Start of something big? Russia pulls a hundred citizens from Syria.

Though the Kremlin said the move was 'absolutely not an evacuation,' some wonder if it preludes the withdrawal of the tens of thousands of Russians living in war-torn Syria.

|
Jamal Saidi/Reuters
Lebanese soldiers escort Russian nationals during their arrival at the Lebanese border today. The Russians were evacuated from Damascus.

Russia began a small-scale evacuation of about 100 of its citizens from Syria Tuesday, in what experts warn could at any moment develop into a huge air-and-sealift of the up-to-40,000 Russians and their dependents believed to be in the war-torn country.

Russian media reported that officials from the Russian Embassy in Beirut safely escorted three busloads of Russians, mainly women and children, out of Syria on Tuesday. Two planes sent to Lebanon by Russia's Ministry of Emergency Services will airlift about 100 people to Moscow, reports say.

The evacuation is being characterized as a limited operation aimed at bringing out a few people who have requested it. Without offering any further explanation, Russian official sources say the numbers of Russian citizens requesting repatriation has actually fallen, from about 1,000 last October to less than 100 in December.

But under the guise of ongoing war games in the eastern Mediterranean, the Russian Navy has, since last summer, maintained a squadron of warships. That squadron includes several huge amphibious assault vessels capable of carrying thousands of people, within a few hours sailing time of the Russian Naval supply facility in Tartus, Syria.

Earlier this month the fleets were rotated, and another squadron with at least five big troop transports was sent out to the region.

"This is absolutely not an evacuation; simply two flights from the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry will bring to Moscow everyone who wishes to go," the independent Interfax news agency quoted an unnamed official in the Russian Embassy in Damascus as saying of Tuesday's airlift.

"First of all, these are the people whose homes have been destroyed and who live in 'conflict hotbeds.' About a hundred people," an embassy source told Interfax on Tuesday.

Looking for signs

The move is being closely read by Western experts for signs that Moscow's long-standing position of support for Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad might be wavering, or that the Russian government anticipates his imminent downfall.

Experts say that, until we see those big transport ships moving in toward Tartus, we shouldn't assume any change in Russia's stance.

"The Russian authorities have already evacuated part of their diplomatic staff. Moscow is getting ready for a possible worsening of the situation and is taking preventive steps," says Vladimir Sotnikov, expert with the Center for International Security at the official Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow.

Experts say Russia has already closed its consulate in Syria's embattled main commercial center, Aleppo, and most Russian companies working in the country have long since withdrawn their own personnel.

"I don't see any change in the Russian position; Moscow has maintained the same stance for the past year and a half.... Assad still has some time, his army is still beating off opposition attacks, although the country is in full scale civil war," Mr. Sotnikov adds.

Who is left?

It's not known exactly how many Russians there are in Syria, but according to the Russian weekly Argumenti i Fakhti, the number is probably at least 40,000.

According to the paper, they include some of the tens of thousands of Syrian students who have studied in Russia since close relations between the two countries began in 1970, who have acquired Russian passports. Thousands of those students have married Russian women over the years and brought them to Syria; no one has an estimate for the number of children, who would also be eligible for evacuation.

Some members of Syria's Christian minority, which enjoys close ties with the Russian Orthodox Church, may also be Russian passport holders, experts say.

While most big countries, including China, have already pulled their citizens out of Syria, Russia has been slow to take action, some experts say.

"Even in the foreign ministry they do not know how many Russians are now in Syria," says Vladimir Sazhin, an analyst with the official Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow.

"Many of them are not registered with the Russian Embassy. Along with their children and other family members we may be looking at several tens of thousands," he says.

"We are seeing only the first stage of evacuation today, and it is happening very late. It is a sign that Russia is losing confidence in the situation being resolved any time in the near future.... But we had to start taking people out of that slaughterhouse much sooner," Mr. Sazhin adds.

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.
Real news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.
What is the Monitor difference? Tackling the tough headlines – with humanity. Listening to sources – with respect. Seeing the story that others are missing by reporting what so often gets overlooked: the values that connect us. That’s Monitor reporting – news that changes how you see the world.

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

QR Code to Start of something big? Russia pulls a hundred citizens from Syria.
Read this article in
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/0122/Start-of-something-big-Russia-pulls-a-hundred-citizens-from-Syria
QR Code to Subscription page
Start your subscription today
https://www.csmonitor.com/subscribe