Wall Street resolutions for '82
New York — New year's resolutions on Wall Street? Believe it or not, there are nearly as many resolutions as predictions. Here are some of both: Frank Parrish, vice-president for Fidelity Management & Research Company: Resolution: ''I will be more aggressive in acting on my ideas. One of the mistakes I find that I make, and a lot of other people do too, is they have good ideas but they are timid about acting on them.
Mr. Parrish's prediction: ''The consumer will lead the way out of the recession and people will be surprised in the second half of 1982 by how strong consumer goods are. I particularly like building supply outlets and even automobile companies.''
Monte Gordon, director of research, the Dreyfus Corporation: Resolution: ''To buy stocks low and sell them high.'' Prediction: ''In the early months, investors will be in a valley of travail, but then the market will improve.''
William LeFevre, vice-president, Purcell, Graham & Co.: Resolution: ''I'll never vote for a Republican who is closely aligned to California. The three greatest point declines in the Dow have occurred under three Republicans, Hoover , Nixon, and Nixon-Ford.''
Mr. LeFevre's prediction: The market is going to rally. In the second year of a Republican administration, the Dow has moved up on average 13.8 percent. Thus, investors can expect to see the Dow close above 1,000 in 1982.
Larry Wachtel, vice-president for research at Bache Halsey Stuart Shields Inc.: Resolution: ''To never chase the tape. I'll buy stocks when everyone hates them.'' Prediction: Prepare for some aggravation in 1982. The stock market will take a while to digest the poor earnings of the first quarter.
John McCann, branch manager for Shearson/American Express: Resolution: ''I'm not going to invest in any more tips from customers.'' Prediction: The Dow Jones average will probably stay within 75 points of where we are now.
Newton Zinder, analyst, E.F. Hutton & Co.: Resolution: none. Prediction: ''I would be very cautious for the early part of the year. I think the economy is still sinking and there will be some very poor earnings reports and the market has not weathered disappointing earnings.''
Robert Stovall, first vice-president, Dean Witter Reynolds Inc., Resolution: ''To keep the memory green and never forget that in times of declining inflation , cash is king.''
Mr. Stovall's prediction: Once the market is through with its year-end rally phase, it will drop sharply in the first quarter, but improve later in the year. ''This will be a year of paradoxes with the market touching 1,000 not far from when unemployment hits 10 percent.''
Remember when Business Week announced that ''Stocks are dead.'' Now, in its latest issue, in a cover story entitled, ''Investment Outlook for 1982,'' the weekly business publication has decided that the prospects for stocks and bonds aren't so bad any more. The magazine says the financial markets may hold ''fresh potential for patient optimists and nimble pessimists alike.''
The magazine's change of heart has come about because of what it perceives as some improvements in the technical and fundamental underpinnings of the market. For example, it sees some renewed interest by portfolio managers in the blue chip, cyclical stocks, such as the steels, chemicals, and forest products stocks.
Buying in these stocks often precedes a bull market, not a bear market, Business Week contends. And, bargains in these issues abound since they have been out of favor for years. The incoming market leaders, the magazine predicts, will be such companies as Sears Roebuck, which is down 64 percent from its 1974 high, IBM, off 50 percent and Du Pont, off 41 percent.
From a fundamental standpoint, the magazine says, President Reagan has produced a better investment climate, which should induce savings and new capital investment. This will be the year, the magazine concludes, when investors will find out whether or not the President's program will work.
Before the big bull market arrives, Business Week's reporters found many market analysts are expecting a big sell-off in January. A combination of bankruptcies and poor earnings will drive stocks down, analysts prophecy. They may even fall enough to make Business Week's first prediction about the death of stocks come true.
Investors said, ''Bah, humbug,'' to a year-end rally. Tax selling, portfolio switching, concerns about the situation in Poland and fears about the economy and interest rates all combined to hold stock prices down. For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average closed at 873.3, a 2.38 point loss. Trading was light in the holiday shortened week.