Obama campaigning on McCain’s turf
Dante Chinni
Posted: 07.11.2008 / 6:23 AM EDT
Looking at the recent travels of Senators John McCain and Barack Obama a couple clear trends emerge – both positive for the Illinois senator. In terms of both geography and community types Senator Obama seems to be mapping fairly aggressive agenda.
If the 2008 campaign were a football game, the latest action would mostly be on Senator McCain’s half of the field. Battleground states that voted Republican in 2004 have been at the top of Senator Obama’s travel itinerary.
Thirteen of his 23 stops have been in solid “red states” since June 20, when Patchwork Nation last analyzed the travel schedules of the two candidates. The Illinois senator has made two stops in Florida, two in Georgia, and three in Missouri – all states considered competitive this fall. He’s made single stops in the battlegrounds of Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. Obama has also reached into some places where he wouldn’t be expected to show up at all – North Dakota and Montana.
Playing on the other guy’s turf isn’t unheard-of in July of an election year. The point of such a game plan: to spread the candidate and his message out as much as possible while the election is still months away.
As Obama strides into Republican territory, however, his Republican rival has not been as eager to follow suit.
Of Senator McCain’s 18 campaign stops since June 20, four were in Ohio, two were in Nevada, one was in Colorado, and one was in Indiana – all of which President Bush carried in 2004. Unlike Obama, McCain has visited only two states considered a battleground in 2008 that went Democratic in 2004, Michigan, which he visited yesterday, and Pennsylvania. For sure, he has been pushing hard in the Keystone State – logging four trips since mid-June. At the same time, there were no trips to Wisconsin and just one to Michgian, Democratic battlegrounds that some political observers say are ripe for McCain.Instead, McCain visited California three times, even though the state isn’t expected to be in play this fall.
When looking through the lens of Patchwork Nation, one can see a clear focus on rapidly growing and diversifying counties (“Boom Towns”). They rank second to the nation’s big cities (“Industrial Metropolis”), which remain the best places for scoring free media coverage and contributions.
Since June 20, McCain has stopped in six “Boom Towns,” while Obama has hit four.These battleground counties should be fertile territory for McCain, as Patchwork Nation has noted previously. “Boom Towns” swung from Democratic in the 2000 presidential race to Republican in 2004 and are wealthier than most of the 11 community types. The fact that Obama is reaching out to these parts means that his camp sees opportunity, too.
Obama’s message of change may have particular resonance in America’s “Boom Towns.” The current mortgage crisis has hit these counties (like Clark County Nevada) particularly hard as the bills for all the growth and building of the early 21st century come due and the adjustable rates on mortgages kick in.
Of course, this latest batch of campaign stops for the candidates isn’t definitive. The McCain campaign is retooling itself. And the pattern could change with a good 3-1/2 months of campaigning before the vote – not to mention the vice-presidential selections, conventions, and debates.
But overall, the recent trends in candidate travel indicate an Obama campaign that is well funded and feeling confident, aiming to broaden the number and kind of places in play. The McCain campaign, meanwhile, is taking a more cautious tack, hewing closer to past electoral trends and perhaps looking to shore up areas it needs for victory.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:52 am EDT
The map colors are too similar to each other. Tough to find, say “Monied ‘Burbs”, when the colors are so similar and the legend for each category (below the map) is toned in fading shades that confuse it further. Also, do you know that ~10% of men have some degree of color perception impairment? Usually red-green. Interesting data, but poorly presented.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:57 am EDT
When using “find your community” by zipcode, 06105 (central Hartford CT) comes up as monied burbs, described in part as “Wealthier and slightly younger than America as a whole.” This is decidedly not the case.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:05 am EDT
Sorry about the colors… unfortunately when you are dealing with 11 colors things get a bit tricky.
As for the Hartford, this issue has come up in a few places. The categorization is for counties (that’s the data we have) not cities or Census tracts. So it’s possible you live in a place that does not match your county.
We thought about trying to take the analysis down another level, but did not have the time or resources do to so. So you may not fit your county, but overall Hartford County is wealthy. Remember it also contains Granby, Avon, Bristol and a host of other wealthy places….
We put the survey on the site — immediately after the ZIP code match — so you could see how well you match the place you live.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:17 am EDT
By clicking on the community type buttons below the map, you will be able to toggle them individually.
Very interesting map.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:38 am EDT
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=28
Check out the map on the above link. You can click on a state, which shows different colors by areas of the state. There is a link to a 2004 map to compare, which is very interesting.
