Oregon’s Quiet Primary
Kip Ward
Posted: 05.05.2008 / 6:52 PM EDT
Everywhere you turn the big talk is Indiana and North Carolina. I guess we will see how it turns out tomorrow night. Then it’s off to Nebraska and Virginia right? Well, maybe. Don’t forget in Oregon we vote by mail. That’s right, most of us got our ballots in the mail yesterday, and by the end of the week about a third of us will have already voted. And by the week after that it, it may have not been all said, but it will pretty much be all done.
Both Barack and Hillary have to know that Oregon’s pool of voters is actually a sieve. And the voters (votes) start draining out about three weeks before the actual primary date. Interestingly enough, I haven’t seen many (OK any) campaign ads. Bill was in Oregon about a week ago and even came to the coast. I can’t remember exactly where all he stopped (not here though, I’d remember that.) And what about Barack’s group? They were hustling around like crazy trying to register new voters. From my vantage point, I think that both candidates had better get cracking if they want to have much of an impact on the final outcome.
So how is it going to go in Lincoln County? Here is my prediction. I think Hillary has the edge with the retirement age people. They make up about a quarter of the population and they almost all vote. I’ve also noticed some people that started out for Hillary and then shifted to Barack have now shifted back to Hillary. This group does not support the war, and inflation is beginning to matter to them since it eats away at their fixed incomes.
The younger to middle aged voters seem pretty well weighted towards Barack. But the younger voters are less apt to vote. I think Barack will do very well with this group. They tend to be environmentalists and anti-war. However, there is one small note worth mentioning. Back in the 90’s Bill came to Oregon to establish the NW Forest Plan. Rightly or wrongly Bill has been given a lot of credit for protecting Oregon forests and salmon stocks. Hillary has pledged to protect our old growth forests. The last I heard Barack has not. This could cost him with the environmentalists if Hillary is able to make an issue of it. When reminded, most Oregonians have very good memories of Bill and the environment.
By the way, this business of Bill Clinton being a detriment to Hillary’s campaign; I’m not seeing it in the least. The word around the campfire is very positive. The press may not like him, but a lot of voters sure seem to. Hillary’s strategy of sending him to the front lines seems to be having a positive effect.
So where do Lincoln County’s voters seem to be leaning in the first week of Oregon’s primary elections? It’s tough to call, but Barack still certainly seems ahead. Hillary is definitely gaining, but she needs to “punch it” while there is still time to have her punches count.
