Colombia is a top cocaine producer, and the FARC makes some $500 million a year from the drug trade, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. The FARC denies involvement in the drug trade. In a Havana press conference Sept. 6, FARC spokesman Marcos Calarcá declared that "we have nothing to do with drug trafficking."
A peace deal will affect drug trafficking, though, says Civico, and the FARC’s transition could aid in dismantling trafficking routes. But the FARC is more divided than it was even a decade ago, and there’s no guarantee all members will follow its leadership toward legitimacy.
Peace for Colombians who have suffered during the recent upswing in guerrilla attacks and over the past five decades is also important. “As soon as the peace process starts, you will see a significant decrease in violence, especially in the countryside,” Civico said in the lead-up to the official announcement of peace talks. Progress, such as a cease-fire, would let the government confront other challenges to peace, such as second-generation paramilitaries. But, Civico warns, “We should not think a peace deal with the FARC will create [automatic] peace in Colombia.”
Colombia has other fundamental problems, like wealth inequality, says Civico. Last year, Santos enacted the Victims and Land Restitution Law, a key step in the peace process.
The potential for a decrease in violence could depend on a cease-fire agreement, however. Santos said the two sides have agreed to negotiate without a cease-fire, a precondition that Santos had previously set for the start of talks. However, the FARC announced it would propose an immediate cease-fire once the negotiations begin. The Santos government is reticent to seek an immediate cease-fire because, in the last attempt at peace talks, the rebels used a suspension of hostilities to build up their forces. In the meantime, Santos told Colombians to brace for even more violence from the guerrillas.
“I ask the Colombian people to hold steady, to have patience and strength in the face of possible new attacks from the FARC or an increase in violence, which will be met with a resounding response by the security forces,” Santos said.
Attorney General Eduardo Montealegre also warned the war could be drawn out even as talks move forward. But, he added, “I would prefer to have [the FARC] serving in Congress rather than kidnapping people and sowing violence across Colombia.”
