Dow 11000: Isn’t it ironic (don’t ya think)?
Dow 11000 comes as the economy weakens – and the weakest industries seem to be doing the best on Wall Street.
What's more ironic, that the Dow just broke and closed above 11,000 on bad jobs news or that everyone forgets we broke above 10,000 for the same reason (the Fed is on hold!)?
Or that we are being told that the Dow is only climbing because of how bad the economy is, yet the two components with the biggest gains year-to-date are both super-cyclicals (Caterpillar up 38% and DuPont up 33%)?
Or how about the fact that the universally agreed-upon weakest sector of the economy is perhaps the strongest sector of the market (Real Estate Investment Trusts up 22% year-to-date)?
Or what of the broad-based nature of what's working? You can't call this rally narrow by a long shot, unlike the commodities chase of Fall 2007 or the tech pile-in of early 2000. According to Zack's Research, there are 21 S&P 500 stocks with gains of more than 40% on the year, we'll call these the leaders. Of these leaders, there is no discernible pattern at all. They are spread out from virtually every sector. Here's a look:
Truck engines, media, insurance, drugs, department stores, chemicals, telecoms - they're all here.
One other bit of irony worth mentioning - perhaps it's not irony but just evidence of a waning conviction - some of the most bearish market commentators have begun shifting their rhetoric. Witness the new "40% chance of a double dip" musings. Or the new-school punditry of differentiating between the stock market and the economy: "We see an anemic recovery but would favor equities over fixed income at this juncture".
When I began this blog I promised myself that I wouldn't quote Alanis Morrisette. Promises are made to be broken. When I consider the state of the market rally, I can only think to myself, "Isn't it ironic, don't ya think?"
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