A Clinton landslide in West Virginia that she hopes echoes elsewhere
Dante Chinni
Posted: 05.14.2008 / 8:12 AM EDT
Her win was big. The 41-point victory she racked up was not only decisive, it was enormous. And even though there wasn’t a big swing in delegates for her, she did pick up at least a few.
Overall, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton had much to feel good about Tuesday night. And no, she’s not giving up. While she just gently poked her opponent Sen. Barack Obama in her victory speech, she again outlined her argument about how she was the better general-election candidate.
Senator Obama’s campaign, however, was trying to put a different spin on the night.
Obama was not only in a different state, not only in a different time zone, he was campaigning in a different election. He was in Missouri, which held its primary long ago, talking about November and presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain.
The goal was to make Senator Clinton’s victory look less like a win against an actual opponent than a pickup game followed by a pep rally on her home court without significance. It was meant to blunt any momentum Clinton might claim from her landslide win.
It was also a calculated gamble, because it meant he spent barely any time in the state. And while West Virginia was never going to be Obama country, as Patchwork Nation noted Monday, a little campaigning may have helped the Illinois senator’s margin of defeat. After all, no state likes to be ignored.
For sure, in terms of demographics, West Virginia was tailor-made for Clinton. But that doesn’t take away from the scale of her victory. Every single county and every Patchwork Nation community type in the state went for her.
Clinton routed Obama in the community types that have been her strongholds during the primary season: the state’s 14 “Emptying Nests,” nine “Tractor Country” counties, and seven “Evangelical Epicenters.” She took it to him in the state’s eight “Service Worker Centers,” which have been good to her in this region of the country.
Clinton also defeated him in the state’s five “Boom Town” counties, a community type that the two candidates tend to split.
In the end, even the college students couldn’t help Obama in West Virginia. He lost all eight of the state’s “Campus and Careers” counties including Monongalia, the home of West Virginia University where he lost by double-digits. In most states, big college towns have been Obama turf.
Clinton may cite that as evidence that the tide is turning. She talked Tuesday night about how West Virginia is a swing state that the Democrats must win.
Obama will probably write it off as what happens when he doesn’t campaign in a state that favors her. He may note, too, that in 2004 President Bush won West Virginia by 13 percent, a margin that doesn’t scream swing state.
Now it’s on to the primaries in Kentucky and Oregon next Tuesday. According to the latest polls, Obama appears likely to win in the Pacific Northwest, while Clinton is poised to pick up another victory in the Appalachians.
Meanwhile, Clinton hopes her win in West Virginia was so massive that it moves some of those numbers – in Oregon as well as in Montana and South Dakota – where experts say Obama will do well on Jun. 3.
Time will tell.
We’ll spend some time over the next few days checking in with our Patchwork Nation communities in Kentucky (Hopkinsville) and Oregon (Lincoln City) to take their electoral temperatures.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:19 am EDT
Obama should seriously worry about what 160,000 voters in West Virginia think in a nation with a population over 300 million? You have to be a pundit to be concerned.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:26 am EDT
There’s a great deal of intellectual sloth here…the media doesn’t want to have to try to conceptualize how a Democrat could win the presidency without winning the states that were lost in the last election. Ever heard of a realignment? Not every presidential race is a do-over of the last two presidential races.
[Admin: Readers don't think this comment adds to the discussion.]
May 14th, 2008 at 9:33 am EDT
Hate to rain on your parade, Sunny, buy Florida and WV are already going McCain. The same people who won’t vote for a “Negro” for president won’t vote for a woman in a race against a white man. The sadistic side of me wants Hillary to win just so I can laugh as the stubbornness of Hillary’s decrepit white voters is repaid in spades by a McCain Supreme Court!
May 14th, 2008 at 9:38 am EDT
Look at the exit polls. About 25% of the people that voted for Hillary are McCain voters. Look at the CNN exit polls. They show that 29% of the people that voted in the Democratic Primary plan to vote for MCCain in the fall. Of those 70% voted for Hillary. Of the people who said that neither Obama nor CLintion shared their views the majoity voted for Hillary. Of those that said that they would not be happy if a Democrat won in November the majority voted for Hillary. Of those that said that race was a major factor in who they voted for (22%), 81% voted for Hillary. Hillary’s “win” was composed of McCain supporters and racists. Not much of a “win” IMO.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:43 am EDT
Sunny,
If Hillary does lose the nomination, she would never run as an independant. She’s got too much loyalty to the Democratic Party. If she ran as an independant, than McCain would surely win the General Election.
Also, Florida and Michigan were the only states that moved their primaries up beyond a certain date, thus the punishments. I think that Florida should be counted, but I see no way of seating the Michigan delegates (Obama not being on the ballot).
