Ticking prime bomb: Fannie Mae's August summary

Foreclosures and 'serious delinquency' remain high, but may be starting their decline.

This chart shows foreclosures and other 'serious delinquencies' on Fannie Mae loans over the past 13 years. The massive run-up of delinquent loans, most visible in 2008 and 2009, may finally be over, as rates continue to decline (note the downward slope for most of 2010). How long will it take till serious delinquencies return to their pre-recession levels?

The Latest release of the Fannie Mae Monthly Summary for August indicated that for data through July, total serious single family delinquency continued to declined.

Although this is a notable development particularly in light of the fact that Fannie Mae’s serious delinquency had been rising for over two years, more data is needed before any conclusions can be drawn as to the trend going forward.

In July, 3.62% of non-credit enhanced loans went seriously delinquent while the level was 11.27% of credit enhanced loans resulting in an overall total single family delinquency of 4.82%.

The following charts (click for larger ultra-dynamic and surf-able chart) show what Fannie Mae terms the count of “Seriously Delinquent” loans as a percentage of all loans on their books.

It’s important to understand that Fannie Mae does NOT segregate foreclosures from delinquent loans when reporting these numbers.

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