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Philly Will Not Be Exclusively Pro Obama

Kevin Boyle

Posted: 03.19.2008 / 3:29 PM EDT

All eyes on Pennsylvania! All eyes on Philadelphia! Philadelphia is by far the Keystone State’s largest city and with Pennsylvania being called by some “Iowa on steroids”, the City of Brotherly Love will play a pivotal role in deciding the victor in the April 22 Democratic Primary. If Senator Hillary Clinton is to overcome Senator Barack Obama’s current lead among delegates and the popular vote, she will need a decisive statewide victory. Winning Pennsylvania will allow her the ability to build a resume to present to superdelegates that is filled with big state victories. Winning Philadelphia by an extremely large margin will be imperative to Obama’s campaign because his campaign has an established and proven strategy of rolling up big numbers in large urban areas among African Americans and white progressives thus offsetting lower vote totals elsewhere. Obama’s campaign will however find it difficult to achieve a large enough majority out of city to win or keep it close statewide due to well established demographic voting trends in the city of Philadelphia.

More so than states that have already voted like Maryland and Virginia, race is the major determining factor in local elections. I was born and raised in the Olney section of mainly African-American upper North Philadelphia. I now live in Fox Chase in largely white Northeast Philadelphia. While Olney and Fox Chase are less than five miles apart; they are usually polar opposites when votes are being cast between white and African-American Democratic candidates. In the most recent Democratic primary for mayor, current Mayor Michael Nutter who is black prevailed in every majority black ward in the city. At the same time, two white candidates won every majority white ward outside of Center City and leafy Chestnut Hill.

Far from being the exception, the 2007 Mayor’s race is the norm when it comes to race and voting patterns in Philadelphia. Identity politics is so strong that is common to see ethnic candidates prevail in their correspondingly ethnic neighborhoods.

Adding to the contentious nature of Philadelphia Democratic politics is the close demographic balance between white and black communities. The city of Philadelphia is approximiately two-fifths white, and two-fifths black. African-Americans have a larger share in the primary electorate because atleast a quarter of white voters are registered Republican or independent thus under party rules are unable to participate.

These demographic and strongly established voting patterns will prevent Obama from rolling up the numbers he needs out of Philadelphia to prevail or keep it close statewide. There is no disputing the fact that Obama has a proven national track record of appealing to white voters but not the sort of white voter that is most common in Philadelphia. Most Philadelphia whites are blue collar ethnics. This population is centered in Northeast Philadelphia, South Philadelphia, Roxborough, and the river wards. In many ways, these white working class Philadelphians share the classic characteristics of the Reagan Democrat. They are mostly Catholic, disproportionately union, and socially moderate to conservative.

The ongoing controversy regarding Senator Obama’s relationship with Pastor Jeremiah Wright will definitely not aid his appeal among white working class voters in the city. Wedge issues like Section 8 housing and court ordered busing have been used in the past by successful candidates to appeal to working class white voters.

The typical white Obama voter (higher income, college educated) is largely confined to five city wards, keeping in perspective there are 69 Democratic wards in the city. These wards (the 5^th, the 8^th, the 9^th, 15^th and the 27^th) are largely based downtown and all backed Nutter in the Mayor’s race and have backed African American candidates in the past.

Another unique trait of the election in Philadelphia is the ethnic makeup of the Latino community. Nationally we have seen Hillary Clinton perform strong among Latino voters. These Latinos in states like Texas, California, and Nevada have been largely of Mexican-American heritage. Philadelphia’s Latino community however is primarily of Puerto Rican descent. In city elections going back to the 1980s, Puerto Ricans in Philadelphia have largely backed African American over white candidates. This trend will be to the benefit of Obama. The Latino community is largely based in North Philadelphia, centered in the 7^th, 19^th, 42^nd, and 43^rd wards and make up nearly 10% of the city.

While Obama will do well among Philadelphia Latinos, African-Americans, and white progressives, he will be hard pressed to exceed 60% in the city thus insuring a large Clinton victory statewide. Pennsylvania’s result will guarantee the fight for the nomination continues to North Carolina and Indiana on May 6^th.