And lastly, the DNC is doing exactly what you say the people want. They’re letting it play out. Otherwise they’d have chosen a candidate by now.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:45 am EDT
Yes Hillary, run as an Independent… we will all support you, we WILL NOT VOTE for Obama
May 14th, 2008 at 9:46 am EDT
THIS IS NOT THE “BIG” WIN THAT WILL INFLUENCE MANY NEW VOTERS FOR HILLARY, NOR LOSE MANY FOR OBAMA. WHILE THOSE VOTERS ARE IMPORTANT BECAUSE THEY ARE PART OF OUR NATION, THEIR VOTES WERE A FORGONE CONCLUSION. I THINK, HAD I BEEN OBAMA, I WOULD NOT HAVE SPENT A LOT OF TIME AND MONEY THERE EITHER. IT IS DIFFICULT TO CHANGE THE MINDS OF SOME VOTERS IN SOME PLACES. THE TIME AND MONEY SPENT IN PLACES WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE MAKES SENSE TO ME.
ALSO, FOR HILLARY TO RUN AS AN INDEPENDENT WOULD BE POLITICAL SUICIDE. SHE IS NOT A FOOLISH WOMAN!
May 14th, 2008 at 9:58 am EDT
Barack Obama will save the world whether you like it or not!
May 14th, 2008 at 10:47 am EDT
Ken Says:
“Barack Obama will save the world whether you like it or not!”
Uh-oh.
May 14th, 2008 at 12:09 pm EDT
I think Obama did what he thinks is best at this point in the campaign .. start to focus on challenging McCain on core issues. Do you really think we (democrats) should wait any longer to do so?
Let’s not continue the infighting any more, I wonder how many tax dollars will be spent, how much more fuel used for Hillary to go back and forth across states - It seems like she is always flying - I liked Rocky - but Rocky didn’t win by consuming tons of energy and running up huge debts - He trained in a barn.
May 14th, 2008 at 1:04 pm EDT
The moral standard in our country is sinking so fast. The attitude of not taking anything seriously and be responsible is a big problem for our future. Obama has been using drugs in his adult life. The media is proudly praising that he is speaking honestly instead. It is a corruption! There are proofs on the internet saying HE has been using drugs even when he was 38 years old on the state senator seat. I won’t even consider him as an option until he can clairfy these doubts. The media conspiracy is so obvious. It is also very malicious for a campaign to use young kids’ emotions. Even if it could be an effective way of gaining votes but it shows low moral standards to me.
I don’t want my kids or their generation to think “going ahead to try drugs since it is a “GOOD experience” helping our president grow up and ease the pain!” It is a corruption. Anyone with a reasonable judgement should see through the brain wash from the media and stop vote for him until it could show up the integrity!
May 14th, 2008 at 1:14 pm EDT
Obama’s win in NC proves beyond any doubt that he is a racially-based candidate. He can’t win the general election with just the blacks and the young. It would be another ‘Tsongas’ election! Clinton’s win in Indiana, by a slim margin, also raises the big question why Obama lost a state that he is supposed to win! With her win in WV, it is a loud alarm bell to warn the democrats that Obama, yet again, can’t connect with the majority of the Americans. The press ignores that Obama’s head was just given to him on a platter for the general election!
The media continues to be anti-Clinton. Her win should be presented in the proper context of the quality of each of these candidates’ electability!
The media has robbed the people of this country to see a strong campaign to continue in a fair and balanced manner. It is the worst kind of unprofessional and unethical journalism!
May 14th, 2008 at 1:16 pm EDT
So Ittech, What you are saying is that having Obama would increase the likelihood that your kids will use drugs? What about the likelihood that it might help your kids realize that we are actually living in a more equitable society than the one you grew up in?
May 14th, 2008 at 1:19 pm EDT
I believe that Obama is backed by the majority of the population … this includes Calif but not Michigan cause he was not on ballot there. This is seen by looking at the popular vote.
May 14th, 2008 at 1:41 pm EDT
HILLARY CLINTON CAN BEST WIN IN NOVEMBER:
IT’S ABOUT ELECTABILITY !!!
It’s time for everyone to face the truth. Barack Obama has no real chance of winning the national election in November at this time. His crushing defeat in Pennsylvania, and loss in Indiana and West Virginia makes that fact crystal clear. His best, and only real chance of winning in November is on a ticket with Hillary Clinton as her VP.
Sen. Obama has zero chance of winning against the republican attack machine, and their unlimited money, and resources without Hillary Clinton. Zero chance.
It is absolutely essential that the democrats take back the Whitehouse in November. America, and the American people are in a very desperate condition now. And the whole World has been doing all that they can to help keep us propped up.
