Europe in 2011 faces a debt crisis in a new age of austerity. At the end of 2010, much of the story line was dominated by student protests and union marches. In many countries, a hardening anti-immigrant sentiment is now going mainstream. Next year may be a bumpy ride.
In many ways, the euro crisis is putting the unity and idealism that characterized Europe after World War II, and after the fall of the Berlin Wall, in short supply.
Europe faces a political leadership deficit – as seen in the inability or unwillingness to deal effectively with the euro crisis in Greece and Ireland. Perhaps the top question for 2011 is whether Portugal, Spain, and Italy will be dragged into a eurozone bailout.
What will come of the euro, and European unity? German Chancellor Angela Merkel argues, "If the euro fails, Europe fails." Dominique Moisi, senior adviser at the French Institute for International Relations, says the new generation of young European leaders doubt a common future.
Indeed, the project of a united Europe moves in fits and starts. The euro was a major step. In 2010, Europe finally accepted a treaty for a federal structure for its 27 members. Estonia, the first ex-Soviet republic, joins the European Union on Jan. 1, 2012.
But since German reunification, Europe's center of gravity has shifted from the Rhine region to the Brandenburg Gate (and there's a decided sense of Europe-exhaustion in Berlin).
Europe flourished in the good weather brought by transatlantic security. How it will fare in the inclement weather of austerity is unknown and unaddressed. Next year brings the departure of Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank and an advocate for active market intervention by the ECB. A possible successor is Axel Weber, president of the Bundesbank.
Nearly every state is cutting budgets – even as the cost to service large sovereign debt rises. In Britain, students are rioting over university tuition fees going from $4,640 to $13,922. Whether Europe's famed welfare-state model can survive austerity is a huge question for 2011.
Immigration will remain an issue next year. Whether due to fears over job security, terrorism, or mosques in urban Europe, political and popular expression against Islam is rising. In December, Marine Le Pen, heir apparent to the far right and popular National Front in France, said that Muslims praying in French streets is akin to the Nazi occupation sans guns and uniforms. Such statements are no longer limited to the margins.
There are achievements that will have Europeans beaming. By year-end, the first part of the Nord Stream Pipeline, which connects Russia and Germany directly with natural gas, is expected to open. In October, the Berlin-Brandenburg International Airport, a sizable public works project, is expected to see its first flights. And France hosts the Group of Eight summit (in Deauville) in the summer and the G20 summit (in Cannes) in the fall.
European states are still the strongest bully pulpit for the end of greenhouse gases and carbon emissions called for by the Kyoto protocols. And, on April 29, most of Europe, and much of the world, will be enraptured by the royal wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton.
– Robert Marquand, Paris bureau chief
