Three cities pivotal to Indiana’s primary
Dante Chinni
Posted: 04.28.2008 / 1:33 PM EDT
As the Democratic Party looks ahead to its next Super Tuesday, this one on May 6, the battle lines are being drawn around Indiana.
The Hoosier State isn’t the only primary battleground that day; North Carolina will also hold its contest. But Sen. Barack Obama has a solid lead in North Carolina’s polls, so the new conventional wisdom for the next week goes: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton must win Indiana or her campaign may be finished, again.
These days, every primary vote seems to be a cliffhanger for Senator Clinton.
A new poll by American Research Group shows Clinton with a five-point lead in Indiana. So what does the state’s political landscape look like through the frame of Patchwork Nation? The final tally may be determined by turnout, particularly in counties that would seem to favor Senator Obama.
In many ways it’s odd that Indiana is playing such a significant role in the Democratic primary process. The state hasn’t voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in November since 1964 and probably won’t break the pattern in 2008.
Democrats do have a few strongholds in the state, and if Obama is going to win next Tuesday, they will be critical to his victory.
For this analysis, Patchwork Nation has classified three of those counties in the state as “Industrial Metropolis” – Marion (home of Indianapolis), Lake (home of Gary), and St. Joseph (home of South Bend). Though Marion and Lake are respectively labeled “Minority Central” and “Emptying Nest” on the Patchwork Nation website map, they are also both high matches for the Industrial Metropolis category because of their urban cores. They have a more diverse and younger population than the state as a whole, and the outcomes are likely to be similar to those of other big cities in this primary season.
Those three counties will be key for Obama because they contain 34 percent of the state’s population. In the 2004 presidential race, however, they only represented about 33 percent of the vote.* If Obama can drive up turnout in those counties, his chances for carrying the state improve.
He also will look for high turnout in Monroe County, a “Campus and Careers” locale, home to the University of Indiana, which slightly underperformed in turnout in 2004.*
Indiana’s voter registration numbers have increased since the first of the year – they are up 150,000 – but no party breakdown is available for the numbers. However, that breakdown hardly matters in this case because the state has an open primary, meaning residents of any political affiliation are allowed to vote in the Democratic contest.
For Clinton, the good news is likely to come from the “Emptying Nests” counties, characterized by an older population and a higher concentration of Evangelicals. In general elections, Republicans typically carry these counties by a large margin. In the ‘08 Democratic primaries, they have been Clinton territory in nearly every state.
In Indiana, Emptying Nest counties account for a good chunk the state’s population – 21 percent, much more than Pennsylvania’s Emptying Nests population of 12.5 percent. And in 2004, they also slightly outperformed their population figures in terms of turnout.* Many of these counties had a participation rate greater than 60 percent. It remains unclear how far these Republican-leaning counties will tilt in Clinton’s direction in the state’s open primary.
The third biggest block of voters in Indiana, come from the state’s “Monied ‘Burbs” communities. These places were hotly contested in Pennsylvania and will likely be again next week. These 20 counties, many based around Indianapolis, hold about 17.5 percent of the state’s population, but they also make up a larger portion of the state’s voters. In November 2004, 18.4 percent of the state’s vote came from these locales.*
* NOTE: This post replaces an earlier entry from this morning. That post was taken down because a data merge/computation mistake resulted in incorrect 2004 voter turnout figures. Those numbers have been corrected in this post. That entry also referenced “Tractor Country” counties, but the remerged and recalculated figures indicate “‘Monied Burbs” areas will be more crucial in Indiana.
April 28th, 2008 at 5:26 pm EDT
Dante, Your mother-in law gave me the web. I really enjoyed your article, and will be very interested in reading those that are to come…
Mario
[Admin: Readers don't think this comment adds to the discussion.]
April 28th, 2008 at 7:52 pm EDT
DEBATE! DEBATE!! DEBATE!!!