Hillary Clinton say’s that the heat, and decisions in the Whitehouse are much tougher than the ones on the campaign trail. But I think Sen. Obama faces a test of whether he has what it takes to be a commander and chief by facing the difficult facts, and the truth before him. And by doing what is best for the American people by dropping out of the race, and offering his whole hearted assistance to Hillary Clinton to help her take back the Whitehouse for the American people, and the World.
Sen. Obama is a great speaker. And I am confident he can explain to the American people the need, and wisdom of such a personal sacrifice for them. It should be clear to everyone by now that Hillary Clinton is fighting her heart out for the American people. She has known for a long time that Sen. Obama can not win this November. You have to remember that the Clinton’s have won the Whitehouse twice before. They know what it takes.
If Sen. Obama fails his test of commander and chief we can only hope that Hillary Clinton can continue her heroic fight for the American people. And that she prevails. She will need all the continual support and help we can give her. She may fight like a superhuman. But she is only human.
Don’t be fooled by the pledged delegate, and math arguments. Neither candidate has the necessary pledged delegates. The entire delegates counts, and votes from Florida, and Michigan are not even being counted. Plus the democratic caucuses, and primarys have been heavily corrupted by fraud, and vote cheating. The only relevant question now is who can best WIN IN NOVEMBER and take back the Whitehouse for the American people. And the answer is HILLARY CLINTON. Everyone knows that now.
Sincerely
Jacksmith… Working Class
May 14th, 2008 at 3:32 pm EDT
Wow Jacksmith… You’re total ignorance is astounding! Have you even READ a piece of news (news, not opinion!) in the last, say, month? The Republican “infinite money” machine is at an all time low. Hillary is in the tank for over $20M and yet Obama has more than enough, and is still receiving donations. There have been 3 special elections in which democrats have won in Republican strongholds. Where was the unlimited money there? Where was this vicious attack machine? And do you honestly believe that the rest of the country was sitting around yesterday holding it’s breath to find out what W. Virginia thought? If so, you either live in WV or are very delusional. Why would anyone care what the center of 1940 values thinks in this day and age.
You spout the HRC party line very well. I’d say keep it up, but then again, you won’t have much more time to do so. This is a time for change in America and that means it is NOT the time for HRC, simply because it wouldn’t be CHANGE.
You sign off as working class, as if that is some badge of honor for ignorance. Well, I’m working class too, but somewhere along the line I actually learned how to read. You should give it a try sometime.
May 14th, 2008 at 4:02 pm EDT
I can see that you don’t want Obama to win in November, Jacksmith. If you saw him as I do, you would know that he has to win this primary and the election in the fall. It’s not jus a matter of getting the Democrats back in the White House, it’s a matter of changing business as usual in Washington and leading the world toward a more perfect future.
The reason Obama has more money is that his campaign has benefitted from millions of contributions from people like me who see his value and the needs of our time. Why don’t Clinton’s supporters contribute?
I know Clinton is fighting hard. She is a great warrior, but what we need now is a president, one who can unite us and bring peace, not war, into the world and our lives. It is peace that we hope for and are willing to sacrifice for, now and in the fall. Having the ability to make peace is a higher lever of warrioring than simply putting up a good fight. Every kindergardener knows that, along with the value of good sportsmanship.
If you really want a Democrat back in the White House, why wouldn’t you vote for Obama if he gets the nomination? Is it just sour grapes? Don’t you believe in the issues he has in common with Clinton? What kind of citizen are you?
May 15th, 2008 at 6:43 am EDT
I was going to chide this writer for his (and the Monitor’s) Hillary-itis, but severa others have already done it so well that I don’t have to. A sore loser is still a loser.
May 15th, 2008 at 10:00 am EDT
The bottom line for Obama (I am a supporter) is that - there is a lot of work to be done.
No point in being like Billary and writing states or blocks of voters off. In this case the Appalachian whites.
There is work to be done. Indiana - Obama and volunteers closed the gap by hitting the street and working hard.
Same needs to be done in general. No use looking for white knights (in VP pick).
Time to take a break. Lay out detailed agenda for governance - Affordable Health Coverage, Withdrawal plan, Globally Competitive trainingworker support, Reasonable Safety Net, Best of both worlds Fiscal policy; And hit the street; And win one vote at a time as they have done in primary.
The effort needs to be tied into the General election as well so we get people in who is support him in white house.
That is way forward and way to change. None of us is perfect. The thing is to understand and appeal to each others best sense and move on.
Race, gender and other bs will matter - only when there is other failings. Failing to acknowledge and work sensibly against and around it. Lets not be like Billary fanatics. There is work to be done.