Medical tests had identified pollen from the geranium flower as the cause for the difficulty. I wasn’t specifically seeking healing for this difficulty, nor had I even entirely grasped that healing of this particular condition could truly be possible. But my yearning to know more fully the presence and power of God, good, resulted in experiencing more of that goodness in my daily life, and over time my breathing became normal.

In fact, I actually forgot about the problem until some time later, after I’d moved to Canada and met and married a dear man who loved growing geraniums. He wintered them and then nurtured them into bloom the following summer. One summer, my mother came for a visit, and with great surprise she asked me, “What are you doing with geraniums in the house?” I burst into laughter, realizing what a complete healing I had experienced.

Reflecting on this experience, I now know that my prayer to feel God’s goodness governing my life was answered as I accepted that my true identity was, and is, the God-derived expression of God’s spiritual qualities, rather than just a mortal, material being. Humble prayer opens the door for our thought to become more spiritual, that is, to express our oneness with God, and in the process, our human experience improves, including our health!

A message of love

A solemn display

Brynn Anderson/AP
An early visitor walks through part of the National Memorial for Peace and Justice, a new memorial in Montgomery, Ala., built to honor thousands of people killed in racist lynchings and to help promote understanding and healing. Eight hundred steel monuments, inscribed with the locations of acts of violence and the names of those killed, are suspended from the memorial's ceiling.
( The illustrations in today’s Monitor Daily are by Jacob Turcotte. )

A look ahead

Come back tomorrow. Staff writer Ryan Lenora Brown will have a story about another museum, this one in Congo, wrestling with a country’s difficult past. It’s a question about who controls history.

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