McCain’s core voters and his elusive ones
Dante Chinni
Posted: 06.30.2008 / 10:57 AM EDT
Washington – For the Republicans, the primary season wound up being more of a sprint than a marathon. Sen. John McCain’s last well-financed challenger, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, dropped out of the campaign on Feb. 7, leaving the GOP nomination fight all but settled.
Yet, most of Senator McCain’s wins were not overwhelming after that point. Only in two primaries did McCain receive more than 80 percent of the vote. In that time, he also lost a few contests to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
Analyzing the results through Patchwork Nation’s 11 types of communities shows where McCain’s strongholds and weak spots lie, even if the tallies in the primaries cannot predict how the general election will turn out.
In the most basic measure, McCain was the runaway winner of the primaries, capturing more than 9.8 million votes, more than twice as many votes as his nearest challenger, Mr. Romney. But those votes are not more than 50 percent of all those cast. That means McCain was not the first choice of more than half of the GOP primary voters though he had just about wrapped up the nomination in early February.
That weakness pops up in Patchwork Nation’s community types. McCain captured more than 50 percent of the vote in just three community types: places with aging populations (“Emptying Nests”), places with high concentrations of Hispanics (“Immigration Nation”), and farming communities (“Tractor Country”).
The upside for McCain is that people in two of those community types – “Emptying Nests” and “Tractor Country” – vote reliably Republican in general elections. He needs residents in both places to turn out in November and, overall, he was the first choice for the majority of them.
The downside for Team McCain is that he did not perform all that well with another reliable part of the Republican base, communities with large numbers of evangelical adherents (“Evangelical Epicenters”). In fact, in those counties the votes for Romney and Mr. Huckabee added together outnumber votes for McCain.McCain’s problems connecting with Christian Evangelicals have been noted by Patchwork Nation.
Many residents in Nixa, Mo., (“Evangelical Epicenters”) say they are not fans of the Arizona senator. The mayor of the small satellite city of Springfield, Mo., has said he plans to stay home on Election Day rather than vote for McCain.
These places also haven’t drawn much attention from McCain, according to Patchwork Nation’s coverage of the candidates’ travel schedules. As of last weekend, he has visited seven “Evangelical Epicenters” – about 4 percent of his total trips since Feb 1.
Those evangelical communities make up large parts of crucial states, such as Missouri, Colorado, and even Georgia, where the inclusion of Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, a former GOP congressman, could alter the vote.
McCain’s primary showings were also weak in the three community types that look to be battlegrounds in 2008: the nation’s wealthy suburban counties (“Monied ’Burbs”), rapidly growing and diversifying places (“Boom Towns”), and rural locales built around service sector economies (“Service Worker Centers”).
But in all those different types of communities McCain was far enough ahead to beat out the combined totals of Romney and Huckabee. Although, he didn’t break 50 percent in those places, he had a good showing, which may be a boost in November.
Ultimately, based on the primary results for both McCain and Sen. Barack Obama (who Patchwork Nation covered last week), it looks as if the “Monied ’Burbs,” which hold large numbers of voters, and the “Boom Towns” will be the places where the candidates duke it out for votes – hoping to tip states their way.
This is key territory for McCain, in particular. Unless he can lock up the traditional Republican base, the Arizona senator will need to rely on performing well in those battleground community types that have a track record of splitting their vote between the parties and appear likely to do so again this year.
NOTE: Patchwork Nation will be on a reduced schedule for this week, the week of July fourth, with only two new posts. We will be back on a regular schedule next week. Have a good holiday.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:45 am EDT
Dear American Voters, reporters, media. professionals, political parties, and presidential Nominees,
Subject: Presidential Temperament
Please talk about and “Compare And Contrast” the ” Presidential Temperament” of our Presidential presumptive nominees. I will also request and plead to the nominees themselves [ Hon. Senator McCain and Obama ].
Our nation has been applying this yard and stick tor the appointments and confirmation process of our Supreme Court Justices nominees.
Our Greatgrand Nation Foundations are as under:
Family, friends, fellows, faith, funds, fun, with fairness & freedom And without fear, favor, and failure.
It will be disgrace and shameful if the nominees and media will not look into this critical and crucial aspect under current challenging times and circumstances within our country and all around the Globe.
America wake up and the discuss the ” Presidential Temperament” of our presumptive presidential nominee’s [ Hon. Senator McCain and Obama].
Yours sincerely,
COL. A.M.Khajawall [Ret].
