Severe weather warning from Nebraska to Oklahoma

Severe thunderstorms may develop in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas on Saturday. The forecast includes a risk of large hail, strong winds and several tornadoes.

 Forecasters say the Midwest could be in for another round of strong storms and heavy rain.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center says that severe thunderstorms may develop in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas on Saturday.

The center says there is a risk of large hail, strong winds and several tornadoes with the system.

The greatest chance of severe weather stretches from southern Nebraska to central and western Kansas and Oklahoma.

The Weather Channel reports:

Saturday

  • Where: A more widespread threat of severe thunderstorms in the Plains from central Texas to the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Overnight clusters of t-storms with locally flooding rain appear likely, particularly in the southern Plains.  
  • Threats: Tornadoes, large hail, damaging straight-line winds, flash flooding.

Sunday

  • Where: Scattered severe storms should flare up from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks and perhaps southward into northeastern Texas. 
  • Threats: Damaging straight-line winds, large hail, some tornadoes, flash flooding especially in Oklahoma and northern Texas.

Last weekend's weather caused several tornadoes, flooding and at least four deaths.

As The Christian Science Monitor reports, the US Storm Prediction Center last year modified its language to better communicate the level of risk. The terminology includes using "enhanced" risk of severe thunderstorms, rather than "slight."

At first glance, the changes may seem like an exercise in semantics. And to some extent they are. For several years, the National Weather Service has been working with social scientists to find better ways of communicating the contents of its forecasts in ways meaningful to emergency managers, radio and TV weathercasters, and the general public, not just experienced forecasters, notes John Ferree, the SPC's severe-storms services leader.

But the "slight" category for severe storms and for tornadoes actually spans a threefold increase in risk, from a 5 percent chance of severe weather to a 15 percent chance, he notes. At 15 percent, the risk for severe weather is considered moderate.

Such numbers may sound low, but even a twofold increase "is a big difference," especially if they relate to tornadoes, he says; it means those in an area covered by the larger number are twice as likely to see tornadoes as people covered by the lower probability.

Indeed, once the risk level rises to 15 percent, forecasters are anticipating "a pretty darn big event," Mr. Ferree says.

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.