Keep on hunkering down

With bleak jobs numbers, inflation, and a possible double dip recession, the US still has a ways to go with economic recovery

Jacquelyn Martin / AP
House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, center, and other House Republicans exit a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Friday, June 3, 2011, where they responded to the May unemployment report. Jobs numbers were disappointing, and the US still has financial trouble ahead, writes guest blogger Jeff Cornwall.

As I feared, things are looking bleak on Main Street.

Chief economist for the NFIB William C. Dunkelberg, issued the following statement on May job numbers, based on NFIB's monthly economic survey that will be released on Tuesday, June 7, 2011.

"After solid job gains early in the year, progress has slowed to a trickle. The two NFIB indicators--job openings and hiring plans--that predict the unemployment rate both fell, suggesting that the rate itself will rise.

"May's job numbers will disappoint; meaningful job creation on Main Street has collapsed.

"Twelve percent (seasonally adjusted) of small-business owners reported unfilled job openings (down 2 points). Further indications of minimal future growth include the fact that in the next three months, 13 percent plan to increase employment (down 3 points), and 8 percent plan to reduce their workforce (up 2 points). That yields a seasonally adjusted net negative 1 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, a 3 point loss from April.

"Overall, reports of job reductions have returned to historically normal levels. However, the percent of owners hiring has not recovered to levels historically observed after two years of expansion. With one in four owners still reporting 'weak sales' as their No. 1 business problem, there is little need to add employees, especially with the uncertainty about future labor costs arising from new regulation and legislation. And, if Congress doesn't deal effectively with the trillion dollar deficit, we've got plenty to keep us worried."

Plenty to keep us worried indeed. Remember that almost every past recovery has been led by small business owners.

And we still have to worry about inflation even with a possible double dip recession.....

Keep on hunkering down....This economic morass ain't even close to being over.

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