Arizona - McCain’s home - is looking possible for Obama.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:49 am EDT
I’ve seen 5 or 6 Obama ads in virginia so far in the past 2 weeks. I’ve seen zero McCain ads. I’m currently residing in Roanoke VA, and saw these on local television stations down here. Seems Obama’s trying to break into the part of virginia that’s big on republicans (Not Northern Virginia or Richmond).
July 11th, 2008 at 12:16 pm EDT
Obama is taking his campaign seriously and is creating a strategy that beats the war veteran’s, which goes to say a lot. He’s a better planner, a visionary and a calculating strategist who can smoothly run something as chaotic as a political campaign organization. Obama has my support. Please help us have him elected, visit WhyObama08.org!!
July 11th, 2008 at 12:26 pm EDT
We need Barack Obama as President. Just look at our failing economy. McCain will give up for years of the same, same as Bush. We need help in this country. I will keep donating to Barack Obama eventhough my savings are dwindling fast. Barack for President.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:29 pm EDT
We need Barack Obama as President. Just look at our failing economy. McCain will give us four more years of the same, same as Bush. We need help in this country. I will keep donating to Barack Obama, eventhough my savings are dwindling fast. Barack for President. I am so stressed out because of everything that I made grammar and spelling mistakes. We must help Barack become the President.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:14 pm EDT
WE NEED SEN. OBAMA AS PRESIDENT NOW BECAUSE THINGS ARE SO BAD. WE CANN’T TRUST SEN. MCCAIN BECAUSE HE AND HIS FELLOW REPUBLICANS HAS CAUSE THESE TROUBLE BY THEIR POLICIES. SO ALL DEMOCRATS NEED TO WORK TOGETHER AND STAY FOCUS. I WILL KEEP DONATING TO SEN. OBAMA EVENTHOUGH TIMES ARE HARD, BECAUSE I BELIEVE HE WILL MAKE A CHANGE WITH OUR HELP.
July 11th, 2008 at 4:31 pm EDT
[…] Obama Has McCain Playing Defense. Obama has been campaigning on McCain?s turf (states Bush won in 2004) and McCain has also been…. […]
July 12th, 2008 at 1:42 pm EDT
When I heard McCain’s “Campaign Co-Chair” former Senator Phil Gramm explain that the American people have become “A nation of whiners” it brought to mind President Bush commenting at a campaign event about how wonderful it was that a mother was working three jobs. Wonderful? Or given the low minimum wage and high costs of essential goods, an absolute and overwhelming necessity. All I could think of when I heard Gramm speak was to wonder how many homes he has. My guess is three. A home in Texas, an apartment in DC and a vacation home somewhere. Oh, and a nice job as a Vice President of UBS, that being the United Bank of Switzerland. Nothing to whine about there, right? So what are all the other Americans belly-aching about? Heck, they could go out and get a job at UBS if they really wanted to, so it’s time for them to suck it up and run for the Senate so they can get those good connections.
And this oaf is McCain’s chief economic advisor? He thinks the cost of living is all in our minds? I love that he is so well-off that the cost of daily expenses don’t even penetrate the golden bubble of his lifestyle. Oh, wait, John McCain has SEVEN homes. And a far higher net worth and income. In touch with the lifestyles of the average American? Nooo, not really. Not really at all. The American people are going to have to choose. Someone who understands, or someone who has not a clue. Take your time…
July 13th, 2008 at 12:20 am EDT
This is the saddest slate of candidates since Ford/Carter in ‘76. A “community organizer” (what does that mean? little league coach? park clean-up? political machine *****?) with no backbone or experience and a 20-year senator who’s as dumb as a box of rocks. How did this happen? We’re in SO much trouble…
July 14th, 2008 at 11:45 am EDT
I like the fact that neither candidate is conceeding swathes of the country to the other. I like the fact they each seem to be willing to campaign in every state. I don’t like the fact that neither of them will deal frankly with the problems we have in the country. Promises are freely given but no attempt is made to say what they think the federal government should do or what their priorities are amoung these activities. Nor do them ever say what they will do when the money runs out after priority twenty, for example. Do they propose cutting programs 21 thru what ever? Can’t do that since most major programs have major constituancies. More revenue … ? Can’t do that. So we just keep borrowing.
And by the way, to ‘hecowe’ and others who whine about Obama’s experience; exactly what experinces prepare you to be president of the United States? Obama is an intelligent individual and a quick study. He or McCain will perform adequately as president. Remember, the United States presidency is a constitutionally weak office. Everything depends on the ability for intelligent conciliation and compromise. These are the qualities we should be looking for along with the ability to listen and learn.