The Gallup scorecard

Although predicting the results only a few days before the election is one of the pollster's easier tasks, Gallup's record on presidential elections does give some evidence of the validity of his techniques. The Gallup figures here are from polls taken in early November, except for the 1944 and 1948 elections, where the figures are from mid-October, the latest Gallup poll in those years. Election results are from Congressional Quarterly.

Year Candidates Gallup poll Actual results 1936 Roosevelt/Landon55.7/44.3 60.8/36.5 1940 Roosevelt/Wilkie52/48 54.7/44.8 1944 Roosevelt/Dewey51.5/48.5 53.4/45.9 1948 Truman/Dewey44.5/49.5 49.5/45.1 1952 Eisenhower/Stevenson51/49 55.1/44.4 1956 Eisenhower/Stevenson59.5/40.5 57.4/42 1960 Kennedy/Nixon51/49 49.7/49.6 1964 Johnson/Goldwater64/36 61.1/38.5 1968 Nixon/Humphrey/Wallace43/42/15 43.4/42.7/13.5 1972 Nixon/McGovern62/38 60.7/37.5 1976 Carter/Ford48/49 50.1/48