It’s time for everyone to face the truth. Barack Obama has no real chance of winning the national election in November at this time. His crushing defeat in Pennsylvania makes that fact crystal clear. His best, and only real chance of winning in November is on a ticket with Hillary Clinton as her VP.
Hillary Clinton seemed almost somber at her Pennsylvania victory speech. As if part of her was hoping Obama could have proved he had some chance of winning against the republican attack machine, and their unlimited money, and resources.
But it is absolutely essential that the democrats take back the Whitehouse in November. America, and the American people are in a very desperate condition now. And the whole World has been doing all that they can to help keep us propped up.
Hillary Clinton say’s that the heat, and decisions in the Whitehouse are much tougher than the ones on the campaign trail. But I think Mr. Obama faces a test of whether he has what it takes to be a commander and chief by facing the difficult facts, and the truth before him. And by doing what is best for the American people by dropping out of the race, and offering his whole hearted assistance to Hillary Clinton to help her take back the Whitehouse for the American people, and the World.
Mr. Obama is a great speaker. And I am confident he can explain to the American people the need, and wisdom of such a personal sacrifice for them. It should be clear to everyone by now that Hillary Clinton is fighting her heart out for the American people. She has known for a long time that Mr. Obama can not win this November. You have to remember that the Clinton’s have won the Whitehouse twice before. They know what it takes.
If Mr. Obama fails his test of commander and chief we can only hope that Hillary Clinton can continue her heroic fight for the American people. And that she prevails. She will need all the continual support and help we can give her. She may fight like a superhuman. But she is only human.
Sen. Hillary Clinton: “You know, more people have now voted for me than have voted for my opponent. In fact, I now have more votes than anybody has ever had in a primary contest for a nomination. And it’s also clear that we’ve got nine more important contests to go.”
Sincerely
Jacksmith… Working Class
April 28th, 2008 at 8:01 pm EDT
Any of Ms. Clinton’s supporters, since so many mention her experience, could give me a detail or indicate a website where I could read about her 35 years of experience?
Undecided voter — Americans Abroad
April 28th, 2008 at 8:45 pm EDT
How about voting Hillary in is like getting Two Presidents at the price of one.
April 28th, 2008 at 9:41 pm EDT
I am looking for someone as my President who will tell me the truth “Not lies”
I am looking for someone who understands where I’ve been and the shoes I stand in. Not someone who makes 109 million a year by making deals with foriegn companies.
I want someone who know what it is like to sit at the kitchen table with a spouse that is loved and cherished and discuss how to pay the bills. I don’t want to share these values not with someone who sits at the table and discusses how to best lie to the American people.
I want a president that may not be perfect but attends church, loves America, not only the symbol of a flag pin.
I want a person for President with loyality, not to a lying cheating man, but to the ideas of what our country can continue to be.
I am An American Vet. who values integrity, honesty, and an unfailing alliegence to the truth.
Obama has an understanding unlike Hillary and Mccain , who have been taken care of by the American public since college. They have been collecting money from the American people since they have been in college. They have no clue even how to pay the electric bill. They have been “taken care” of their whole life. They are truely out of touch.
America’s best bet for our country is Obama!
April 28th, 2008 at 9:44 pm EDT
jacksmith is a lier…hillary clinton’s florida and michigan votes do not count. if you want to play you should know the rules1
April 28th, 2008 at 10:00 pm EDT
35 years of experience lying? Is that what you mean? 35 years denying her cheating husband is having affairs? Is that what you mean? jacksmith??? YOU MIGHT be the bitter idiot (those are your words) YOU SOUND BITTER, if you think that a Harvard educated, Harvard Law Review, University professor who is very intelligent will not have a handle on economics. Did YOU go to college to learn these things??? I place my bet on an intelligent man, who wants to bring unity to politics. Do you want the same old stinky dirty political game, where you think you have political power, but you really don’t? Well if that means I am an idiot, that is Doctor idiot is what I am… I educated myself from working class, as did Barack Obama…. so who is the idiot? I think this man has much to teach us, and I think any one using the insulting words you just did jacksmith has proven that, it takes one to know one.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:00 pm EDT
jacksmith misses one big point. Hillary is so divisive that she is managing to get even lifelong democrats to dislike her. Bill was a great President, and I’d vote for him again in a second, but he is NOT the candidate! Moderates and independents will flock to McCain, who can claim more experience than Hillary and Obama put together. But this is not about Washington experience. It’s about change.
