I write often about Obama and Appalachia. As many of you know, Obama was crushed in the primaries in Appalachian parts of WV, KY, VA, OH, TN, and PA. I argue the following things as a baseline in how the campaign should think about Appalachia and what they could do to improve. I'd love to hear your thoughts on them, even if you tell me I'm full of it:
1. The swing states of VA, OH, PA, and WV hinge on a strong Democratic performance in the Appalachian region of that state. (The same could be said for TN, NC, and KY - not currently considered swing states.)
2. Obama obviously got crushed in Appalachia, but these numbers were similar to places with similar demographics across the country, particularly in places with between 6 and 17% black populations.
3. As Appalachia goes, so goes the Presidency. Central Appalachian states have gone in a block for every winning candidate since 72.
4. Obama could dramatically improve his standing in Appalachia by engaging Appalachian voters, pledging to address endemic Appalachian poverty by ending mountaintop removal and strip mining and putting people back to work by investing in clean energy and alternative industry.
Also, which of the community types in Appalachia are "swingable" or competitive for a Democrat, particularly Obama assuming he's the nominee?
peace,
faithfull
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