Disabled American Veteran
Forensic psychiatrist, Las Vegas, Nevada.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:46 pm EDT
Obama already promised he would give the millions of illegal aliens , squatting in this nation AMNESTY? McCain will do likewise to get the vote in November. We must pass the SAVE ACT before this happens. Afterwards will be too late for overburdened taxpayers, who will have to support them. Plus the millions more who will think it’s ‘open day’ from the third world countries.
If it’s something to do with enforcing our immigration laws, the special interest lobby will crawl out of the sewer to stop its enactment. Just like the SAVE ACT (H.R.4088) a Federal bill, the laggard Democrats don’t want voted into law. Corruption has manifested itself, as house Speaker Nancy Pelosi has used intimidation to stop her clan from endorsing this legislation. Ice has a free Tipline: 1-866-DHS-2ICE for intelligence to locate illegal aliens, or predatory businesses that employ them.
Predatory employers would be arrested, fined and possibly imprisoned and millions of illegal aliens would leave of their own accord. It would give (ICE) more funding and build the US border patrol up to 20.000 more agents in strength, build the fence as originally intended. This national law would also begin to remove criminal aliens from our society. It would give extra teeth to all immigration laws now on the books. Demand the SAVE ACT! (2022243121 ) Unsuppressed details at NUMBERSUSA.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:54 pm EDT
June 29, 2008
I’m a 50 year old, Conservative, Catholic, Husband, Father & Grand-Father, independent Truck Driver from Michigan.
I am a Christian with deep traditional values, but do reject the label “born-again evangelical” that has been placed upon “all” of Mike Huckabee’s supporters. We are not all in a neat little box, but from varied beliefs, and many occupations and backgrounds. The one thing we have in common is finding a true conservative voice in Mike Huckabee, who is a man of integrity, character, and someone we can TRUST. All characteristics that are uncommon in politics. There is no “typical” Mike Huckabee
supporter. Almost all of “us” have never been involved in politics before or enthusiastically supported a candidate until this election process.
Ronald Reagan was the 1st President I voted for, twice. George H.W. & W. Bush, each got my vote, 4 times.
I would like to offer to you some real world, street perspective, as I see things… as I criss-cross America and Canada in my work as an Owner-Operator.
First, freight is down and has been declining in the last two years. Even with diesel fuel going through the roof, shippers are still shopping around to get the lowest shipping costs for the products. We truckers, have not had a “raise” in the past 10 years, but are asked to lower are charges, every day!
I stay out 3-4 weeks at a time, leaving my family, my church and my own bed, just to make my payments. After fuel, insurances, truck payment, maintenance on the truck…I have no money left over for savings, donations or even Christmas presents for my grandchildren. My wife cried at Christmas 07…It made me feel horrible, the worst I’ve felt as the provider to my family, since 1984!
We need to change the economy, homeland security, energy and tax policies in our country, or we will experience another Great Depression!
Barack Obama will surely not make the necessary changes that our country needs, and will lead us directly into that depression.
Therefore, John McCain must be elected as our next President, period!
So, to make that happen, Mike Huckabee would be, in my humble opinion, Sen. McCain’s best VP pick.
I would ask that Sen. McCain employ Gov. Huckabee to work with the Congress and Senate, like he did with the Democrats in Arkansas…to shut down the IRS, and implement the “Fair Tax” system.
Our economy would turn around…within months. The Stock market would go crazy, corporations and the jobs they create would flock to the USA, offshore monies would come back to our Country, jobs would be created and due to the competition for skilled workers, wages and benefits would increase. Un-insured people would be able to get a good paying job with health insurance.
Secondly, Mike Huckabee’s Secure America Plan was the only reason Jim Gilchrist of the Minuteman Project, endorsed and supported Gov. Huckabee for President.
We true Conservatives, want the border shut down and closed!!!
We do not want Sen. McCain’s comprehensive approach to illegal immigration and amnesty for those illegally here in our Country.
Sen. McCain could ask Gov. Huckabee to implement his Secure America Plan by working with Homeland Security, the Border Patrol, and grassroot citizens to “watch” the new security cameras on the border via the Internet and help secure our borders.
Getting the illegal workers that are getting paid cash…under the table, registered and paying into our treasury via the “Fair Tax”, which they are not currently doing (I know this for a fact because I have asked them on the loading docks I bump every day in my work) would generate huge revenue to our Country.
Sen. McCain could then put to use his vast experience to deal with the Middle East, oil production there and here in our Country. He could focus on alternative fuels and energy systems.