Obama’s campaign is funded by millions of small donors, including me. I’ll hold my nose and vote for Hillary if I have to, but the independents are the key to winning, and they will go to McCain.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:01 pm EDT
I hope we can focus on some basic truths about the democratic candidates. Hillary Clinton nor Bill, of that matter, has any idea how to tell the truth. We hear them outright lie and then claim they were either mistaken, or didn’t say what they said, on tape. Obama is a fresh voice with years of public service under his belt and the ability to manage a brilliant campaign and to surround himself with people who have knowledge where he doesn’t. Hillary seems intent on getting us into endless conflicts with the rest of the world. I’m tired of the endless conflict. Why is it bad to have a candidate who actually sounds like a democrat? Someone who belives that respecting other counties’ governments might lead to a safer world. Its time that more of us make our voices heard in the electoral process and not cede our country to the monied elite like the Clinton’s or the Bushes anymore.
As the primaries drag on, one thing is clear, the Clinton’s will do anything to gain power again, including taking down the Democratic Party this election, so that she will be able to take another run in 2016, when McCain will be too old to challange her.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:02 pm EDT
oh and one last thing jacksmith, have you not been online? where have you been? Barack Obama’s campaign is mostly a grassroots effort. People like you and me, who are excited about his new ways of thinking and hope. It is HILLARY who took money from the insurance companies, SHE is the sell out. Do your research next time.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:07 pm EDT
well said Linda, thanks for being more diplomatic than I was. I agree with you 100%
April 29th, 2008 at 2:26 am EDT
LIES & NEGATIVES FROM OBAMA & COMPANY:
FIRST; he denied having any relationship with Tony Rezko and contended he had only spend 5 hours with him, discussing lawyer/client matters. He finally admitted knowing Rezko for a long time. He admitted Rezko raise funds for his campaign but the amounts that he provided were different in 3 occasions increasingly at each time.
SECOND; he lied about being aware or hearing that his friend-mentor-pastor had made any anti-white; anti-American; and anti-Semitic statements. Five days later he admitted that he had heard Jeremiah Wright make some of the controversial statements.
THIRD; he said he never had accepted campaign contributions from oil corporations. We later learned he has accepted thousands of contributions from Exxon/Mobile etc. He even ran a Campaign Ad saying he did not take money from oil corporations.
FOURTH; he said he had never accepted campaign contributions from subprime loan corporations. Then, we learned he has accepted over 1.5 millions from the top ten that are presently under investigation.
FIFTH; he criticized NAFTA for its weaknesses and promised he would make changes to it. He then told Canada it was just all political talk and that he was not and is not going to change anything.
SIXTH; in 2002 he made a one sentence statement regarding his position on the Iraq War. He thought it was not a good idea; would be expensive and there would be consequences. IN 2003, after the brief victory in Iraq, he said he was wrong about the War and that he just did not have the information Congress had at the time.
IN 2004, he said he supported and stood by Bush’s position on the war. LATER, IN 2004, 2005, 2006, he voted for continuing the war. Now, in his speeches, he lies to the American voters and contends he has always been against the Iraq war; as if he has never supported and/or voted for it
SEVEN all surrogates that was fired in his campaign are only white people. No matter how wrong Rev Wright has been, he refuses to delineate him.
EIGHT He lied about Kennedy’s fund was the reason that his father was bought to American. His father was already in American long before Kennedy decided to help the Kenyan to America; However Ted Kennedy & relatives was sucked in by OBAMA while those of Bob Kennedy roots for Hillary.
