Gaza cease-fire talks: Egypt, US hopeful a formula has been found

The Middle East is seized by two conflicting moods this week: hope that a flurry of diplomacy has brought a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas within reach, and dread over the consequences should the talks fail.

With parallel talks being conducted in Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar, there is a sense of purpose, urgency, and hope for what is being described by diplomats as a “last best chance” for a Gaza cease-fire and hostage-release agreement.

Diplomats say the two parties have never been closer after weeks of stagnation, yet this positivity is marred by the concern that the alternative, should talks fail, would be a devastating Israeli military offensive into the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where 1.4 million Palestinians are seeking refuge.

The current proposal formulated by Egypt and Israel includes a 40-day sustained cease-fire, Hamas’ release of 33 civilian hostages in return for some 1,500 to 3,000 Palestinian prisoners, and displaced Gazans being allowed by Israel to return to their homes in northern Gaza.

The proposed agreement would also include two key Israeli concessions: withdrawal of forces from the corridor cutting off northern from southern Gaza, and a “sustainable calm” leading to a potential second phase of the cease-fire deal and an end to the war – issues that snagged previous talks. 

On Monday, Egypt said it was “hopeful,” and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the proposal as “extraordinarily generous” for Hamas, urging the militant movement to “decide quickly.”

On Tuesday, Hamas was set to give its official response to the proposal and talks are expected to resume, with Mr. Blinken arriving in Israel.

With Israeli officials telling local media they are giving talks one “last chance,” and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insistent on an assault against Hamas positions in Rafah, Arab diplomats are calling this “the most decisive week of the war.”

Giving the talks additional incentive, Saudi Arabia on Monday reportedly advanced talks with the United States over normalized ties with Israel – long prized by Mr. Netanyahu – in meetings with Secretary Blinken in Riyadh.

According to Arab diplomats with knowledge of the talks, Saudi Arabia is conditioning normalization on an end to the war in Gaza and “tangible, irreversible” steps toward a Palestinian state.

On the sidelines of a World Economic Forum meeting in Riyadh, Sunday and Monday also saw meetings of Arab foreign ministers, American and European diplomats, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to discuss moving forward a postwar plan for Gaza and paths to Palestinian statehood.

Beneath the expressions of optimism is deepening dread across the Middle East about the potential for a Rafah offensive.

Pressure from all sides is building on Israel and Hamas, which have balked before, to reach a deal this week.

Egypt and Qatar are pushing Hamas’ leadership to accept the deal, pointing out the Israeli concessions.

Families of Israeli hostages and their allies are increasing pressure on Mr. Netanyahu, who they believe has not made a deal a priority. They have held protests for the last four nights, galvanized by Hamas’ release of proof-of-life videos of multiple hostages.

Families are pressing the government to avoid a Rafah offensive that they fear may be a death sentence for the remaining hostages, many of whom are thought to be held in Hamas tunnels there.

“Let us finalize the deal that is on the table to bring home the hostages, end the hostilities, agree on a cease-fire, and allow us to celebrate our Israeli Independence Day next month with our loved ones,” Lishay Lavi-Miran, wife of hostage Omri Miran, said in a statement issued Monday by hostage families.

“I want to ask everyone to stop the talking and start the actions. We are losing people that are alive now, and there is no time to waste,” added Elan Siegel, daughter of hostage Keith Siegel.

Meanwhile, in Rafah, hope for a cease-fire deal is limited. Thousands are scrambling to find ways to leave the city ahead of what they believe will be an imminent operation.

Zayed Ibrahim Shaksha, displaced with his family in a tent in Rafah, views the offensive as Israeli leverage that, should talks collapse, may very soon become a reality.

“The reason for a Rafah incursion is to put pressure on the negotiations in order to release the hostages,” he says. “Eventually we all pay the price.”

Ghada Abdulfattah contributed from Rafah, Gaza Strip.