Topic: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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3 reasons why China isn't overtaking the US

Most Americans fear that China will soon surpass the United States in global power and economic clout. But this widespread view is wrong, based on sloppy analysis and outdated conceptions of national power, says Michael Beckley of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. People who believe that China is overtaking the US make at least one of the following three mistakes.
Ideas for a better world in 2011

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Opinion: 'Zero Dark Thirty' has the facts wrong – and that's a problem, not just for the Oscars

The movie 'Zero Dark Thirty' is a gripping drama and credible contender in this year’s Oscar competition – nominated for five Academy Awards. But because it advertises itself as factually grounded, I have to point out: On each of its three major points, the film gets the story wrong.
Editor's Blog The Cuba crisis and the illusion of control

Fifty years ago this week, the world stood on the brink of nuclear war. Looking back, two superpowers had boxed themselves into confrontation. Looking ahead, leaders must avoid that trap again with Iran and other critical issues.
Opinion: 50 years after Cuban missile crisis: closer than you thought to World War III

Fifty years after the Cuban missile crisis, many people find it hard to believe that the confrontation could have pushed the US and Soviet Union to nuclear war. Robert F. Kennedy’s newly released papers remind us why this was the most dangerous moment in recorded history.
Opinion: Iran talks: Why time is ripe for compromise

Positive signals from Iran and the United States are encouraging as talks on Tehran's nuclear program get underway, writes a political expert from Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Opinion: Can Seoul summit tackle biggest threat to US security – nuclear terrorism?

What can President Obama and other world leaders meeting in Seoul, South Korea, for the second Nuclear Security Summit today and tomorrow plausibly accomplish? The answer is less than many observers hope – but more than skeptics appreciate. Look at Ukraine.
Opinion: Putin election victory doesn't pave an easy path through his third presidential term

Beyond mass protests in Moscow against what observers have confirmed as a fraudulent presidential election, several key demographic and economic factors mean that Russians will continue to contest the legitimacy of Putin's presidency during his third term.
Opinion: India's support for Iran threatens its US relationship and global leadership role

India's statement that it will continue to purchase oil from Iran is a major setback for the US attempt to isolate the Iranian government over the nuclear issue. It's also bitterly disappointing news for those of us who have championed a close relationship with India.
3 reasons why China isn't overtaking the US

Most Americans fear that China will soon surpass the United States in global power and economic clout. But this widespread view is wrong, based on sloppy analysis and outdated conceptions of national power, says Michael Beckley of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. People who believe that China is overtaking the US make at least one of the following three mistakes.
Opinion: Obama's 'new' defense goals aren't new – and neither are the flaws in his strategy

The goals of Obama's new defense strategy aren't new: countering terrorism and instability in the Middle East and maintaining access in the Asia Pacific. The news is the change in how the US will accomplish those goals. Can the strategy work? I have my doubts.
An accelerating covert war with Iran: Could it spiral into military action?

The Stuxnet worm and other covert measures appear designed to slow Iran's progress toward a nuclear bomb. But US 'miscalculations' could raise the likelihood of a costly showdown, some experts warn.
Opinion: Christmas gift to America 20 years ago – a Russia to be thankful for

When the Soviet Union collapsed 20 years ago on Christmas, doomsayers had a field day. But seen strictly from the perspective of what matters most to Americans, the good news is that the nightmares that experts realistically expected about Russia have not happened.
How the Iraq war has changed America

A conflict that was supposed to be a quick in-and-out operation lasted nearly nine years – and has left a deep imprint on the policy of American intervention.
Opinion: Beyond Yemen, Awlaki: Look for core Al Qaeda members outside the hot spots

The killing of the American-born Islamic cleric Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen is another success in fighting Al Qaeda. But core leaders of the group who are likely planning the next big attack are probably operating outside the hot spots of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, and the Horn of Africa.
Opinion: After 9/11 anniversary: the return of US diplomacy

The US has relied on the military to hit back when attacked or even threatened; to place first priority on building up defenses; to sometimes shoot first, ask questions later. But the most difficult challenges ahead will require greater reliance on diplomacy and traditional statecraft.
Fukushima meltdown could be template for nuclear terrorism, study says

The Fukushima meltdown showed how some nuclear plants are vulnerable to cooling-system failures. That might be of interest to Al Qaeda, which considered attacking US nuclear facilities after 9/11, a new study says.
Pulling down the bin Laden myth – and brand

It's not always about whose army wins. It's also about whose story wins.
How can Fukushima crisis be rated as severe as Chernobyl?

According to the IAEA's scale, the Fukushima crisis in Japan is now a 7, the most severe rating and equal with Chernobyl. But experts say the scale is deeply flawed.
Radiation exposure: How big is the threat in Japan?

Radiation exposure: Adding to the monumental losses after a Japanese earthquake and tsunami, problems at four nuclear reactors have residents near and far concerned about radiation exposure.
Nuclear reactor crisis: Is radiation a threat to US?

Release of radioactivity from the nuclear-reactor equipment has been limited, so it does not constitute a dire threat to the US yet. But the meltdown situation could quickly change.
Why Obama's bid to prevent loose nuclear weapons is going slowly

President Obama wants to secure loose material for nuclear weapons by 2013. He has made progress, but success depends on countries disclosing sensitive information.
Ideas for a better world in 2011

In many ways, 2010 is a year you may want to relegate to the filing cabinet quickly. It began with a massive earthquake in Haiti and wound down with North Korea once again being an enfant terrible – bizarrely trying to conduct diplomacy through brinkmanship. In between came Toyota recalls and egg scares, pat downs at airports and unyielding unemployment numbers, too little money in the Irish treasury and too many bedbugs in American sheets. Oil gushed from the floor of the Gulf of Mexico for three months, mocking the best intentions of man and technology to stop it, while ash from a volcano in Iceland darkened Europe temporarily as much as its balance sheets. Yet not all was gloomy. The winter Olympics in Canada and the World Cup in South Africa dazzled with their displays of athletic prowess and national pride, becoming hearths around which the world gathered. In Switzerland, the world's largest atom smasher hurled two protons into each other at unfathomable speeds. Then came the year's most poignant moment – the heroic and improbable rescue of 33 miners from the clutches of the Chilean earth. There were many transitions, too – the return of the Republicans in Washington and the Tories in Britain, the scaling back of one war (Iraq) and the escalation of another (Afghanistan), the fall of some powers (Greece) and rise of others (China, Germany, Lady Gaga). To get the new year off to the right start, we decided to ask various thinkers for one idea each to make the world a better place in 2011. We plumbed poets and political figures, physicists and financiers, theologians and novelists. Some of the ideas are provocative, others quixotic. Some you will agree with, others you won't. But in the modest quest to stir a discussion – from academic salons to living rooms to government corridors – we offer these 25 ideas.
A stronger Iran returns to nuclear talks in Geneva

Iran began talks Monday in Geneva with world powers eager to curb its expanded nuclear capabilities.
Opinion: Four reasons the US could get Israel to talk about a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction

It won’t be easy, but without Israel, there can be no meaningful talks on creating a WMD-free zone in the Middle East.
Opinion: Confucius could help relations between US, China

His concept of the "middle way" could help both countries recognize the mutual interests that bond them.
Opinion: To lift the US economy, lift sanctions on America's foes

Profit, not patriotism, keeps companies afloat.