NINE: OBAMA filled up a liberal survey with his own handwriting on it and yet he denies it and he puts the blame on his staff MISINTERPRETING HIM.
TENTH: Go to Factcheck to see his Oil spill which contradicts to OBAMA’s ad
OBAMA DID NOT CHANGE CHICAGO,
OBAMA DID NOT CHANGE REZKO & THEIR CORRUPTION.
OBAMA DID NOT CHANGE REV. WRIGHT AND HIS CHURCH
(OBAMA has close ties with REZKO who is on trial for corruption and MANY politicians there are involved.)
Why should we believe that OBAMA can change Washington?
What sort of changes will HE bring?
HOW COME NOBODY ASK THESE QUESTIONS BEFORE CHANTING FOR OBAMA?
April 29th, 2008 at 3:41 am EDT
As an American living overseas, I cringe at most of what I read on these posts that use the most trivial, inane, knee-jerk responses in an effort to continue the failed policies of a Nation I love. I served under our glorious flag during the debacle labeled as Vietnam, and as many other servicemen from that era, believed that America would NEVER AGAIN become involved in such foolish folly.
Is 40 years too hard to look back upon and remember? Where is our sense of history, and the reflective thought it requires, in order to make sound, rational judgements? During my years in SE Asia, my parents reflected upon a frightening situation going on in our educational system. The shift from teaching History, Civics, Government etc, as well as structural English, and the increased emphasis on sports. Quality of education became a victim to the hype,about which High School won the most athletic championships, and sent kids off to colleges with athletic scholarships, while the academic achievers were just shunted aside, getting very little recognition for their acheivements. By the way, my parents were 30+ years veterans of dedicated teachers, the type that saw the potential in EVERY child, and brought out the best in every student they taught!! Even today, when I return to my home in the US, I still meet people that were students of my parents, and they all wish for the type of teachers that were the peers of my parents.
All that leads to this salient point: Who among us had the right to choose our color, status, nationality, BEFORE we were born? Call it a blessing, or a curse, because NONE OF US MADE THAT CHOICE!!! With that fact in mind, what can we do to improve upon our fate, WITHOUT blaming someone else, or taking advantage of others? No matter if you believe in God or not, the concept of treating others as you wish to be treated, is a LEARNED trait, taught to you by those that were given the responsibility to teach you how to interact in society. Between home, school,and for some, their faith, mankind is taught how to become “civilized,” and this does not happen in an empty space.
Like in the early days of computers, there was an acronynm: GIGO. Garbage in, garbage out. The same applies to all of us as humans, if we accept garbage to found our knowledge base, we respond with more garbage. What ever happened to critical thinking? What happened to diligent research? With the advent of the computer and the internet, more knowledge is available to ANYONE and EVERYONE, but it seems that most are too lazy to check ALL the facts, “cherry-picking” what suits their agenda, passing over all other facts, hurrying to justify their conclusions. Does this seem “Fair and Balanced?”
In my travels overseas over the past 3 months, I am often asked about our Presidental campaign, and the most prevalent question I’m asked is: “Why are the American people so interested in the “dirt” that is being tossed around, and NOT DEMANDING FOR THE CANDIDATES TO DISCUSS THE ISSUES?” Whether we Americans realize this or not, the entire world has a vested interest in our future!! Just look at the entire world situation, our future as a nation has a direct impact upon the entire world, and we as a nation, will have to face up to the decisions our leaders make, whether we like it or not!!
I’m returning to the States for just ONE REASON, to vote for my choice of President!! I’m NOT taking a chance on a mail-in ballot, I will stand in line at my polling place, entering my voting booth, and vote for the person I feel will bring decency and accountability to the Office of The President, even if it means writing in the name of my candidate, if they are not on the ballot!! I pray that EVERY voter makes the same wise choice, after doing due diligence in researching where each candidate stands, and not be led down the path of sound bites, “gotcha journalism,” and other methods of coercing people to make a decision based upon pure emotion!! The WORST decisions we all make, are usually based upon “How I felt at the time,” and when we reflect upon our mistakes, we wish that we had made a factual decision, as opposed to the emotional decision.