Sen. McCain could create a true and final peace that would stabilize energy prices and reverse the bad feelings and impressions most of the Middle East has toward our Country.
Also, he could veto every earmarked, pork-spending bill that Congress sends to his desk!
I think the only reason Sen. McCain didn’t support W.’s tax cuts, was because they didn’t contain the necessary spending cuts John thought were necessary to reduce our deficit that we are going to be passing on to our children and grandchildren.
President McCain could be the Maverick Republican he has always been and implement radical changes in the way our Country does things!
With his Navy experience he could turn this ship completely around and get it going in the right direction, for the first time since our founding Fathers invented this wonderful experiment.
By picking Gov. Huckabee as his VP, he would excite and bring our donations and grass root support from the entire Army of us true Conservatives, (who have compassion for the working class) and Iowa and the entire South, i.e. the states Mike Huckabee won in the primaries.
Along with the religious evangelicals and Catholics that believe in everything Sen. McCain and Gov. Huckabee support regarding abortion, marriage and family values.
Sen. McCain and Gov. Huckabee could make the GOP the real Grand Old Party it once was under Ronald Reagan, but on 110 octane ethanol enriched racing fuel!!!
We must change these things in order to win this November and take our Country in a new direction!
Sincerely and respectfully submitted,
Randy Bishop
A Truck Driver from Michigan
ttrandybishop@gmail.com
June 30th, 2008 at 2:57 pm EDT
McCain/Huckabee would be a huge win in November!
➢ Proven, tested, unchanged stands/records on Tax Reform, Fiscal Responsibility, Social/Traditional Family Issues, National Security/Immigration (secure the Border first), and both have conservative Democrat and limited Government allies to reach across the aisle outside the GOP.
➢ Vetted, trusted, proven integrity and character, and would appoint conservative JUDGES who would not legislate from the bench, and undermine the people and the traditional values this country was founded upon. “I will never sacrifice principles for anybody’s politics.”—Gov. Huckabee No surprises or “skeletons” in these closets to bring the country and the office of the President of the United States disrespect.
➢ Respect/Like each other!
McCain: “Governor Huckabee got millions of votes from people across this country when he ran for President. He reached out to people. I am very grateful to have him with me as a role model.” (Little Rock, AR, 4-25-08)
Huckabee: “One of the reasons I am supporting McCain is I admire him for understanding how government works and not giving more power to the government, but to the people.”
McCain: “We will be careful stewards of your tax money, as Gov. Huckabee was when he was Governor of Arkansas.” (Little Rock, AR, 4-25-08)
Huckabee: “We ran the most civil campaigns in the entire Republican primary.”
(Little Rock, AR, 4-25-08)
“When I think about the leadership our country needs, there’s no doubt in my mind it needs Sen. McCain.” (Greensboro, NC, 6-8-08)
Why Gov. Mike Huckabee for VP?
• Strong, unwaivering record on social issues, fiscal responsibility, tax reform as Governor, huge evangelical, southern states support
• Still has 65% approval rating in AK, and got millions of votes from supporters during presidential primaries, including 65% African-American vote
• Since 1976, there have been five states who have voted for the General Election winner every time in all of the eight elections since then. The states are: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, and Ohio. This year, in all of these states, Gov. Huckabee either won them or came in second to McCain.
• Reaches across party lines with his likeability and character
• Likability, personable, and earned the title, “The Great Communicator” says Ed Rollins, Campaign Mgr.
• Would bring a huge, still-active Army of grassroots supporters to ENERGIZE the Republican Party and rally for the McCain ticket!
REAL CHANGE Republicans with REAL ANSWERS in solving the Problems we face in this country!
June 30th, 2008 at 10:02 pm EDT
This article gives excellent reasons for John McCain to pick Mike Huckabee as his running mate.
