Cities, new voters push Obama forward in Indiana
Dante Chinni
Posted: 05.07.2008 / 6:03 AM EDT
There was a certain feel to Sen. Barack Obama’s speech last night in Raleigh, N.C. He didn’t win both Indiana and North Carolina last night, but he sure sounded like he did.
More than in past speeches Senator Obama talked like a presidential nominee. He thanked Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for putting up a good fight, and then took on the man who is likely to be his rival in the fall: Sen. John McCain.
Clearly, the thinking was that his 14-point victory in North Carolina was overwhelming and that the squeaker loss in Indiana was close enough. He advanced his lead in pledged delegates. He advanced his popular vote advantage. His nomination became all but certain.
The results, when viewed through the prism of the Patchwork Nation map, do show some reason for optimism in the Obama camp. He won in some important places last night, particularly in Indiana, and he has made some inroads in areas that had been Senator Clinton’s core constituency.
Obama won a big “Emptying Nest” county (Allen), a community with a large share of older voters. He won a few “Monied ’Burbs” counties immediately around Indianapolis (Boon and Hamilton) that are well above 90 percent white. He also won an “Immigration Nation” county (Elkhart), which has a good-size Hispanic population.
He won those places he had to win, too. We wrote last week that the three counties Patchwork Nation classified as “Industrial Metropolis” (Marion, Lake, and St. Joseph, the respective homes of Indianapolis, Gary, and South Bend) were crucial for him. Last night, he carried all of them.
Perhaps just as important were the close margins by which he lost in “Emptying Nests,” which have been reliably in Clinton’s corner throughout this primary season. Although these counties were with her again, in Benton County, Montgomery County, and LaPorte County, her margin of victory was within 6 percentage points.
Principally, Obama was helped by the unique landscape in Indiana, which has more diversity in some of its counties because the population is spread out.
For example, Allen County, that big “Emptying Nest,” holds Fort Wayne, a city that is 17 percent African-American. And the African-American vote went for Obama by 93 percent in Indiana, according to exit polls. While Obama did keep a few of those “Emptying Nests” counties close, Clinton buried him by big margins in the majority of them, particularly those on the east side of the state, farther away from Obama’s hometown of Chicago.
In the end, however, the close results in Indiana on Tuesday may turn out to be a triumph of organization for Obama, which helped put him over the top in several counties.Throughout the primary campaign, Obama has drawn in new voters. The biggest increases in new registrants in Indiana came from the biggest Obama counties, as we noted Monday. In some places, they may have made a real difference.
Allen County, for instance, had an increase of 9,000 new voters since January, the third-largest increase in the state. Obama won that county by fewer than 8,000 votes. St. Joseph County, with all those Notre Dame collegians, had 7,400 new voters registered since January. Obama won there by about 3,200 votes.
It’s not that those votes fundamentally change the results, but new registrations across the state made the results even closer than they might have been and they certainly made the map look better for him by giving him a few more counties.
May 7th, 2008 at 4:06 pm EDT
Has Lake County ever explained why it took them so l o n g to count the votes? Not the least bit suspicious or anything, just wondering.
May 7th, 2008 at 5:15 pm EDT
There were some delay in retrieving everything and having to truck it to where it needed to be counted.
“immigration nation” sounds a bit racist. In any case the Latino’s are Clintons base not Obama’s.
If he sounded like he won both it’s just that after all the dire predictions of the pollsters and Clinton’s “Game Changing” challenge and Rush’s push for a Clinton vote among Republicans…I guess losing by 1.4% looked like a win.
May 7th, 2008 at 7:45 pm EDT
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May 8th, 2008 at 10:53 am EDT
Hi,
I write from the Far East very far from USA but it is important for US here in that a poor candidate can have economics disaster for US here and also eventually for USA as what bad economics do to us will ‘hit’ USA later. It goes in a circle back to USA.
Americans must today know what and who to vote, it is that very important.
We feel strong here in the Far East, a “negative” candidate on world economics will doom many outside USA and will cause a free world shrink in the market.
Look it is not “change” that is the “crux” of the vote but rather what POSITIVE CHAGE” there are for USA and also to the World.