Good Luck, and God HELP America!!
April 29th, 2008 at 7:15 am EDT
I am an older (over 50) white woman making less than $50,000 per year, and have been politically active since I was a small child. I whole-heartedly support Barack Obama for President. He grew up without privilege, and yet his life traverses many life ways that make up American culture. He is brilliant and was educated by winning scholarships and taking out student loans (which he recently finished repaying). Rather than taking a lucrative position at a big law firm, he worked as a community organizer, helping out-of-work steel mill emploees and effecting change from the ground up. He went into state politics, acquitte himself admirably, and organized an incredibly effective grassroots campaign against the wishes of the Illinois Democratic Party to become the candidate and eventually the junior Senator fom Illinois. As a presidential candidate, he has again defied the odds, banking on the maturity and ability of the American electorate to listenand evaluate critically, to become the frontrunner in a primary that was supposed to be Hillary Clinton’s to lose. He has out-raised all previous presidential candidates without taking PAC or lobbyist funding. He has amassed a donor base of nearly 1.3 million individuals across the nation. He has mounted a 50-state strategy (how elitist is it to say that only big states matter, anyway?), broken voter registration and voter turnout records across the country.
You say you don’t know this man? Read one of his three books. Rather than having been in the spotlight, he’s been on the streets and in the halls of the legislature making change happen for those in need.
You say he keeps company with undesirable individuals? What about the Clinton fundraiser now spending time in prison for fraud? What about that little incident in the 1970s with the Keating 5? Perhaps the real thing you don’t know about is the type of sermon and mode of speaking that goes on in African-American churches throughout the country week after week–has for a century and a half, at least. Do we not have freedom of speech guaranteed by our Bill of Rights? Do we not have freedom of association guaranteed by our Bill of Rights? Do you seriously believe that a church (or any religious community) is only the sum total of its pastor?
You say his judgment is in question and that he’s not strong or tough enough for the job of president. I’ll go with the guy who had the judgment and the courage to speak out against the invasion of Iraq in 2002 when that was not a popular thing to do. I’ll go with the guy who had the guts and savvy to buck the Illinois Democratic Party (not known as a demure or easy-going entity by any stretch of the imagination–if you don’t believe that, just review coverage of the budget battle last year and watch it all gear up again) and mount a successful senatorial campaign. I’ll go with the guy who has the leadership and managerial ability to develop and run a national campaign that has defied all the oddsmakers and the pundits.
He lacks experience, you say? He’s not the candidate suggesting we gut our federal funding mechanism for infrastructure maintenance to save a few pennies per gallon on gasoline. It was an administration with a collective resume of huge amounts of experience that ignored the threat of Osama bin Laden, got us into the Iraq war, ran up our national debt, and plunged our country into a serious recession. I’ll take the guy with fresh ideas, a firm understnading of the way society works from the bottom up, and knows the value of plain hard work.
I wiill be voting for Barack Obama, and I hope you will, too.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:08 am EDT
There is only one reason why Obama is in the position he is in as a junior senator with hugh ambition. Its a word that most of the press fears saying because of alienating a small segment of American society. However, Rev. Wright has put it into perspective and has brought it out in the open. Obama will never be president because he has never been about CHANGE. What he has been about is making bad decisions with respect to whom he associates in order to feed his ambition. Obama, the man has a lot more to show before he can ever be president. Obama will lose sooner of later and it can be attributed to his own deficient judgments and back stepping for those he used along the way to now. It’s called blind arrogance that one is better than others in either judgment or actions. READ between the lines of his book! He will never have my vote.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:46 am EDT
I have three questions.
The first is ‘why do people give Bill, or Hillary for that matter, credit for the economic bubble created by the dotcom years?’, especially considering it’s bursting was the initial market indicator that has led us to where we are today. When I think of Clinton economics, I rightly think of NAFTA - it’s their baby.
