Email this Print

Mountain West now a battleground for Obama, McCain

Dante Chinni

Posted: 06.09.2008 / 10:19 AM EDT

As the general-election campaign gets under way, the nation’s troubled economy is fueling talk of a new red-and-blue map that has become a staple in American politics.

For past couple of presidential cycles, watching the electoral map being colored in on election night was almost like watching the movie “Groundhog Day.” The Northeast, West Coast, and areas around the Great Lakes largely turned blue (Democratic) while the Great Plains, Mountain West, and the South generally turned red (Republican).

If the nation’s political fault lines shift in 2008 and the map changes, the region most likely to see states take on a new hue may be the Mountain West.

In 2004, President Bush defeated Sen. John Kerry by less than five points in New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. This fall, the interior West again appears to be a big battleground. Already the campaigns of Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama have signaled plans to target these states with shifting political landscapes.

The Patchwork Nation’s 11 community types offer some insights on the three states’ chances of flipping.

New Mexico: The Land of Enchantment seems the most likely of the three states to switch its allegiance in 2008 because it has been fickle during the past few elections. In 2000, Al Gore won it by less than 1 percent. In 2004, President Bush carried the state by nearly the same margin.

New Mexico’s two biggest blocs of voters live in rapidly growing counties (“Boom Towns”) as well as places with a significant number of evangelical Christians (“Evangelical Epicenters”), both of which went for Senator Kerry in 2004 by slight margins. In 2008, Senator Obama stands to gain because it means he needs to pick up only a few votes from the state’s other counties in a year political analysts say favors the Democrat.

Economic hardships in Bernalillo County, a “Boom Town” home to Albuquerque and about 32 percent of the state’s population, may also affect the presidential race. In April, 147 homes in the county were in some stage of foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac. Obama’s message of change may especially resonate where people are hurting most.

Senator McCain, on the other hand, may choose to focus on “Immigration Nation” counties, which hold 22 percent of the state’s population and went heavily for Mr. Bush in 2004. During the primaries, Obama failed to carry any of these counties in New Mexico known for their high Hispanic populations.

Ultimately, Los Alamos County, a “Monied ’Burb” that Patchwork Nation is tracking, could tip the state to the Democratic or to the GOP candidate. The county went for Bush by a small margin in 2004, and according to Patchwork Nation’s correspondents, it looks to be divided between the parties again in 2008.

Colorado: Three community types hold the bulk of the electorate in the Rocky Mountain state: the “Industrial Metropolis” of Denver; the surrounding “Monied ’Burbs;” and the “Evangelical Epicenters” largely in the western part of the state. Together they make up 92 percent of Colorado’s population.

Of the groups, only Denver went Democratic in the 2004 presidential race, and the big margin there offset Bush’s win in the “Evangelical Epicenters.”The linchpin for the state (in 2004 and most likely in 2008) are the “Monied ’Burbs,” which hold 54 percent of the state’s voters. The housing market figures to be an important factor for voters here. The eight “Monied ’Burbs” counties in Colorado were among the top 20 counties in terms of foreclosure rates in April. More than 3,100 homes in the area were in some state of foreclosure in April.

Nevada: The Silver State comes down to Clark County, a “Boom Town” accounting for 71 percent of the state’s population. The rest of Nevada’s residents primarily live in “Evangelical Epicenters.” Fewer than 1 percent live in “Service Worker Center” counties.

Clark County went for Kerry by about 5 percent in 2004, but that Democratic margin could widen in this election because of the economic downturn.

Similar to many “Boom Towns” that had rapid growth in the beginning of the decade, Clark County is feeling the effects of the mortgage crunch but to a much greater degree. More than 6,500 homes in Clark were in some state of foreclosure in April – 1 of every 114 homes in the county.

A poor economic situation probably favors Obama as the “change” mantra will be more welcome in places where people are hurting.

None of this is set in stone, of course. With months of campaigning ahead and many twist and turns to come, the picture of any state in June is subject to change. But as the general election campaign begins these three states do appear ripe for “flipping” in 2008.