Which country deserves a higher rating? You pick.

The logic of credit rating agencies is shaky, as illustrated by these two examples:

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Kacper Pempel / Reuters
A cameraman films next to the index at the Warsaw Stock Exchange Aug. 9, 2011. Stock index futures fell sharply on Monday, pointing to further declines in equities, as Standard & Poor's decision to cut the country's top-tier AAA credit rating rattled already jittery investors. How do credit rating agencies decide on countries' ratings?

Which of these two countries best deserve the highest credit rating?

Country number 1, who has a budget deficit of nearly 10% of GDP, a government debt of nearly 100% of GDP, a large current account deficit and 1% growth. Or country number 2 that has a balanced budget, a government debt of 7% (no, the absence of a zero behind the 7 is not a typo) of GDP, a current account surplus and 8% growth.

Most people would probably pick country number 2, but not the credit rating institutes. They give country number 1 (the United States) AAA or AA+ ratings while they give country number 2 (Estonia) AA-, A+ or A1. The way of thinking that gave AAA rating to packages of subprime mortgage backed securities is clearly still alive and well at the credit rating institutes.

Why anyone thinks the opinions of credit rating institutes has any value at all is beyond me.

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