In fact, incumbent governors have lost to challengers only 25 times since the 1940s, according to data compiled by the non-partisan Cook Political Report. US Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison was the latest candidate to try and fail when she sought to thwart Texas Gov. Rick Perry in his bid for a third full term.
Not a good market test
Governor Perry used a consistent anti-Washington message against the senator, but the results of the race may not be a great market test of the effectiveness of this strategy in other races.
US Trade Representative Ron Kirk, who served two terms as mayor of Dallas, says there was no big political message in Perry’s 20-point primary victory Tuesday. Tea party favorite Debra Medina took 18 percent of the vote.
Speaking to a Monitor-sponsored lunch for reporters on Wednesday, Kirk said, “I don’t know that we have learned a lot more from the primary. I thought it was fairly inventive of our governor to try to compare what some people would perceive at least [as] the reasonably red state of Texas to an election result in Massachusetts in delivering some greater message.”
But the Cook Political Report notes that Perry’s message may not be easily duplicated in other races. “While it’s unclear how much resonance that message will have, this primary doesn’t seem to be a particularly good test case,” the latest issue of the subscription-based report said.
“While a majority of Texas voters believe that the country is off on the wrong track, polling conducted during the primary showed that a majority think the state is headed in the right direction,” the political newsletter said. “Plus, this primary wasn’t about sending someone new to Washington in the hopes of changing it. It was about who Republicans want to guide Texas through the next four years,”
The publication rates the race between Perry and Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former Houston Mayor Bill White as a tossup.