My second question is ‘why do so many people get upset when a black pastor says the same things as many former cabinet members and CIA agents who are white and no one gets upset about it?’. I’m saying that Rev. Wright speaks of ‘blowback’, which is unintended consequences directly resulting from your own actions. It is term commonly used, and it’s concept is commonly accepted. Unfortunately the only reason I can come up with is racism, conscious or not.
My third question is ‘why doesn’t anyone talk about the Peter Paul vs. Hill/Bill Clinton case of massive campaign finance and business fraud that is just getting underway?’. http://www.paulvclinton.com/ I may not watch news on a nightly basis, but I am informed, and I have not heard a single segment on this from any network. It wreaks of something…
April 29th, 2008 at 11:09 am EDT
Some of all you have posted is true about both candidates. Neither candiate is without fault. Ask yourself what’s important to you right now on the issues only and which candidate you feel will be able to carry that through. All this other bashing of the candidates need to left to the press. Why do you have to put someone light out just to shine your own? You all need to grow up, shut up and go vote.
April 29th, 2008 at 12:53 pm EDT
It’s INDIANA UNIVERSITY and not the University of Indiana.
April 29th, 2008 at 1:23 pm EDT
Actually, it isn’t. See here: http://www.indiana.edu/
That’s why at he end of their cheers they say “IU”
April 29th, 2008 at 1:28 pm EDT
Scratch that. We did it wrong in the piece… and as a Big Ten grad I apologize.
April 29th, 2008 at 1:47 pm EDT
As a graduate of the university, I can tell you it’s Indiana University in Bloomington, not University of Indiana.
April 29th, 2008 at 3:42 pm EDT
Sil,
I, too, want to see all that Clinton “experience” catalogued in one place. ANYONE? PLEASE?
April 29th, 2008 at 4:17 pm EDT
Of course we can provide you with Hillary’s experiences! I love this woman, she is a fantastic role model for people in US, abroad, and especially little girls around the world. Read her page on Wiki. She is amazingly talented, she is the woman that’s been consistently breaking barriers and building roads for her predecessors. And that’s exactly what she is doing now, being the first woman again. Her personality unfortunately is not very familiar to most people, so they hate her with no real basis, just because she does not giggle and is serious. Which I don’t think should be anyone’s basis for electing a candidate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Rodham_Clinton#cite_note-bernstein-170-93
April 30th, 2008 at 3:37 am EDT
McCain represents the past - he is too old - nice guy though.
Hilary is doing it for Hilary - she attracts older voters who are stuck in the past.
The clear choice for Americans is Obama. He is attracting younger voters and that is how you change and build a nation - especially in times of economic and social doom and gloom. Ignore the distractions by the media. He is the best we have seen in a long long time. Dont let him go. He is America’s only hope.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:21 am EDT
I love how all of these comments that i’m reading about Obama all say that he’s clearly the most honest, and that he knows about ‘change’. Tell me, what exactly is he planning on changing? Oh that’s right, you don’t know. . none of us do because with the exception of a few mentions of technology and ‘ending racial profiling’, then man has ZERO platform.
Heh. . . such as the old addage goes, ‘it’s not who’s best, it’s who’s most presentable.’
All it took was 35 seconds of you listening to him speak a whole lot about nothing and he has you all wrapped in his web of empty, unclear promises of ‘change.’
I can’t find anyone to give me a valid reason why they like Obama other than his skin color, his gift of being an orator or ‘change’ just for the sake of change. You know who else ran on a ‘change’ campain? Jimmy Carter. All of you youngsters go ahead and look up how his administration fared, seeing as you are predominantly the only ones supporting Obama.
Oh. . and for the person who said that Obama was an every-man because he isn’t as wealthy as the other two. . . read a book please. Better yet, Google his net worth. Don’t let a smooth talker fool you.
Remember kids, a movement in an unguided direction is not necessarily progression.