The elderly edge in political activism
James Gimpel
Posted: 07.25.2008 / 7:30 AM EDT
The generation gap that divided the Democratic Party during the primary has persisted into the summer and certainly exists among the Patchwork Nation’s visitors, according to our latest survey analysis.
The generational differences defy a simple red-versus-blue characterization. Regardless of age, large majorities of site visitors report Democratic Party preference and intend to vote for Barack Obama.
They are more divided generationally, though, in terms of their income, political conservatism, religious confession and religiosity, geographic mobility, and level of political activism.
We would expect the elderly electorate to have some of these advantages. They have had more time to earn and save money, for instance.
But because of their longer lifespan, they have also had more opportunities to involve themselves in politics; learn the political ropes; and develop habits of voting, contributing, and volunteering. Because they are settled, they have acquired a stake in their communities, also a spur to greater activism. If they are retired or working only part time, they often have more time for political involvement than those hustling to begin their adult lives.
These advantages add up to one important fact: Those over age 65 will turn out in far higher percentages in November than those under 30. They will also have a far greater presence among campaign donors and, in many places, among volunteers. Given that the population over age 65 is an exceptionally large age cohort, retirement-age voters will be more highly influential on the election result than the young will be.
Finally, and maybe most important, because of their more conservative tilt and their religiosity, they fit less easily into Senator Obama’s brand of secular liberal Democratic politics. After all, these were supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton during the Democratic primaries.
Viewed through the lens of the Patchwork Nation categories, respondents have come largely from the nation’s wealthy suburban counties, “Monied ’Burbs” (37 percent), and from its rapidly growing and diversifying counties, “Boom Towns” (19 percent). Ten percent have reported in from counties with higher numbers of evangelical adherents, “Evangelical Epicenters” and 7.5 percent each from counties heavy with with colleges or younger voters, “Campus and Careers” and the homes of the nation’s big diverse cities, “Industrial Metropolis.”
Counties with high minority populations, “Minority Central” and counties with high numbers of service workers “Service Worker Centers” tally about 4 percent each, with the remaining categories (“Tractor Country,” “Immigration Nation,” “Emptying Nests,” and “Military Bastions”) coming in at 3 percent or less.
Among the respondents, little has changed from the results we reported in June, although the Democratic dominance has diminished. The new percentages are 55 percent Democratic; 19 percent Republican; and 25 percent Independent.
In an earlier post, Patchwork Nation examined how crossover voters are fewer than many want to believe, and most Americans cast their vote according to their party identification or leaning. But there are some voters who are “cross-pressured,” in that they vote for a party but are uneasy about it for some reason. They feel contrary political impulses – tugs on their loyalty; perhaps they increasingly feel out of step with the dominant currents in national politics.
Candidates’ images also come into play, as Obama and John McCain come from very different generations themselves. The upshot is that cross-pressured voters are potentially good pickings for the rival party.
Given the certainty of seniors’ participation in the November election, Senator McCain’s support among elderly Democrats and independents could easily make up for the much touted younger legions who typically participate at only half the rate of their grandparents.
July 27th, 2008 at 3:16 pm EDT
If they make up an more interested group, why is it that they would consider voting for someone, like Sen. McCain when he says he is open to raising the taxes on Social Security recipients?
July 27th, 2008 at 5:00 pm EDT
Maybe they feel like the astronomically wealthy Warren Buffett, who says he doesn’t mind paying “his fair share” in taxes and is an Obama supporter, or Rob Reiner or any of a number of people with money to burn. Maybe “interest” indicates that they’ve studied the issues, and see Obama as merely a nice-looking young politician with some growing to do.
Perhaps they don’t like Obama’s answer to Charles Gibson in the spring debate. When told that when tax rates are lowered, more money comes into the Treasury and so raising taxes on upper middle incomes and the wealthy is actually a bad idea for padding our coffers, Obama said it didn’t matter — they should still pay more. Presumably, it’s more important to punish evil, job-creating, business-building, law-biding citizens than to actually have money to pay for his hundreds of billions of dollars in projected new spending.
He looks like a nice guy, but we can’t afford him.
July 28th, 2008 at 2:17 am EDT
Having just turned 58yo, it was dishearten to read the effects of aging is worse than I previously believed. I knew cognitivity diminishes with age but did not realize political acuity is the first thing to go. However the article is wake-up call for me. I will immediately begin planning for the day when I may do something stupid, like, vote Republican.
July 29th, 2008 at 1:09 pm EDT
Too many unsubstantiated assumptions in this blog. I am 61 yrs old. I crossed over and registered as a Republican last fall and campaigned for Mitt Romney. I will vote for McCain and hopefully ‘young’ SARAH PALIN or Mitt for VP. I am a pro-life feminest who sees abortion, physician assisted suicide, embryionic stem cell research and human cloning as the biggest threats to our social order that far offset what SSN taxes would do for me. Perhaps it is the notion of thinking beyond ourselves and our immediate personal interests. My faith is first and foremost as a driving force in all my thinking. Barack Obama has expressed total opposition to everything important to me. He advocated for INFANTICDE. He talks about family values yet he opposes voter initiatives to make law allowing parents to know there 14 year old in leaving the state with an adult to have an abortion! He opposes voter initiatives to amend the CA State Constitution to define marriage as between one man and one woman. His So Chicago politics where is learned his liberation theology and radical Marxist social agenda do raise flags for me. He talks down to Americans and reveres Europeans so much that rather than American leading Europe back to greatness he would let Europe lead America into the moral and social cesspool it currently is swimming in. His total lack of credentials in any leadership capacity shows his audacity of conceit in thinking himself fit to hold the highest civil office in the world. Let him run on a Hamus ticket and see how far he can go.
Vote McCain/PALIN 2008
Vote PALIN/Jindal 2012
September 2nd, 2008 at 7:09 pm EDT
To Mary Mccurry,
You have no faith, because what another female do with her body is not your concern. God said, “Judge not or you will be judged”. It is God that is the Judge of his people not you and others. John McCain is too old to lead this country and Palin has no experience at all!!! She can not take care of her own household so how will she be able to lead the people!!! I am a child of God and do no believe in same sex marriage but is that going to stop people for being gay????? No! and they are also God children no matter what!
Vote for a change, are we not tired of the same oh - same oh!!!!
P.S.
do not bother to reply, because I was just passing through!!