Ukraine's real power with Russia

The first peace talks in three years showed how much Russia is weakening as Ukraine’s recent progress gives it increasing strength to resist Moscow’s influence.

|
AP
French President Emmanuel Macron, center, arrives with Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, for talks in Paris, Dec. 9.

For all the fear of Russia these days – in election meddling or the rollout of new weapons – its leader, President Vladimir Putin, did not seem so fearsome during his first talks with the new president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. In fact, the power dynamic between them on Tuesday was surprisingly in Ukraine’s favor. Mr. Putin made concessions that would ease the hot conflict in eastern Ukraine. He also pledged to hold talks again in four months.

One reason may be that Mr. Putin is realizing power is more than missiles, cyberwarfare, or targeted assassinations. It also lies in making Russia an attractive place for its young people to work and start families. On that source of power, he is failing as a leader. And perhaps he knows it.

Nearly half of all young Russians under 24 would like to move abroad – a sharp increase from five years ago, according to the latest polls. In addition, real incomes in Russia have declined for six years as pro-democracy protests have increased. The population is also dropping.

In Ukraine, by contrast, wages are rising and, with a revived democracy under Mr. Zelenskiy, migration abroad could be in decline. The country’s reform process was just given a stamp of approval by the International Monetary Fund with a $5.5 billion loan. Despite ongoing battles with oligarchs and a culture of corruption, young people feel some hope. “We fought Russia with nothing [in 2014]; we built an army from scratch,” says Economy Minister Tymofiy Mylovanov. “The only little thing left is to start believing in ourselves.”

These contrasting trends explain why Ukraine is on track to be a full member of the European Union (and perhaps NATO) while Mr. Putin tries any lever of power to stop its neighbor from drifting toward the West and embracing democratic values. The more he overreaches abroad, the more he loses youth at home.

This point is made in a new book, “The Return of the Russian Leviathan,” by Sergei Medvedev, a professor of social science at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. The war in Ukraine and the taking of Crimea in 2014, he writes, are good examples of Russia acting upon its fears and myths of being encircled by enemies. The fears have become self-fulling prophesies.

“Today Russia does not need geopolitical myths that lead us to war and mobilization, but a program of national demobilization and a lowering of the temperature of hatred and confrontation with the West,” he writes. “The Cold War is over; it’s time to build our house and bring up our children, not send them to the slaughterhouse.”

Ukraine is hardly out of Russia’s influence yet. But as its people embrace democratic ideals and equal opportunity to flourish – the ideals of the EU – the more it can win the struggle in its Russian-speaking eastern regions. The power of attraction is greater than the force of arms.

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.
Real news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.
What is the Monitor difference? Tackling the tough headlines – with humanity. Listening to sources – with respect. Seeing the story that others are missing by reporting what so often gets overlooked: the values that connect us. That’s Monitor reporting – news that changes how you see the world.

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

QR Code to Ukraine's real power with Russia
Read this article in
https://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2019/1210/Ukraine-s-real-power-with-Russia
QR Code to Subscription page
Start your subscription today
https://www.csmonitor.com/subscribe