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The race goes on (and on?), and Clinton scores with Service Worker Centers

Dante Chinni

Posted: 04.23.2008 / 8:01 AM EDT

 PHILADELPHIA – Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton got her double-digit win in Pennsylvania and the fight for the Democratic nomination goes on – for now anyway.Though the delegate count remains largely unchanged, Senator Clinton has a psychological victory that boosts her and allows her to seek the money she needs to continue campaigning.

Philadelphia’s always important suburbs did indeed prove crucial to the tally. Clinton’s big win in Bucks County, for instance, by more than 20 percent, helped her hold down Sen. Barack Obama’s numbers. Even in the “Monied ’Burbs” where Senator Obama did well, such as Chester County, the margins were closer.

But it may be even more significant that she swept the state’s Service Worker Center counties, a community type that also figures to be key in November.

There was never any doubt about the vote in the city itself. Some political observers figured the final city tally could go as high as 70 percent for Obama. It wound up at 65 percent. Still, the campaigning was intense, particularly in Center City (downtown) where both campaigns wanted to make themselves visible. There, in the shadow of City Hall, people carrying signs for both candidates engaged in what could best be described as a shout-off in the late afternoon.

At about 5 p.m. Mayor Michael Nutter, a Clinton supporter, arrived to shake hands with commuters taking the subway home. Clinton supporters surrounded Mayor Nutter for a photo op, but Obama followers interrupted the scene, trying to shout over the Clinton chants.

Nutter, who had been hopscotching across the city since 7 a.m., persevered, shaking hands and talking to constituents.“We haven’t had this kind of excitement in a while,” Nutter said as he prepared to make his way to his next stop. “We’ll take it. And then we’ll figure out what to do with it. A little pushing and shoving, it doesn’t matter. It’s just another day in a political campaign in Philly.”

In the run-up to the primary, many people had cited the racial tensions in the city as a potentially important factor. Some voters around the city revealed their vote choices, and it appeared at least that some breakdown of the vote went along racial lines.

The racial disparity was apparent during the downtown rally, too. The Clinton supporters were mostly white and older. The Obama supporters were mostly African-American and some were quite young.In the city’s 30th ward, which has some neighborhoods that are evenly split between whites and blacks, turnout was high. At the polling place at Greater St. Matthews Baptist Church, one poll worker estimated that the figure could easily end up at 60 percent. But discerning how the vote would turn out was difficult because people didn’t stay and talk.“I would say the neighborhood is probably going Obama,” said Gail Gross, an interior designer, who voted for Clinton. “In most elections this is a social place. People would come out here with chairs and chat.

“I think people feel torn. They like both candidates and they don’t want to talk about who they voted for and hurt others’ feelings.”Gross acknowledged that there was a “racial element” underlying the vote, but thought it wasn’t crucial. Her dream scenario, she said, is for the two candidates to share the Democratic ticket. She believes that it’s still possible despite the harsh words between the two candidates and their campaigns. Of course, that is likely to continue now.

How can last night’s result be viewed through the prism of Patchwork Nation? That answer isn’t easy. The Patchwork Nation project is best designed to study the general-election campaign, not the primary contests.

Some of these counties, regardless of whom they vote for in the primaries, will go Democratic or Republican in November. Philadelphia, for instance, will go Democratic in the fall no matter who the nominee ends up being, while the state’s “Emptying Nests” counties will go Republican.

But Clinton’s strength in the state’s Service Worker Center counties is noteworthy because they look to be battlegrounds in November. She may use her victories in these counties to argue that she is better qualified to duke it out with GOP Sen. John McCain in the general election.

4 Responses to “The race goes on (and on?), and Clinton scores with Service Worker Centers”

  1. Sandy Fackler Says:
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    Double digit win for Hillary? According to NPR this morning, it was 9%. Ok so I’m quibbling about a single digit but let’s be accurate, please.

  2. Dante C. Says:
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    Well, our 10% figure came from rounding official figures early this morning.

    And NPR did put the number at 9%. The New York Times site also has it at 9% as of 2:45 pm. However, as of 10 minutes ago CNN’s site still had it at 55% to 45%. And the PA Secretary of State’s office has it at 10% with rounding.

    However, Obama’s followers may take some comfort in the fact that the final tally looks like it will be a few decimal points under 10%.

  3. Constance Gill Says:
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    A double-digit lead was “required” to keep Hillary Clinton in the race, so a double-digit was reported by the PA Secretary of State. Hillary has friends in the Pennsylvania hierarchy.

    It’s sort of like making an early acceptance speech in Texas, before the predictable results from the Caucuses were available.

    I hope that was all that was manuipulated. Who is in charge of checking into voting irregularities?

  4. Christopher Hartman Says:
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    Good column, Dante. And I heard from several news outlets today that the vote was 55% to 45% Clinton.

    Personally I support Obama, but one has to marvel at the uber-cynical efficiency with which Clinton and her surrogates have managed to define Obama in a racial and religious context during this primary campaign.

    From former Sen. Bob Kerrey’s “Hussein” comments to the William Ayers “Weathermen” association, to the excerpted Jeremiah Wright statements, and similar points consistently raised by former President Clinton, a composite of Barack Obama was carefully and exquisitely crafted - and very effectively planted in the minds of largely (but not exclusively) rural white voters in carefully targeted states. Pennsylvania, like Ohio, was a perfect setting for this strategy, and it proved devastatingly effective.

    Of course, one cannot reasonably associate Barack Obama with Muslim/terrorist efforts - but in the end, this doesn’t matter. Like Nixon’s Silent Majority and the Reagan Democrats, all you have to do is raise fears, and that’s as good as a smoking gun. In the end, it wins elections. And that’s all that matters. Right?

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