Iraq attacks likely to increase during Ramadan, says US

With temperatures of 120 degrees, little electricity, and an expected increase in politically linked religious fervor around the Muslim holy month, Ramadan could bring a spike in Iraq attacks.

Mohammed Ameen/Reuters
Residents shop ahead of the fasting month of Ramadan at the Shorja wholesale market in central Baghdad Monday. Ramadan is the ninth and holiest month in the Islamic calendar, during which Muslims around the world abstain from eating or drinking from sunrise to sunset.

The US expects attacks in Iraq to continue to spike as the holy month of Ramadan begins this week, a top American general warned on Monday after explosions in the southern city of Basra resulted in one of the deadliest weekends in months.

Lt. Gen. Robert W. Cone, the deputy commanding general of US forces in Iraq, and his Iraqi counterpart told reporters that insurgents were also likely taking advantage of the lack of a government to launch a series of high-profile attacks aimed at reducing confidence in Iraqi security forces.

“We’ve seen in the last few days an increase in attacks here, particularly the Basra attack that we saw yesterday, which involved significant casualties and was of significant concern,” said Cone, who is in charge of operations for US Forces-Iraq.

Basra, crucial to reconstruction, targeted by bombs

Iraqi police officials initially said explosions in a crowded market on Saturday were a result of a generator exploding. But on Sunday, as the death toll rose to at least 43 dead and 185 injured, many of them women and children, it became clear that roadside bombs and a car bomb were responsible for the explosions.

Basra, Iraq’s second-biggest city and the capital of the southern oil region, has generally escaped the violence of Baghdad since Iraqi forces pushed out Shiite militias two years ago. The city, which is known as one of the calmest in the country, is vital to Iraq’s reconstruction.

“Traditionally we’ve seen an increase in attacks in the early part and just preceding Ramadan,” Cone said.

A trying Ramadan with 120 degree heat

The Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which rotates based on the lunar calendar, starts as early as Tuesday.

Politically linked religious fervor tends to rise during the month, during which Muslims believe God revealed the Koran to the prophet Mohammad. Devout Muslims abstain from eating or drinking even water from sunrise to sundown to foster patience and humility.

With temperatures hovering around 120 degrees and severe electricity shortages, this Ramadan is expected to be particularly arduous for many Iraqis.

Efforts to form a government more than five months after Iraqis went to the polls have stalled over disagreements by the main political parties over who would be prime minister and little progress is expected until after Ramadan ends in September. Iraqi officials believe many of the recent attacks are aimed at discrediting the outgoing Iraqi government by showing they cannot control security.

“The political situation that the country is passing through encourages terrorism to work with all its weight to change the course of the political process,” Gen. Ali Ghaidan, commander of Iraqi ground forces, told reporters Monday.

“Without a seated government, this would be a good time if the enemy had capacity that it would attempt to do things,” Cone said. “What they’re attempting to do is create enough high-profile attacks – they can’t sustain them very long but what they’re definitely doing is picking their opportunities to create the impression of instability.”

US, Iraqi generals confident in Iraqi Army

But both Cone and Ghaidan said that as remaining US combat troops withdraw this month, the Iraqi Army will be capable of maintaining security.

Attacks, particularly on Iraqi police, have spiked recently. Iraqi officials have reported between 300 and 500 Iraqis killed in attacks in July. US military officials, who do not normally release casualty figures have disputed the figures, saying fewer than 200 died in enemy attacks, but could not explain the discrepancy.

US military spokesman Maj. Gen. Steve Lanza said over the weekend that Al Qaeda in Iraq and other insurgent groups appeared to be trying to regain footholds in Anbar Province and Baghdad after their networks have been significantly weakened by US and Iraqi operations against them.

In Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province, six people were killed in a suicide car bomb at a gas station on Sunday.

On Monday in Baghdad, two traffic police and a civilian were killed in a bombing near police headquarters in Ghazaliya, in West Baghdad. Overall almost 30 traffic and city police are believed to have been killed in the past month.

Mohammad Dulaimy contributed reporting.

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