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A broad-based victory for Clinton

James Gimpel

Posted: 04.24.2008 / 8:37 AM EDT

The results from the Pennsylvania primary uphold the conventional wisdom that affluent communities remain in play. Our tabulations show that the locations we classified as Monied ‘Burbs divided their vote pretty evenly between the candidates: Sen. Barack Obama received 47.7 percent and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won 52.3 percent. About one-third of the Democratic Party’s votes in Pennsylvania came from these locations.

The big cities (Industrial Metropolis), however, were more one-sided, with Senator Obama winning 57 percent of the vote, directly contrary to his statewide performance of 45 percent. Even so, these were his best counties, with the rest of the state moving forcefully the other way. About 32 percent of the total Democratic vote came from these places.

Senator Clinton racked up impressive margins in the rural, small and medium-size towns around the state.  In areas with concentrated elderly populations (Emptying Nests), she won 64 percent of the vote. In small nonindustrial cities (Service Worker Centers), she won with 72 percent. In the most rural places (Tractor Country), she won 70 percent. Collectively, these three location categories cast about one-third of all Democratic votes, just slightly more than our Monied ‘Burbs category, and comparable to the 32 percent of the vote cast by the two urban counties (home to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh).

Obama, for his part, did well in large college towns, such as State College, home of Penn State (Centre County with 60.1 percent), but not so well in smaller college towns. Our Campus and Careers community type ultimately went for Clinton by 54 percent to 46 percent.

Clearly, Clinton had more success in Pennsylvania competing for urban and suburban Democrats than Obama had reaching out to small-town and rural Democrats. Perhaps Obama’s “bitter” remark took its toll.

In the end, Obama’s base was geographically narrow, anchored to major metropolitan areas, and dropping off steeply once outside the largest cities and their suburbs. The exit polls indicate that he won comfortably only in Philadelphia and lost in suburbs, small cities, small towns, and rural areas.

These results raise questions about how broad a base his candidacy will develop in the general election - how far outside big-city limits it will extend.

The Pennsylvania election exit polls show that Obama’s base is also demographically narrow, confined primarily to African-Americans, very rich Democrats, and the youngest voters.

Clinton, on the other hand, won a majority of whites in every age bracket; a clear majority of Democrats who even occasionally set foot in church - Obama handily won seculars. She also won those with less than a college education; gunowners; union and nonunion households; and all but the super-rich (those earning more than $150,000) and those with very low incomes (earning under $15,000), many of whom are students.

Clinton only barely lost liberals 51 percent to 49 percent, while she won both moderates and conservative Democrats. Hers was a decisive victory in its breadth, and the Democratic superdelegates might do well to study these results as they ponder the challenging path ahead.