Americans must today be HAVING more than just “plain awareness” that there is a Japan, a China, a Australia, A Singapore, A Canada or even good old USSR - Russia. American must know today that the free world’s trade is inter - twine. example the Mortgage Crisis. THE EFFECTS ARE AL OVER THE WORLD. yes ??
So what are the positive change that these two have?? Clinton has more in this as she had seen many of the outside of America doing their tradings than this Obama.
Clinton is better suited to bring solid changes of value to the economics
of world trade and also a ‘certainty’ of that change than Obama.
Obama is not a ‘face of Change’.
Obama has got no new plans for ‘a solid change’ that can be certain to bring results to the economy.
WHY?
Obama is a “NEW BOY” in this “NETWORK”. A NEW FACE does not bring trust, therefore no certainty to any “NEW PLANS” Obama has, if any, ‘if’ I say ‘if any’ - it will meet and make many to question and question.
It “mire” in dust usually and no good do come out of it.
So here we see nothing for Obama to say Obama has a new toy - in the Far East
we don’t look upon Obama as the Candidate to lead.
WE don’t see Obama as having that what America represents, As a Black person
(sorry to say this, Obama will carry over to us, in the Far East, negatively, owing to “perception” a Black person cannot be that great or able to do things)
The Far East will then look upon America as a Whole” a little lower in ’stature’. America will be view as less of a Leader - there fore America will get a “worse time” in negotiations for anything and everything.
America will be viewed less wholesome and if allies they will be less of an America to be “looked” up too.
This Obama will lose American Leadership in the world standing - American will also see Oama in the same way, as such America can become a “Fractured Society” when there should be Unity.
So Obama can only bring Disunity not “unity” as his campaign slogan says.
For us Clinton is the more able candidate not Obama.
It is Economics and Leadership that America must have. It is never a “race” thing, as Obama is been portrayed as a poor struggling Black that deserve my vote.
Americans should not vote with race in mind but the strong reasons for a Better tomorrow and Leadership for America in the world and that brings a GOOD TOMORROW, not controversies.
Obama may have his change say in the two more elections down the road as he make his networking of Trust with the World outside America.
Regards,
David
May 8th, 2008 at 11:42 am EDT
David, you are a victim of pepetuation. Americans tend to vote for an incumbent or the most familiar name. That keeps us locked into our habits. Obama is a new name but how can you be sure he has no ideas. Look at these:
He opposes the ridiculous gas tax holiday as do 230 economists and numerous columnists and magazines.
He criticized Clinton for saying the U.S. would obliterate Iran if it attacks Israel. Do you think Ammericans want a full-out air war that would incense the 22 Arab-Muslim countries plus the European Union, and would possibly be the end of the world?
He wants to meet with the so-called “rogue states” leaders in search of harmony.
He has consistently opposed our invasion of Iraq.
The mortgage crisis was allowed by earlier officials who pandered to home-eeekers by allowing ARM’s & zero-payment down.
OBAMA 08!
Ernest
May 8th, 2008 at 11:53 am EDT
To David: that was a very interesting letter you wrote. Thank you for your thoughts. Truthfully, I don’t think you have to worry too much about who wins this election; our economy chugs along despite the poor quality leadership which we elect every 4 years. In the USA, political gridlock means economic progress. Whoever wins in ‘08 will probably find themselves with a hostile legislature by 2010.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:57 pm EDT
Obama is an excellent public speaker and wonderful dreams for the future. Little experience could mean little corruption. but he has NO FOREIGN POLICY EXPERIENCE whatsoever. iraq, iran, north korea, lebanon, whatever you want to do, it is of crucial importance. we should speak to the foreign diplomats, but i do not believe Obama will know what to do in hostile or even approaching-hostile situations in the future. Obama would be a great domestic advisor or in charge at home. but COMMANDER IN CHIEF OF THE GREATEST ARMY IN THE WORLD……im not so sure to say the least
May 9th, 2008 at 8:36 am EDT
David,
Are you an american citizen and able to vote in this election? I’m curious to know this since you have so much to say about the candidates.