During the campaign, both Obama and Romney have stood by the 2014 deadline for transition in Afghanistan, though Romney has said he would reassess the need for troops based on conditions at the time. Once the election is past, however, the president will need to face the reality that the situation in Afghanistan is declining rapidly. The deadline itself – and statements such as “We will be gone, period” – have encouraged the Taliban, while signaling to the local population they need to accommodate the Taliban in preparation for an American exit.
“Green-on-blue” attacks (Afghan security forces attacking US forces) have shattered trust. The Afghan national security forces do not have the capability to maintain security throughout the country without direct US engagement, and it is unlikely they will have that full capacity by 2014 either. The Afghan national election scheduled for 2014 risks becoming a catalyst for a crisis of governance and fragmentation of the country – precisely at a time when the United States and others will not have the forces in place to keep a lid on upheaval.
A governance and security collapse in Afghanistan would likely bring the Taliban back to power in at least the south of the country, and open up a contest for Kabul and the country as a whole. This would be a catastrophe for human rights, especially women’s rights and children’s education. It would also be a victory for violent Islamist extremists, raise the prospect that Afghanistan could again be a safe harbor for Al Qaeda, and further destabilize Pakistan.
Rather than stick stubbornly to a 2014 deadline and risk losing everything America and coalition forces have fought to achieve in the past 10 years, the president will need to assess the situation and be open to revising the withdrawal plan and timeline. And he’ll need to communicate that commitment to Afghans – and the Taliban.
Many elements of current US policy should continue: a reduced US military footprint, with more support for local security forces; support for good governance, education, women’s rights, and economic development; and help in fighting corruption. More effort needs to go into political reform to give Afghans greater confidence in their leaders. This may mean greater emphasis on local empowerment. Once conditions are stable, a US withdrawal will still be possible, but we can only get there if we drop the idea of a strict deadline.