July 1st, 2008 at 9:06 am EDT
MITT PHONEY is the worst pick mccain can make. he will surely lose if he picks him. Mitt brings nothing to the table and is far a conservative in every way. the company bain that he founded was just trying to procure a backdoor under the table deal with the goverment that would severly compromise our security. He is no economic genius, look at the economy of Mass..Is is going bankrupt with that hillary style mandated health care coverage, i can see a swift boat comming now of people that had to leave the city b/c they could not afford the fees that mr FEE FEE increased… Mike Huckabee is the only sound choice that can be made here.. If the repubs want to even have a shot at keeping the white house they had beeter pull huckabee out from under that bus they thru him under and put him on the ticket. As a african american, I will not be voting for obamanation, and as a true evangelical conservative, if MITT PHONEY is on the tick, i will not be voting at all… Mike Huckabee has more experience, victories under his belt than romney and just b/c he is not a millionaire does not make it ok to chose someone based on who they want… I feel like the repubs are throwing me under the bus as if i do not count or they know whats best for me…They can play that game if they want to and try to force romney down our throats if they want to, then they had better get ready to call President Obamanation, cause i really am not tooo happy voting for mccain, but if huckabee is on the ticket then i could at least stomach it. But with Romney, to liberals that have a history of pushing policies that moon conservative principles in every way, i will not be willing to waste my time… Obamanation already has the upper hand and is energizing his base meanwhile mccain is just assuming that his will be in tack…remember that assumptions is the mother of all f_ckups!
July 1st, 2008 at 9:07 am EDT
McCain and Huckabee have three things in common: wrong experience, wrong judgment, wrong temperament. Spells “Don’t vote for these Twits !”
July 1st, 2008 at 10:18 am EDT
Your characterization of Jackson County, NC as an “evangelical epicenter” is not accurate. Although I certainly applaud your efforts at mixing sociology with political demographics, arbitrary boundaries, such as counties, precincts and other governmental subdivisions are not useful for campaign planning.
Groupings of voters can be defined geographically, although not on the basis of arbitrary governmental divisions. What I call a “demographic swath” can be delineated from common voter psychological characteristics. Moreover, these characteristics can be ussed to differentiate Republican from Democratic voters. Thus, the Republicans in a particular “demographic swath” will share common psychological characteristics, where the Democrats will share different ones. Those will likely be entirely diffrent from characteristics of Republicans and Democratics in a different “swath.”
These voter “swaths” appear to be somewhat larger than a county and about the size of a Congressional District in area. Usually a state will have anything from 5-6 up to a couple of dozen demographic swaths.
July 2nd, 2008 at 4:33 pm EDT
The GOP is having an identity crisis lately. Several years ago, hawks and the religious right and big business all formed a coalition. The basic problem was as simple as this: It was an unparalleled disaster.
People now realize that ‘We can win by killing enough people’ was foolish. Our military misadventures has caused a decrease in security.
People now realize that ‘Those treehuggers are just idiots’ sentiment was foolish. Our climate is changing in ways we can see.
People now realize that religion and morality are in no way the synonyms that they pretend to be.
So despite the fact that the Democrats are just as fragmented as ever, they are now more united than the Republicans.
Our nation works best with a balance of right and left. Hopefully the tragedy of the last several years will spark the GOP to abandon their insane ideology and become an asset again.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:01 pm EDT
I would have to agree with most of the people on this blog about the border issues as well as the economic issues that we are facing now…but I would have to leave a major disagreement with the view on Huckabee as a chosen VP. I honestly cannot see him in a higher leadership position than what he is in right now. Huckabee does not have enough credentials to back him up, and he was a train wreck with his decisions he made over major court issues in Alabama during his governorship. When questioned about the case during his presidential campaign in 2007, Huckabee denied pressuring any parole board members to release DuMond (the sexual predetor), despite three of the parole board members stating that they felt he (Huckabee) did pressure them to do so. Huckabee’s official website states: “Governor Huckabee either denied Wayne DuMond’s clemency request, or took no action (which is the same as a denial) on four separate occasions.” The website states that it was Governor Jim Tucker who “made Wayne DuMond immediately eligible for parole,” which, his website says, is granted by the parole board and not by the governor. I know I seem biased in this, but this is not only one of the major reasons why I could not see him in office, but also because he does not have enough positive history and trustworthy background on his resume. McCain needs to choose a VP that will assist him in leading this country back to our roots, which is definitely Freedom. Right now, Huckabee just isn’t my choice. I would rather see Colin Powell in before Huckabee. My main choice right now would be Mitt Romney, even though he is not of my faith, that is something that I has never been a major concern, just so long as the VP can help build our country back to what America was before. A strong Country, a stronger military, and a stronger emphasis on family values. To me that means, Christian family values mainly, but I do respect other religions too, as long as they are not placing our country in jeopardy of losing these core values that I mentioned earlier. We need to unite not only as a Republican Party, but as a Conservative View, in order to have McCain win this upcoming election. I will be voting for McCain no matter who the VP is, but I just wanted to place my thoughts on this issue here as well. Cheers
joey